Combination of Forecasts in Data Mining

2011 ◽  
pp. 589-593
Author(s):  
Chi Kin Chan
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Performance Improvements ◽  
The Past ◽  
Aggregate Information ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Combination Of Forecasts ◽  
Single Method

The traditional approach to forecasting involves choosing the forecasting method judged most appropriate of the available methods and applying it to some specific situations. The choice of a method depends upon the characteristics of the series and the type of application. The rationale behind such an approach is the notion that a “best” method exists and can be identified. Further that the “best” method for the past will continue to be the best for the future. An alternative to the traditional approach is to aggregate information from different forecasting methods by aggregating forecasts. This eliminates the problem of having to select a single method and rely exclusively on its forecasts. Considerable literature has accumulated over the years regarding the combination of forecasts. The primary conclusion of this line of research is that combining multiple forecasts leads to increased forecast accuracy. This has been the result whether the forecasts are judgmental or statistical, econometric or extrapolation. Furthermore, in many cases one can make dramatic performance improvements by simply averaging the forecasts.

Data Mining for Combining Forecasts in Inventory Management

2008 ◽  
pp. 2792-2797
Author(s):  
Chi Kin Chan
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Inventory Management ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
The Past ◽  
Aggregate Information ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Combining Forecasts ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
The Future ◽  
Single Method

The traditional approach to forecasting involves choosing the forecasting method judged most appropriate of the available methods and applying it to some specific situations. The choice of a method depends upon the characteristics of the series and the type of application. The rationale behind such an approach is the notion that a “best” method exists and can be identified. Further that the “best” method for the past will continue to be the best for the future. An alternative to the traditional approach is to aggregate information from different forecasting methods by aggregating forecasts. This eliminates the problem of having to select a single method and rely exclusively on its forecasts.

Data Mining for Combining Forecasts in Inventory Management

2005 ◽  
pp. 703-707
Author(s):  
Chi Kin Chan
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Inventory Management ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
The Past ◽  
Aggregate Information ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Combining Forecasts ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
The Future ◽  
Single Method

The traditional approach to forecasting involves choosing the forecasting method judged most appropriate of the available methods and applying it to some specific situations. The choice of a method depends upon the characteristics of the series and the type of application. The rationale behind such an approach is the notion that a “best” method exists and can be identified. Further that the “best” method for the past will continue to be the best for the future. An alternative to the traditional approach is to aggregate information from different forecasting methods by aggregating forecasts. This eliminates the problem of having to select a single method and rely exclusively on its forecasts.

An Overview of the Forecasting Methods Used in Real Estate Housing Price Modelling

2015 ◽  
Vol 73 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohan Munusamy ◽  
Chitrakala Muthuveerappan ◽  
Maizan Baba ◽  
Mat Naim Abdullah @ Mohd Asmoni
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Method Error ◽  
The Past ◽  
Housing Price Index ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Critical Constraints ◽  
Types Of Error

Forecasting is very fundamental in real estate where the past transactions become the evidences while decision making for the present and the future. Several techniques and validation approached that were commonly used in housing price index forecasting. Beside the appropriate forecasting method, error calculation is one of the critical constraints in accuracy out of all methods. This paper overview the available methods and the types of error being considered in forecasting techniques. Then the forecasting methods, namely Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) and Artificial Neural Network which are highly applied in forecasting modelling are compared over its error accuracy.  

Identifying Barriers to Integration of Technology into Traditional Approach of Teaching: A Case Study of Mathematics Teachers in Former Transkei in the Eastern Cape

10.31355/12 ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 063-071
Author(s):  
Agyei Fosu
Keyword(s):  
High School ◽  
Mathematics Teachers ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
High School Education ◽  
Eastern Cape ◽  
High School Mathematics ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Past ◽  
Integration Of Technology ◽  
Teaching Of Mathematics

