Safety and Risk of Operating Facilities: Rapid Assessment Methodology

Two methods for methodology uses “risk indices” (dam condition index I), as well as “fuzzy logic methods” to combine the original quantitative and qualitative (expert) information on the operated dam condition. The approach applied is in accordance with the recommendations of IEC 31010: 2019. Risk Management — Risk Assessment Techniques. Deterministic assessments of the condition in the form of “risk indices” were also used as input data in assessing the probability of the failure and in developing a probabilistic risk assessment methodology. The original database, as well as the damage assessment scale, modified in the course of the research, summarize the experience of surveys and examination of safety declarations of more than 180 hydraulic works in Russia. A description is given of the methods of initial assessment and digitization (quantification) of the condition index I, as well as combining the initial quantitative and qualitative (expert) information about various damages. The practical feasibility and the possibility of categorizing (with fuzzy boundaries) conditions and levels of damage to hydraulic structures are shown. With regard to various conditions and levels of damage, proposals are made for practical actions to ensure the safety of dams in the process of monitoring, inspection, development of a reconstruction project and its expertise. As a result of the research, the dependence of the probability of the failure pfailure on the average value of the Iср index has been established and the graph “pfailure – Iср” is presented, which is well described by the exponential and is convenient for practical application. The value of I ср is determined according to the data of visual and instrumental control of the dam condition of the as well as according to expert estimates. The methodology for creation the indicated graph is presented. The creation of this graph became possible on the basis of: statistical processing, proof of the “normality” of the distribution of the I indices and the estimation (according to the distribution functions constructed for each level of damage) the probability of the failure pfailure, as well as during the survey and examination of the dam project. Proposals are formulated for the practical application of the proposed methods for assessing the risk of operating dams, and the near-term prospect of research in the field of risk assessment and ensuring dam safety is formulated.

Electronic patient medical records: Agility in the management of medical-expert information in the aeronautical health boards

The Electronic Patient Record (EPR) is already a reality in the practice of many offices, diagnostic centers and hospitals. The Federal Council of Medicine (FCM) regulated its use, through FCM Resolution n° 1,821/2007 In the Health Boards (HB) of the COMAER, agencies responsible for doing the medical-expert examinations of the military force, the paper record is still the rule. There is no automatic sharing of information between HB. In this context, it is perceived the need for the implementation of the unified EPR for the COMAER HB, because it speeds up the sharing of medical-expert information of the military and allows the military to carry out their health inspections in different locations, not interfering in the planning of missions so peculiar to the force, saving time and costs, speeding up the release of the results and control of inspections. The research thus consists of the qualitative approach, with exploratory objective and bibliographic procedure, carried out in the Scielo and Google Scholar databases, based on the discussion in ten articles, in addition to the FCM Resolutions. It was noted that the perspective that EPR has direct advantages for the Institution, however, requires an abrupt cultural change to the model that is made today, to provide a greater speed among the HB, even if in the transition phase, it is chosen to use in parallel in paper and Information and Communication Technologies. Therefore, the implementation of EPR in HB can provide both multidisciplinary teams and users of COMAER HB, a more efficient medical-expert assistance by promoting information sharing and agility in the performance of Health Inspections.

The influence of new information that contradicts common knowledge about earthquake preparedness in Israel: A mixed methods experiment study

Background A major earthquake in Israel is inevitable. Individual risk perceptions and preparedness can mitigate harm and save lives. The gap between the public’s concerns and those of experts is reflected in their differential perceptions regarding the components that influence the occurrence of an earthquake in Israel. Whereas the public believes that geographic location is the critical variable, the experts note additional variables that need to be considered. Common knowledge regarding the risks of earthquake occurrence in Israel is based on a distinction between high and low-risk areas, such that the closer a residential area is to the Great Rift Valley, the higher the risk that an earthquake will occur. Objectives To examine the variables affecting public preparedness in Israel (effective communication agent (communicator), high and low earthquake risk areas) and the degree to which experts’ knowledge contradicts respondents’ common knowledge. Methods The study used a mixed-methods approach combining qualitative and quantitative research. The first stage included in-depth interviews with earthquake experts (n = 19). The second stage consisted of an experiment conducted among a representative sample of the public (n = 834). Results Most people believe that geographical location constitutes the main risk factor for earthquakes in Israel. Yet experts claim that additional variables affect earthquake intensity and damage: building strength, earthquake magnitude, distance from earthquake epicenter, soil type, and interaction between these four. The study found that knowledge of expert information affects public willingness to prepare. The direction of this influence depends on participants’ risk perceptions regarding residential area and on degree of consistency with common knowledge. In low-risk areas, added knowledge increased willingness to prepare whereas in high-risk areas this knowledge decreased willingness. Conclusion To turn expert information into common knowledge and to increase earthquake preparedness, the authorities must educate the public to generate a new public preparedness norm.