scholarly journals Bayesian state-space models with multiple CPUE data: the case of a mullet fishery

2017 ◽  
Vol 81 (3) ◽  
pp. 361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Sant’Ana ◽  
Paul Gerhard Kinas ◽  
Laura Villwock de Miranda ◽  
Paulo Ricardo Schwingel ◽  
Jorge Pablo Castello ◽  
...  

We propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical structure of state-space surplus production models that accommodate multiple catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of various fisheries exploiting the same stock. The advantage of this approach in data-limited stock assessment is the possibility of borrowing strength among different data sources to estimate reference points useful for management decisions. The model is applied to thirteen years of data from seven fisheries of the lebranche mullet (Mugil liza) southern population, distributed along the southern and southeastern shelf regions of Brazil. The results indicate that this modelling strategy is useful and has room for extensions. There are reasons for concern about the sustainability of the mullet stock, although the wide posterior credibility intervals for key reference points preclude conclusive statistical evidence at this time

2006 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jon T. Schnute ◽  
Rowan Haigh

Abstract Fisheries management often relies heavily on precautionary reference points estimated from complex statistical models. An alternative approach uses management strategies defined by mathematical algorithms that calculate controls, like catch quotas, directly from the observed data. We combine these two distinct paradigms into a common framework using arguments from the historical development of quantum mechanics. In fisheries, as in physics, the core of the argument lies in the technical details. We illustrate the process of designing a management algorithm similar to one actually used by the International Whaling Commission. Reference points and surplus production models play a conceptual role in defining management strategies, even if marine populations do not obey such simplistic rules. Physicists have encountered similar problems in formulating quantum theory, where mathematical objects with seemingly unrealistic properties generate results of great practical importance.


2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Partho Protim Barman ◽  
Md. Mostafa Shamsuzzaman ◽  
Petra Schneider ◽  
Mohammad Mojibul Hoque Mozumder ◽  
Qun Liu

This research evaluated fisheries reference points and stock status to assess the sustainability of the croaker fishery (Sciaenidae) from the Bay of Bengal (BoB), Bangladesh. Sixteen years (2001–2016) of catch-effort data were analyzed using two surplus production models (Schaefer and Fox), the Monte Carlo method (CMSY) and the Bayesian state-space Schaefer surplus production model (BSM) method. This research applies a Stock–Production Model Incorporating Covariates (ASPIC) software package to run the Schaefer and Fox model. The maximum sustainable yield (MSY) produced by all models ranged from 33,900 to 35,900 metric tons (mt), which is very close to last year’s catch (33,768 mt in 2016). The estimated B > BMSY and F < FMSY indicated the safe biomass and fishing status. The calculated F/FMSY was 0.89, 0.87, and 0.81, and B/BMSY was 1.05, 1.07, and 1.14 for Fox, Schaefer, and BSM, respectively, indicating the fully exploited status of croaker stock in the BoB, Bangladesh. The representation of the Kobe phase plot suggested that the exploitation of croaker stock started from the yellow (unsustainable) quadrant in 2001 and gradually moved to the green (sustainable) quadrant in 2016 because of the reduction in fishing efforts and safe fishing pressure after 2012. Thus, this research suggests that the current fishing pressure needs to be maintained so that the yearly catch does not exceed the MSY limit of croaker. Additionally, specific management measures should implement to guarantee croaker and other fisheries from the BoB.


2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (7) ◽  
pp. 1149-1162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin A. Staton ◽  
Matthew J. Catalano ◽  
Brendan M. Connors ◽  
Lewis G. Coggins ◽  
Michael L. Jones ◽  
...  

Salmon populations harvested in mixed-stock fisheries can exhibit genotypic, behavioral, and life history diversity that can lead to heterogeneity in population productivity and size. Methods to quantify this heterogeneity among populations in mixed-stock fisheries are not well-established but are critical to assessing harvest–biodiversity trade-offs when setting harvest policies. We developed an integrated, age-structured, state-space model that allows for more complete use of available data and sharing of information than simpler methods. We compared a suite of state-space models of varying structural complexity to simpler regression-based approaches and, as an example case, fitted them to data from 13 Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) populations in the Kuskokwim drainage in western Alaska. We found biological and policy conclusions were largely consistent among state-space models but differed strongly from regression-based approaches. Simulation trials illustrated our state-space models were largely unbiased with respect to spawner–recruit parameters, abundance states, and derived biological reference points, whereas the regression-based approaches showed substantial bias. These findings suggest our state-space model shows promise for informing harvest policy evaluations of harvest–biodiversity trade-offs in mixed-stock salmon fisheries.


2008 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 367-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Jiao ◽  
Christopher Hayes ◽  
Enric Cortés

Abstract Jiao, Y., Hayes, C., and Cortés, E. 2009. Hierarchical Bayesian approach for population dynamics modelling of fish complexes without species-specific data. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 367–377. Modelling the population dynamics of fish complexes is challenging, and many species have been assessed and managed as a complex that was treated as a single species. Two Bayesian state-space surplus production models with multilevel priors (hierarchical models) were developed to simulate variability in population growth rates of species in a complex, using the hammerhead shark complex (Sphyrna spp.) of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts of the US as an example. The complex consists of three species: scalloped (Sphyrna lewini), great (Sphyrna mokarran), and smooth hammerhead (Sphyrna zygaena). Bayesian state-space surplus production models with multilevel priors fitted the hammerhead data better than a model based on single-level priors. The hierarchical Bayesian approach represents an intermediate strategy between traditional models that do not include variability among species, and highly parameterized models that assign an estimate of parameters to each species. By ignoring the variability among species, confidence intervals of the estimates of stock status indicators can be unrealistically narrow, possibly leading to high-risk management strategies being adopted. Use of multilevel priors in a hierarchical Bayesian approach is suggested for future hammerhead shark stock assessments and for modelling fish complexes lacking species-specific data.


