Analysis of Individual Risk Attitude for Risk Management Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

2009 ◽  
pp. 254-270
Author(s):  
Fei-Chen Hsu ◽  
Hsiao-Fan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Court Case ◽  
Risk Response

In this chapter, we used Cumulative Prospect Theory to propose an individual risk management process (IRM) including a risk analysis stage and a risk response stage. According to an individual’s preferential structure, an individual’s risk level for the confronted risk can be identified from risk analysis. And based on a response evaluation model, the appropriate response strategy is assessed at the risk response stage. The applicability of the proposed model is evaluated by an A-C court case. The results have shown that the proposed method is able to provide more useful and pertinent information than the traditional method of decision tree by using the expected monetary value (EMV).

scholarly journals Using Improved Prospect Theory to Develop a Partner Selection Method for Virtual Enterprises with Unknown Weight

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Nina Su ◽  
Xianqi Zhu ◽  
Yunsheng Xin
Keyword(s):  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Virtual Enterprise ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Virtual Enterprises ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Fuzzy Language ◽  
Effective Organization ◽  
Language Environment

A “virtual enterprise” is an effective organization formed by enterprises and partners under market opportunity which can flexibly adapt to the dynamic market demand and improve the competitiveness of enterprises. To select virtual enterprise partners objectively and scientifically, this study proposes the evaluation model of the innovation resource capability of the alternative enterprises under the unknown weight. In the multigranularity hesitation fuzzy language environment, the unknown weight is solved by using fuzzy entropy theory. The risk attitude of decision-making enterprises is introduced by using the improved prospect theory and the selection of partners is comprehensively considered. Finally, a case study is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The research intends to enable the virtual enterprise to choose the partners swiftly such that they can compensate for the shortcomings and optimize the allocation of innovation resources.

ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC RISK MANAGEMENT AS A WAY TO IMPROVE THE EFFICIENCY OF CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.E. Manzhilevskaya ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Management System ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Economic Risk ◽  
Risk Management System ◽  
Economic Risks

The article analyzes the environmental and economic risks of construction production, and how to manage them. The article discusses the levels of environmental and economic risks and proposes a model for their management. Management of environmental and economic risks is based on the development of such a tool as risk analysis. The environmental and economic risk management system is a system of measures aimed at reducing the risk level of economic losses of objects of various production and economic levels due to environmental degradation.

scholarly journals Development of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Systems for Logistics System

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 92-103
Author(s):  
Ahmad Rusdiansyah ◽  
Della Deswiana Pratama ◽  
Muhammad Faisal Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Logistics System ◽  
Risk Response

Logistic activities are significant activities that pose various risks for the company. These risks can affect the company’s performance. To be able to compete in the globalization era, companies need proper risk management. This study aimed to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Systems. We offered four stages: risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation, and risk response. A case study was conducted to implement the proposed Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Systems. The results indicated that the proposed Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Systems were proven effective to be appropriately applied to evaluate company risks and provide mitigation recommendations.

Risk Management in Work Activities at Ammonia Plant Fertilizer Production Industry

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 196
Author(s):  
Dhea Rizky Novandhini ◽  
M. Affan Mahfudz ◽  
Indriati Paskarini
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Risk Control ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Potential Hazard ◽  
Fertilizer Production ◽  
Ammonia Plant ◽  
Production Industry

 Introduction: PT X is one of the companies in fertilizer production industry. There are two high-risk activities that endanger the safety and health of workers, namely supervision of welding and oil level checking in ammonia plant field of PT X. The purpose of this research was to apply risk management to the activities. Method: This research was a descriptive study which was carried out in observation using a cross sectional design. Variables in this study included hazard identification, basic risk analysis, risk control that has been done, existing risk analysis, and risk reduction assessment. The tools used for the data collection were observation sheets, interview guide sheets, and Job Safety Analysis sheets. Data that has been obtained through observation and interviews was processed using Fine (1971) semi quantitative technique. Results: The results of hazard identification were known to have as many as 6 potential hazards. The assessment results in the basic risk analysis showed that the initial risk level consisted of 3 risks with very high level, 2 risks with a substantial level and 1 risk with priority 3 level. After the risk control effort was applied, the results of the assessment in the existing risk analysis showed that the level of risk has decreased significantly. Conclusion: The value of risk reduction of each potential hazard results decreases by 95%, 88.89%, 85%, 93.33%, 66.67%, and 75%.Keywords: ammonia plant, fertilizer production industry, risk management

scholarly journals Analisis Risiko Kesehatan dan Keselamatan Kerja (K3) pada Perawat

