Software Process Model using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

2011 ◽  
pp. 289-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Schulz ◽  
Lukasz Radlinski ◽  
Thomas Gorges ◽  
Wolfgang Rosenstiel
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Software Process ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Networks ◽  
Software Projects ◽  
Initial Development ◽  
Development Costs ◽  
Over Time

This chapter describes a methodology to support the management of large scale software projects in optimizing product correction effort versus initial development costs over time. The Software Process Model (SPM) represents the implementation of this approach on a level of detail explicitly developed to meet project manager’s demands. The underlying technique used in this approach is based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs). The use of Bayesian Networks (BNs) enables the representation of causal relationships among process and product key performance indicators elicited either by data or expert knowledge. DBNs provide an insight into various aspects of SPM over time to assess current as well as predicting future model states. The objective of this chapter is to describe the practical approach to establish SPM as state of the art decision support in an industrial environment.

scholarly journals Analyses of Land Cover Change Trajectories Leading to Tropical Forest Loss: Illustrated for the West Kutai and Mahakam Ulu Districts, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

Land ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carina van der Laan ◽  
Arif Budiman ◽  
Judith Verstegen ◽  
Stefan Dekker ◽  
Wiwin Effendy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Forest Loss ◽  
The West ◽  
East Kalimantan ◽  
Open Forest ◽  
Over Time

In Indonesia, land cover change for agriculture and mining is threatening tropical forests, biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, land cover change is highly dynamic and complex and varies over time and space. In this study, we combined Landsat-based land cover (change) mapping, pixel-to-pixel cross tabulations and expert knowledge to analyze land cover change and forest loss in the West Kutai and Mahakam Ulu districts in East Kalimantan from 1990–2009. We found that about one-third of the study area changed in 1990–2009 and that the different types of land cover changes in the study area increased and involved more diverse and characteristic trajectories in 2000–2009, compared to 1990–2000. Degradation to more open forest types was dominant, and forest was mostly lost due to trajectories that involved deforestation to grasslands and shrubs (~17%), and to a lesser extent due to trajectories from forest to mining and agriculture (11%). Trajectories from forest to small-scale mixed cropland and smallholder rubber occurred more frequently than trajectories to large-scale oil palm or pulpwood plantations; however, the latter increased over time. About 11% of total land cover change involved multiple-step trajectories and thus “intermediate” land cover types. The combined trajectory analysis in this paper thus contributes to a more comprehensive analysis of land cover change and the drivers of forest loss, which is essential to improve future land cover projections and to support spatial planning.

scholarly journals Indirect Causes in Dynamic Bayesian Networks Revisited

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
pp. 1-58
Author(s):  
Alexander Motzek ◽  
Ralf Möller
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Graphical Models ◽  
Probabilistic Graphical Models ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Networks ◽  
Coarse Grained ◽  
Mathematical Basis ◽  
Use Of Time ◽  
Modeling Uncertainties ◽  
Spurious Results ◽  
Over Time

Modeling causal dependencies often demands cycles at a coarse-grained temporal scale. If Bayesian networks are to be used for modeling uncertainties, cycles are eliminated with dynamic Bayesian networks, spreading indirect dependencies over time and enforcing an infinitesimal resolution of time. Without a ``causal design,'' i.e., without anticipating indirect influences appropriately in time, we argue that such networks return spurious results. By identifying activator random variables, we propose activator dynamic Bayesian networks (ADBNs) which are able to rapidly adapt to contexts under a causal use of time, anticipating indirect influences on a solid mathematical basis using familiar Bayesian network semantics. ADBNs are well-defined dynamic probabilistic graphical models allowing one to model cyclic dependencies from local and causal perspectives while preserving a classical, familiar calculus and classically known algorithms, without introducing any overhead in modeling or inference.

scholarly journals Non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian networks with edge-wise sequentially coupled parameters

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Shafiee Kamalabad ◽  
Marco Grzegorczyk
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Information Exchange ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Networks ◽  
Interaction Parameters ◽  
Supplementary Information ◽  
Learning Networks ◽  
New Model ◽  
Network Interaction ◽  
Multiple Changepoint Process ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Motivation Non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian networks (NH-DBNs) are a popular tool for learning networks with time-varying interaction parameters. A multiple changepoint process is used to divide the data into disjoint segments and the network interaction parameters are assumed to be segment-specific. The objective is to infer the network structure along with the segmentation and the segment-specific parameters from the data. The conventional (uncoupled) NH-DBNs do not allow for information exchange among segments, and the interaction parameters have to be learned separately for each segment. More advanced coupled NH-DBN models allow the interaction parameters to vary but enforce them to stay similar over time. As the enforced similarity of the network parameters can have counter-productive effects, we propose a new consensus NH-DBN model that combines features of the uncoupled and the coupled NH-DBN. The new model infers for each individual edge whether its interaction parameter stays similar over time (and should be coupled) or if it changes from segment to segment (and should stay uncoupled). Results Our new model yields higher network reconstruction accuracies than state-of-the-art models for synthetic and yeast network data. For gene expression data from A. thaliana our new model infers a plausible network topology and yields hypotheses about the light-dependencies of the gene interactions. Availability Data are available from earlier publications. Matlab code is available at Bioinformatics online. Supplementary information A supplementary paper is available at Bioinformatics online.

Identification of Risk Factors in Large Scale Software Projects

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Basit Shahzad
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Development Process ◽  
Software Process ◽  
Software Development Process ◽  
Software Management ◽  
Software Projects ◽  
Comprehensive Survey ◽  
Potential Losses ◽  
Software Risk

Ensuring that software process can take place without the software risks is a dream that we strive to achieve by putting in place the software management methodologies. The most important of its phases is the identification of verified risk factors that can be considered and focused to empower the software development process and decrease the potential losses and issues that cause these losses. This paper covers the identification of top rated risk factors by conducting a comprehensive survey and validates the results to identify the top ten software risk factors.