2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre E. Punt ◽  
TzuChuan Huang ◽  
Mark N. Maunder

Abstract Punt, A. E., Huang, T., and Maunder, M. N. 2013. Review of integrated size-structured models for stock assessment of hard-to-age crustacean and mollusc species. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70:16–33. Crustaceans and molluscs such as crabs, rock lobsters, prawns, abalone, and oysters constitute large and valuable fisheries. However, assessments of these species are hampered because they cannot be production aged, in contrast to many teleosts. The major data sources for these species, in addition to catch and abundance index data, are the size compositions of the catches and of any fishery-independent indices. Assessments of such species have been conducted using age-based methods of stock assessment, as well as surplus production models. However, size-structured methods are now preferred because they can make full use of size-composition data, are able to integrate multiple sources of data, and produce the types of outputs which are needed for management purposes. An advantage of size-based models over age-based models is that all processes can be size-based, and these processes can modify the (unmodelled) size-at-age distribution. We review these methods, highlighting the choices that need to be made when developing integrated size-structured stock assessments, the data sources which are typically available and how they are used for parameter estimation, and contrast a number of such assessments worldwide.


Fisheries ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (6) ◽  
pp. 88-94
Author(s):  
Nikolay Zherdev ◽  
M. Pyatinsky ◽  
Inna Kozobrod

Stock assessment of Azov sea roach Rutilus rutilus (Linnaeus, 1758) has been performed by CMSY model in period 1999-2019 by data-limited modelling in R. The current population status – in biological safe zone for stock biomass and no overfishing signals (B2019/BMSY = 1,32, F2019/FMSY = 0,53). Perhaps, current paper results can be a slightly incomplete in background that there is no relevant data about IUU fishery ever exists, which can lead to fishing mortality underestimation. Azov sea roach population continue to be in “depleted” status after river flow regulation in 1950’s. Joined continuous biomass estimates time series over whole fishing his-tory 1932–2019 showed at least 2 population collapses: in 1940’s and 1980’s years. According to model re-sults TAC (total allowed catch) should be accepted at level 516.9 t. If the recommendation is followed stock biomass will stay at safety in level 1828.1 t. Data limited modelling shows a good performance for sea roach in background of data lucking and in this reason still the best choose against cohor or surplus production models.


2016 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 936-946 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Mohsin ◽  
Yongtong Mu ◽  
Aamir Mahmood Memon ◽  
Muhammad Talib Kalhoro ◽  
Syed Baber Hussain Shah

Author(s):  
Bruna Abrenica ◽  
Johnson Paran ◽  
Analuz Bernales ◽  
Mario Ruinata ◽  
Allan Poquita

The issue on the overfishing of parrotfishes, locally known as “molmol” (subfamily Scarinae under family Labridae), in the coastal waters of Bohol province in Central Visayas has been raised by the Provincial Agricultural and Fishery Council (PAFC) of Bohol through Resolution No. 1 series of 2018 that pushes for the implementation of “open and closed fishing season” of all parrotfishes in the entire province. In any management intervention, baseline assessment of the stocks in question should be done as a significant basis for appropriate measures to be taken, thus this study. In Bohol, apart from the economic value, they carry essential functions in maintaining the ecological balance in the reef ecosystem. Parrotfishes are considered economically important as preferred fish among locals and tourists. The stock assessment of parrotfishes in Danajon Bank in the Bohol Sea and Cebu Strait was conducted by the National Stock Assessment Program (NSAP) Region 7 from 2015 to 2018 in 16 coastal municipalities of Bohol. It recorded 24 Scarine species across six genera. The green humphead parrotfish (Bolbometopon muricatum), categorized as vulnerable under the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) red list, was noted in Cebu Strait in 2015. Scarus ghobban, comprising 82.25%, dominated the catch in Danajon Bank; Scarus forsteni (30.07%) in Bohol Sea; and Chlorurus sordidus (58.45%) in Cebu Strait. Among the Scarines, S. ghobban dominated across fishing grounds from 2015 to 2018 with an aggregate of 10,267.69 kg (or 63.94%) monitored catch equivalent to 0.26% relative to all other species surveyed in the same period. The assessment also indicated that among the 22 fishing gear types being observed as used in catching parrotfishes, speargun is the most prevalent or frequently used. Moreover, the same assessment showed that the catch seasonality of S. ghobban determined from spear gun appears to be abundant during the first quarter in a year; in June, August, and December when higher monthly mean Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE) were also noted. However, the annual mean CPUE of speargun has decreased from 11.93 kg/day in 2017 to 9.22 kg/day in 2018. Population parameters of S. ghobban as the top one species were estimated using the FAO-ICLARM Stock Assessment Tools (FISAT) software and Froese Indicator Tool. Biological indicators for S. ghobban show signs of overfishing as reflected on its high fishing mortality (F/M), decreasing average length below maturity length, decreasing catch per unit effort in the current year, low percentage of mature in the catch, and increasing exploitation ratio (E). All of which already breached the limit reference points. In 2017 and 2018, the mature size composition of the catch was only 1.9 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively, far off from the 90-100% target and below the 50% limit. The values indicate that majority of the samples were small sizes; however, it cannot be determined if they were juveniles since this study excludes reproductive sampling. Optimum length (Lopt) was estimated at 29 cm (Total Length); lengths within ± 10% Lopt range at 26.1 to 31.9 cm and megaspawner at 31.9 cm up. Based on the results, suggested recommendations are indicated herein for possible consideration of the policymakers.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document