scholarly journals Effects of Drought on Western Pond Turtle Survival and Movement Patterns

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathryn L. Purcell ◽  
Eric L. McGregor ◽  
Kathryn Calderala

Abstract Drought has the ability to affect the persistence of small animal populations, especially those tied to aquatic habitats. We studied the response of western pond turtles Actinemys marmorata to California's worst drought on record. From 2009 through 2015 we used telemetry to track movements and assess survival of 19 western pond turtles in a stock pond at the San Joaquin Experimental Range in the western foothills of the Sierra Nevada, in Madera County, California. In 2013 the pond dried in late summer and winter rains were insufficient for pond formation. The pond remained dry through the end of the study in March 2015. In years with below average precipitation the pond often dried completely in late summer; however, the lack of a pond forming in winter and spring had not been previously documented. We observed no mortalities of radiotagged western pond turtles in years with normal precipitation. All observed mortalities occurred in drought years and in years when the pond completely dried up in the summer or never formed. Results from known-fate survival models revealed that survival decreased with increasing drought. Model results also indicated that male survival was slightly higher than female survival (19.1% vs. 11.5%), although the 95% confidence intervals overlapped. We observed high variability in western pond turtle movement distances from the pond in the final 2 y of the study. Two individuals that survived to the end of the study showed unique movement patterns. One young male moved frequently, accumulating a large total distance, moved into new areas, and eventually found his way into a livestock water trough. The other, a young female, moved 2.6 km from the pond (a minimum total distance traveled of 3.3 km based on telemetry locations) and emigrated to a pond on a neighboring ranch. Turtles that died exhibited no distinctive behaviors. After the pond dried western pond turtles remained terrestrial for long periods, with one surviving individual remaining out of water for 617 consecutive days, which is an unprecedented finding for this species to our knowledge. Our findings suggest that increased frequency and severity of droughts can affect the resiliency of small, isolated western pond turtle populations, especially those in ephemeral aquatic environments. These small populations are essential to the long-term survival of the species because of the current fragmented distribution of the species.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lizet Sanchez ◽  
Patricia Lorenzo-Luaces ◽  
Claudia Fonte ◽  
Agustin Lage

Abstract Progress in immunotherapy revolutionized the treatment landscape for advanced lung cancer, raising survival expectations beyond those that were historically anticipated with this disease. In the present study, we describe the methods for the adjustment of mixture parametric models of two populations for survival analysis in the presence of long survivors. A methodology is proposed in several five steps: first, it is proposed to use the multimodality test to decide the number of subpopulations to be considered in the model, second to adjust simple parametric survival models and mixture distribution models, to estimate the parameters and to select the best model fitted the data, finally, to test the hypotheses to compare the effectiveness of immunotherapies in the context of randomized clinical trials. The methodology is illustrated with data from a clinical trial that evaluates the effectiveness of the therapeutic vaccine CIMAvaxEGF vs the best supportive care for the treatment of advanced lung cancer. The mixture survival model allows estimating the presence of a subpopulation of long survivors that is 44% for vaccinated patients. The differences between the treated and control group were significant in both subpopulations (population of short-term survival: p = 0.001, the population of long-term survival: p = 0.0002). For cancer therapies, where a proportion of patients achieves long-term control of the disease, the heterogeneity of the population must be taken into account. Mixture parametric models may be more suitable to detect the effectiveness of immunotherapies compared to standard models.


PeerJ ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. e6797 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hilmar Hinz ◽  
Olga Reñones ◽  
Adam Gouraguine ◽  
Andrew F. Johnson ◽  
Joan Moranta

The nursery function of coastal habitats is one of the most frequently mentioned and recognized ecosystem services in the valuation of coastal ecosystems. Despite its importance our understanding of the precise habitat parameters and mechanisms that make a habitat important as a nursery area is still limited for many species. The study aimed to establish the importance of different algae morphotypes in providing shelter and food for juvenile coastal fish during the main settlement peaks, in early spring and late summer, in littoral rocky reef systems in the Northwestern Mediterranean. The results of our study showed strong seasonal differences in algae cover, composition and height between the two sampling periods. Overall, during spring the algae were well developed, while in late summer, both density and height, of most algae decreased considerably. Equally, prey biomass, in form of suitable sized invertebrate fauna associated to the algae, decreased. Accordingly, the shelter and food for the fish settling in this habitat during late summer were less abundant, indicating a mismatch between the observed presence of juvenile fish and optimal habitat conditions. Differences in prey densities were detected between algae morphotypes, with structurally more complex algae, such as Cystoseira spp. and Halopteris spp. consistently containing more prey, independent of season, compared to simpler structured morphotypes such as Dictoytales. The study furthermore related juvenile fish density to habitats dominated by different algae morphotypes. Out of the three-study species (Diplodus vulgaris, Symphodus ocellatus, Coris julis) only S. ocellatus showed a significant association with an algae habitat. S. ocellatus related positively to habitats dominated by Dictoytales which provided the highest cover during late summer but had the lowest prey densities. A strong association of this species with Cystoseira, as reported by other studies, could not be confirmed. Cystoseira was abundant within the study area but in a state of dieback, showing loss and reduced height of foliage, typical for the time of year within the study area. It is therefore likely that algae-fish associations are context-dependent and that several algae species may fulfil similar functions. We also discovered that prey biomass did not appear to have an important effect on juvenile abundances. Nevertheless, the availability of prey may influence juvenile fish condition, growth performance and ultimately long-term survival. We therefore suggest that future studies on habitat quality should also include, besides abundance, indicators related to the condition and growth of juveniles.