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Iwan M. Ramdan ◽  
Abd. Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Low Back Pain ◽  
Back Pain ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Emergency Room ◽  
Mixed Method ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Low Back

Perawat merupakan petugas kesehatan dengan presentasi terbesar dan memegang peranan penting dalam pemberian pelayanan kesehatan. Dalam menjalankan tugasnya perawat berisiko mengalami gangguan kesehatan dan keselamatan kerja (K3). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis risiko K3 pada perawat di instalasi gawat darurat (IGD) Rumah Sakit Umum Daerah dr. H. Soemarmo Sosroatmodjo dalam rangka mencari upaya pengendalian risiko yang tepat sehingga perawat terhindar dari kecelakaan kerja dan penyakit akibat kerja. Penelitian mixed method telah dilakukan pada seluruh perawat di IGD yang berjumlah 20 orang (total sampling), penilaian risiko mengacu pada standar AS/NZS 4360:2004 tentang Risk Management. Untuk mengkaji likelihood, exposure, dan consequence digunakan pedoman wawancara dan job hazard analysis form. Penilaian tingkat risiko mengacu pada rumus dan tabel “William Fine”. Disimpulkan, bahaya level terbesar diperoleh pada tindakan memasang infus berupa risiko tertusuk jarum suntik, terpapar darah pasien, posisi tubuh yang salah, terpapar virus hepatitis, dan low back pain. Nilai Consequences (C), Exposure (E), dan Likelihood (L) pada tindakan ini adalah C:5, E:6, dan L:6. Rumah sakit disarankan untuk melakukan upaya pengendalian lebih lanjut sesuai dengan hirarki pengendalian K3.Kata kunci: Analisis risiko, instalasi gawat darurat, kesehatan dan keselamatan kerja, perawat. Health and Safety Risk Analysis of NursesAbstractNurses are health care workers with the largest presentation and plays an important role in the health services. In performing its duties, nurses are at risk for health and safety disturbances. This study aimed to analyse the risk of health and safety of nurses in the emergency room (ER) of dr. H. Soemarmo Sosroatmodjo Hospital, in order to find appropriate risk control so that nurses avoid to work accidents and occupational diseases. Mixed method research has been done on all nurses in ER which amounted to 20 nurses (total sampling). Risk assessment refers to the standard of AS/NZS 4360:2004 on Risk Management, interview guide and job hazard analysis form was used to assess the “likelihood”, “exposure”, and “consequence”. Assessment of risk level refers to the formulas and tables of “William Fine”. It is concluded that the greatest danger level obtained on the actions of an intra venous drip, consists of the risk of needlestick injuries, exposure to the patient’s blood, wrong body position, exposed to viral hepatitis, and low back pain. The values of consequences (C), exposure (E), and likelihood (L) in this action are C:5, E:6, and L:6. Hospitals are advised to make further control efforts in accordance with health and safety control hierarchy.Keywords: Emergency room, health and safety, nurses, risk analysis.

scholarly journals Path Choice of Emergency Logistics Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Chang-feng Zhu ◽  
Zheng-kun Zhang ◽  
Qing-rong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Logistics Network ◽  
Moment Estimation ◽  
Emergency Logistics ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
Uncertainty Environment

We study the problem of path choice for emergency logistics in this paper. Based on the uncertainty environment during the path choice from emergency logistics network and the bounded rationality of decision makers, cumulative prospect theory is introduced to study the problem of emergency logistics path choice with comprehensive consideration of path properties and risk attitude of decision makers. In addition, the decision behavior of decision maker with the attitude of risk seeking and risk aversion under limited rationality is comprehensively analyzed respectively. Based on the choice behavior, a strategy to demarcate the value of reference point value is also proposed, and an optimization model is used to obtain the combined weight based on the moment estimation. Finally, both the theory and model are verified by calculation and compared analysis in a case study. In addition, perturbation analyses of related parameter are carried out to further reveal the influence mechanism between the prospect value of each path and related parameters. The result shows that the decision-making model can make emergency logistics path choice with higher efficiency and reliability under different complex interference conditions.

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