NOTE: THIS ARTICLE WAS PUBLISHED WITH THE INFORMING SCIENCE INSTITUTE. Aim/Purpose................................................................................................................................................................................................. The main aim of the study is to identify some of the barriers to the integration of technology into the teaching of mathematics in high schools. Background................................................................................................................................................................................................. Writing on chalkboards as a method of transferring knowledge is a key feature of traditional approach to teaching may have been successful in the past, but the minds of the current generation vary from those of the previous generation. Today’s students are immersed in technology. They are much more up-to-date on the latest technology and gadgets. Technology has certainly changed how students access and integrate information, so it plausible that technology has also changed the way students thinks. Growing up with cutting-edge technologies has left them thinking differently than students of past generations. This call for new innovative approaches to teaching that will cater to the students of today. Of course it is not wise to discard the traditional way of teaching that the past teachers have painstakingly created because of its past and some current success. This is why it is recommended to use this approach as a base for the new ones. Thus, if there is a way to transfer the advantages of this approach of teaching to new innovative approach then teachers should do everything in their power to merge the past and the present into one innovative teaching approach. Methodology................................................................................................................................................................................................. Purposeful sampling was used to survey a total of 116 high school mathematics teachers in the former Transkei Homelands. But only 97 questionnaires were deemed usable because of the way they have answered the questions. Microsoft excel was used in the descriptive statistics Contribution................................................................................................................................................................................................. To identify some barriers that need to be addressed by stakeholders, policy makers in high school education so that high school mathematics teachers will be able to integrate technology into their classroom teaching to meet today students’ learning needs. Findings...................................................................................................................................................................................................... The results indicated that the participating teachers need to be trained and supported in the use of the new technologies applicable to teaching mathematics. Recommendations for Practitioners.......................................................................................................................................................... The Eastern Cape department of education needs to consider the lacked of technology training as a barrier to the integration of technology into the teaching of mathematics and take necessary steps to address it. Recommendation for Researchers........................................................................................................................................................... There is the need to explore in depth whether the factors of gender and age also act as barriers. Impact on Society....................................................................................................................................................................................... The research will assist stakeholders, policy makers of high school education to identify the needs of mathematics teachers. That is to say, the skill sets, experience and expertise, as well as teaching equipment and classroom design and environment required by mathematics teachers. Future Research........................................................................................................................................................................................... More work needs to be done to check whether gender, age of the teachers have some effects on their attitude towards technology integration as well as evaluate the role played by choice of teaching methodology and teaching objectives.

Economic complexity and embedding of regional economies’ structures

2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Mikhail Afanasiev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Potential Contribution ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Economic Complexity ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
Strong Sector

 The research focuses on the development of localized specialization and economic diversification theories. Our task is forecasting of the emergence of new strong sectors in the region. On the basis of probabilistic and statistical modeling the model which allows estimating the probability of appearing a new strong sector in the region taking into account characteristics of economic structure is constructed. The possibility of building such a model is based on the assumption that the emergence and development of sectors is largely determined by the evolution of past economic activity. The model uses the indicators of embedding structures of the strong sectors in the regional economies is introduced by the authors. These indicators are based on the probabilistic interpretation and properties of the elements of the matrix, by which economic complexity is estimated following the traditional approach. The probability of originating a strong sector in the structure for each region is estimated. Based on sorting the sectors according to the value of these probabilities and assessments of their potential contribution to socio-economic development expert assessment of the feasibility of developing a new strong sector in the region can be made. The results show that sectors’ introduction and generation in the regional economy is largely due to the evolution of the past economic activity.    

scholarly journals Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (9) ◽  
pp. 4841-4859 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean W. D. Turner ◽  
James C. Bennett ◽  
David E. Robertson ◽  
Stefano Galelli
Keyword(s):  
System Performance ◽  
Research Effort ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Performance Improvements ◽  
Sensitivity Assessment ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow

Abstract. Considerable research effort has recently been directed at improving and operationalising ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Whilst this creates new opportunities for improving the performance of water resources systems, there may also be associated risks. Here, we explore these potential risks by examining the sensitivity of forecast value (improvement in system performance brought about by adopting forecasts) to changes in the forecast skill for a range of hypothetical reservoir designs with contrasting operating objectives. Forecast-informed operations are simulated using rolling horizon, adaptive control and then benchmarked against optimised control rules to assess performance improvements. Results show that there exists a strong relationship between forecast skill and value for systems operated to maintain a target water level. But this relationship breaks down when the reservoir is operated to satisfy a target demand for water; good forecast accuracy does not necessarily translate into performance improvement. We show that the primary cause of this behaviour is the buffering role played by storage in water supply reservoirs, which renders the forecast superfluous for long periods of the operation. System performance depends primarily on forecast accuracy when critical decisions are made – namely during severe drought. As it is not possible to know in advance if a forecast will perform well at such moments, we advocate measuring the consistency of forecast performance, through bootstrap resampling, to indicate potential usefulness in storage operations. Our results highlight the need for sensitivity assessment in value-of-forecast studies involving reservoirs with supply objectives.

Recently-Developed Aluminium Solutions for Aerospace Applications

2006 ◽  
Vol 519-521 ◽  
pp. 1271-1278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Warner
Keyword(s):  
New Technologies ◽  
Damage Tolerance ◽  
Grain Structure ◽  
Space Applications ◽  
Metallic Structures ◽  
Performance Improvements ◽  
The Past ◽  
Aerospace Applications ◽  
Aerospace Alloys ◽  
Damage Tolerant