2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert A. Leidy ◽  
Michael T. Bogan ◽  
Linnea Neuhaus ◽  
Leana Rosetti ◽  
Stephanie M. Carlson

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (7_suppl) ◽  
pp. 77-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew David Hellmann ◽  
Junshui Ma ◽  
Edward B. Garon ◽  
Rina Hui ◽  
Leena Gandhi ◽  
...  

77 Background: Pembrolizumab showed promising activity in patients with advanced non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in the KEYNOTE-001 study (NCT01295827) and significantly prolonged overall survival (OS) compared with docetaxel in the randomized KEYNOTE-010 study (NCT01905657). Responses to pembrolizumab appear to be remarkably durable, making long-term survival possible in some patients. Typical parametric survival models do not account for the possibility of long-term survival. An alternative, well-established class of statistical models called long-term survival models can be used to directly estimate the percentage of patients achieving long-term survival (>5 years), called “long-term survival rate.” (Berkson J, Gage RP. J Am Stat Assoc. 1952;47:501-515.)(Tsodikov AD et al. J Am Stat Assoc. 2003;98:1063-1078.) Methods: Data from patients with PD-L1–expressing (tumor proportion score ≥1%), previously treated, advanced NSCLC in KEYNOTE-001 and KEYNOTE-010 were used. KEYNOTE-001 data were used to initially estimate the long-term survival rate of pembrolizumab, while KEYNOTE-010 data were used for subsequent independent validation. Point estimates of long-term survival rates with their 95% CIs based on the model described above are reported. Results: Based on the long-term survival model, the estimated long-term survival rate in pembrolizumab-treated population in KEYNOTE-001 (n = 306) is 25.4% (95% CI, 15.2%-33.3%) and the intention-to-treat population who received pembrolizumab in KEYNOTE-010 (n = 690) is 25.3% (95% CI, 8.9%-36.9%). In contrast, the long-term survival rate of docetaxel arm (n = 343) in KEYNOTE-010 is estimated to be 3.2% (95% CI, 0%-17.4%). Conclusions: In 2 independent data sets, it is estimated that 25% of patients with previously treated PD-L1–expressing NSCLC may achieve long-term benefit from pembrolizumab monotherapy. Long-term survival models can provide an early estimate of long-term benefit from pembrolizumab using data with limited follow-up time. Long-term follow-up from these trials will further validate this finding. MDH and JM are co-first authors.


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 223-225
Author(s):  
Jeff A. Alvarez ◽  
Rodrigo Gaitan ◽  
Mary Shea ◽  
Sarah M. Foster

Circulation ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 118 (suppl_18) ◽  
Author(s):  
Serban Stoica ◽  
Kimberley Goldsmith ◽  
Nikolaos Demiris ◽  
Prakash Punjabi ◽  
Alan Faichney ◽  
...  

To characterize contemporary long-term results of AVR as a function of type of prosthesis and subsequent competing risks. 5470 consecutive patients had AVR ± CABG at 3 centers between 1993–2006. Microsimulation survival models were developed combining perioperative mortality estimates from multivariable modeling of individual patient data, UK survival and random effects meta-analyses of valve-related events. Outputs were predicted and event-free life expectancy, and lifetime event rates according to patient characteristics of age, sex, creatinine, valve type, and concomitant CABG. In multivariable analysis long-term survival was significantly influenced by age (hazard ratio, HR, 1.52 per 10-year increment), male sex (HR 1.20), bioprosthesis (HR 1.25) and pre-operative creatinine, but not by concomitant CABG. Recipients of bioprostheses had longer average life expectancy for implant ages from 59 onwards in both men (see figure ) and women. The improvement in event-free survival for mechanical prostheses was greater at younger ages (3.4 years for implant age 50) and extended to implant age 65. Concomitant CABG increased operative mortality but conferred only slightly shorter life expectancy and event-free life expectancy than for those having AVR alone. Creatinine also had only a small absolute effect on outcomes. Structural bioprosthetic valve degeneration was the most common long-term complication. Predictions from simulation models were in excellent agreement with UK Heart Valve Registry survival data. Aortic bioprostheses could be implanted in many UK patients aged 59–65 without significant long-term hazards.


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