In the Cooper-Eromanga Basin, the future of exploration lies in identifying an appropriate exploration portfolio consisting of stratigraphic traps in structurally low or flank areas. A variety of stratigraphic trap prospects in the Moorari and Pondrinie 3D seismic survey areas are identified in the Patchawarra, Epsilon, Toolachee and Poolowanna formations. To identify the stratigraphic traps, an integration of sequence stratigraphic concepts applied to non-marine basins and advanced 3D seismic data visualisation was employed. This paper focusses on estimating the chance of geologic success and the probabilistic reserves size for each prospect within its sequence stratigraphic context (lowstand, transgressive or highstand systems tracts). The geologic chance factors for an effective stratigraphic trap include reservoir, top seal, lateral seal and bottom seal within each depositional systems tract, the seal effectiveness of the adjacent depositional systems tracts and the appropriate spatial arrangement of these factors. The confidence values for the existence of geologic chance factors were estimated according to the distributions of the possible reservoir and seal rocks within each genetic-stratigraphic interval and the chance of geologic success of each prospect was calculated. For probabilistic reserves estimation, geologically reasonable ranges were estimated for each parameter employing Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the reserves distribution. When a series of possible exploration portfolios, including single or multiple prospects from the prospect inventory are plotted in terms of the chance of geologic success vs. the mean value of the reserves estimate, an efficient exploration frontier emerges. The portfolio candidates on the efficient exploration frontier were assessed with regard to chance of economic success and expected net present value (ENPV) using a simple cash flow model. The results indicate that appropriate portfolios include multiple prospect exploration especially with lowstand systems tract plays using single or multiple exploration wells. The portfolio construction approach for stratigraphic trap exploration should ultimately be made consistent with conventional play types, to enable an assessment of all exploration opportunities.
Coseismic and postseismic deformation associated with the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake, New Zealand: fault movement investigation and seismic hazard analysis