Two principal approaches are available to materials’ engineers to improve the overall cost-weight balance of metallic airframe structures: improving alloy performance and optimising materials’ utilisation. Although both approaches have been successful in the past, they are most effective when applied concomitantly. The Aluminium industry has a long record of improving aerospace alloys’ performance. Nevertheless, even in apparently well-explored alloy systems such as the 7xxx family, products with improved damage tolerance-strength balances have recently been developed, thanks to an improved understanding of the optimum Zn-Mg-Cu combinations for the required property balances but also to developments in casting capability. Novel dispersoids and dispersoid combinations have enabled further improvements of the performance of existing alloy families. For example, appropriate Sc and Zr additions have a significant impact on the grain structure of 2xxx alloys and thus on performance. Another high potential approach for alloy performance improvements is the optimisation of Al-Cu-Li-(Mg-Ag-Zn) alloys. These so-called “third generation Al-Li alloys” were principally developed for military and space applications; in order to meet the demands of future commercial airframes, more damage tolerant variants are being developed. AA2198 and AA2050 are used to illustrate the potential of these higher damage tolerance Al-Cu-Li alloys. However, materials performance improvements are only part of the potential developments of metallic solutions for airframes. Further gains of a similar magnitude in component weight and cost can be achieved by applying new technologies and new design solutions to metallic structures. The future of metallic airframes will depend on the concomitant application of both these approaches.

scholarly journals Consumer's inflation expectations in Brazil

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 509-529
Author(s):  
Fernando Ormonde Teixeira ◽  
Ingrid Christyne Luquett de Oliveira ◽  
Pedro Costa Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Major Elements ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Consumer Survey ◽  
Micro Data ◽  
The Past ◽  
Expectations Formation ◽  
The Media ◽  
Main Components ◽  
Media Data

Abstract This paper investigates what are the main components of consumer's inflation expectations. We combine the FGV's Consumer Survey with the indices of inflation (IPCA and government regulated prices), professional forecasts disclosed in the Focus report, and media data which we crawl from one of the biggest and most important Brazilian newspapers, Folha de São Paulo, to determine what factors are responsible for and improve consumer's forecast accuracy. We found gender, age and city of residence as major elements when analyzing micro-data. Aggregate data shows the past inflation as an important trigger in the formation of consumers' expectations and professional forecasts as negligible. Moreover, the media plays a significant role, accounting not only for the expectations' formation but for a better understanding of actual inflation as well.

scholarly journals The combination of the economic forecasts using expert information

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 4-14
Author(s):  
A. A. Surkov
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
External Information ◽  
Summary Table ◽  
Economic Forecasting ◽  
Expert Information ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Pairwise Preference ◽  
Combining Forecasts ◽  
Domestic Practice ◽  
Available Information

Purpose of the study. The aim of this work is to consider the possibility of using expert information when combining forecasts as an additional factor in improving the accuracy of economic forecasting. Using the methodology of combining forecasts is increasingly found in the domestic practice of economic forecasting. Most researchers agree that combining forecasts improves forecasting accuracy by using all available information about the process under study, which is included in individual forecasting methods.  Today, there are many methods for constructing weighting factors when combining forecasts, but all of them are primarily based on the use of only statistical information about the process under study. But economic forecasting cannot be linear in its dynamics, many external factors constantly affect the forecasted process, and some internal ones may not be affected by the methods used. In this case, it is necessary to attract expert information or external information about the forecast obtained in order to increase its accuracy and adjust the further development of the economic process. This is especially true today, during the period of digitalization of the economy and the increasing influence of social and political factors on the dynamics of economic phenomena.  Materials and methods. For this purpose, methods of constructing integral indicators based on expert information or directly using such information at the stage of constructing a joint forecast can be directly used to make adjustments to the resulting combined forecast. Some of these approaches are already used in foreign practice of economic forecasting, while in domestic practice they are still little known. One of such approaches may be the use of the pairwise preference method or the application of Fishburn formulas for ranking particular forecasting methods by accuracy. The approaches considered in this work can be used as tools for constructing weight coefficients or as a correction of the obtained forecasting results.  Results. As a result of this article, attempts have been made to propose possible methods for combining forecasts using expert information, a summary table has been compiled with an assessment of one or another method of combining forecasts, and conclusions are drawn on the appropriateness of their application in practice. Such a table will make it possible to better understand the direction of attracting expert information to combine forecasts and choose the most suitable approach for further use in practice.  Conclusion. Combining forecasts has long established itself as an effective method for increasing forecast accuracy. This technique cannot degrade the result, in most cases increasing accuracy. The use of expert information in combining forecasts is the next step in improving this technique and requires a separate further practical study of possible tools for attracting expert information to the pool.  

scholarly journals Using correlation matrices in predicting airline performance

2021 ◽  
pp. 15-18
Author(s):  
O. G. Feoktistova ◽  
◽  
D. Yu. Potapova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Air Transportation ◽  
Correlation Matrices ◽  
Effective Functioning ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Airline Performance

The article considers the issue of making forecasts of the main indicators of the activities of airlines for their effective functioning in the air transportation market. It describes the life cycle of airlines and provides a classification of the forecasts that are currently being made. The interrelation of correlations of the key parameters of the airline’s functioning is considered, the use of correlations in forecasting is shown, actual calculations are presented, and a significant increase in forecast accuracy when using this forecasting method is demonstrated.

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