Transcending structure: Applying shared markup vocabularies with your friends and enemies

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Beck
Keyword(s):  
Best Practices ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Development Costs ◽  
Communities Of Interest ◽  
Document Structures ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Maintenance Mode

Markup makes it easier to share. We share documents with our peers, our partners, and even our competitors. Communities of interest form, they define document structures, test them in practice, and affirm them by adoption. Joining a community has obvious advantages: reduced development costs, ease of interchange, tried and tested tools, and an available pool of authors, editors, and developers already familiar with the vocabulary. Over time, the pace of vocabulary evolution slows naturally. The major structures are developed, applied, tested, and accepted. New structures are added more slowly, and more reluctantly. The community has transitioned into maintenance mode where large scale refactorings and backwards-incompatible changes are known to have burdonsome costs and “best practices” are known to make sharing easier. What can the “Markup Community in General” do to support these stricter best practices communities?

Findings for the Industrial Case Study

2010 ◽  
pp. 153-162
Author(s):  
Farley Simon Nobre ◽  
Andrew M. Tobias ◽  
David S. Walker
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Software Process ◽  
Management Control ◽  
Process Performance ◽  
Software Projects ◽  
Industrial Case Study ◽  
Organizational Cognition ◽  
Performance Indexes ◽  
Organization Process

Chapter XI presents results, analyses, and conclusions about the industrial case study. From a micro perspective, it presents findings of the management control system of the organization process performance. In particular, it gives special attention to the analysis of data of a set of five successive large-scale software projects which were engineered and managed in the Telecommunications Management Networks (TMN) Section of NEC of Brazil (NOB). These data include project cost (C) and project requirements completeness (R) and they represent the state variables of the software process of the TMN Section. C and R are fed into the cognitive machine which performs the computation of performance indexes of the software process of the TMN Section. The performance indexes include Customer Satisfaction (CS) and Project Management Quality (PMQ). The process of mapping the inputs (C and R) to the outputs (CS and PMQ) was illustrated earlier in Figure 10.2. In this perspective, organization process performance is synonymous with the TMN Section’s process performance. From a macro perspective, this chapter presents analysis and conclusions about the main correlations between measures of organization process improvement and organizational cognition. Findings indicate that improvements in the level of organization process performance are associated with improvements in the level of organization process maturity. Proceeding further, we associate these results with improvements in the degree of organizational cognition. Chapter XI also outlines the main contributions and limitations found with the implementation of The Capability Maturity Model in the organization of study.

GENERATION OF OBJECT-ORIENTED SOFTWARE PROCESS USING MILESTONES

1999 ◽  
Vol 09 (04) ◽  
pp. 445-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
NORIKO HANAKAWA ◽  
HAJIMU IIDA ◽  
KEN-ICHI MATSUMOTO ◽  
KOJI TORII
Keyword(s):  
Process Model ◽  
Software Process ◽  
Object Oriented ◽  
Software Projects ◽  
Development Method ◽  
Road Map ◽  
Development Phases ◽  
And Control ◽  
Development Methods ◽  
New Framework

One of the major problems in object-oriented software projects is the lack of management's ability to comprehend and control the development progress of a project. This is because traditional phases of software development are not appropriate for object-oriented development. The project manager's "road map" is likely to be different with different phases, different milestones, and different checkpoints. This paper proposes a new framework which gives us a guideline for generating software process with relevant milestones for object-oriented development methods. The framework provides algorithms for identifying development phases and baseline products based on relationships among activities and products of the development method. In addition, the framework defines a software process model to manage a development progress in which milestones are established at the end of each phase in order to check the baseline product and establish goals for the following phase. Results of the application of the proposed framework show that the framework can generate a software process customized for well-known object-oriented development methods in a systematic way.

RUP

2001 ◽  
pp. 61-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Hesse
Keyword(s):  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Software Process ◽  
Unified Modeling Language ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Use Case ◽  
Software Projects ◽  
Unified Modeling ◽  
Core Concepts ◽  
Unified Process

Recently, the Rational Unified Process (RUP) has been published as the second part of Rational’s Unified Method project. The RUP is advertised as an “iterative and incremental, use case-driven, architecture-centric” process model and aims to support system designers, builders and managers working with the Unified Modeling Language (UML) by a procedural guideline. In this chapter, a brief review and a critical analysis of the RUP is attempted. Its general aim and its contribution towards more harmonisation in the software process field are acknowledged. However, its ability to reduce the complexity of software development and to clarify its interlaced structure and terminology is doubted. Major problems may result from concepts not clearly specified like workflow or architecture. In particular, RUP core concepts like phase, iteration, workflow and milestone are debated. It is argued that RUP phases and milestones do not support the requirements of modern object-oriented (and, in particular, component-based) software projects. Iteration cycles should be based on software building blocks rather than on phases and activities. As one possible alternative to the RUP, a component-based (and truly architecture-centric) process model is sketched, and a multi-variant approach to software process modelling is recommended.

PLANNING SUPPORT TO SOFTWARE PROCESS EVOLUTION

2000 ◽  
Vol 10 (01) ◽  
pp. 31-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
REIDAR CONRADI ◽  
MINH NGOC NGUYEN ◽  
ALF INGE WANG ◽  
CHUNNIAN LIU
Keyword(s):  
Software Engineering ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Knowledge Engineering ◽  
Software Process ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Software Project ◽  
Ai Planning ◽  
Software Projects ◽  
Planning Support

The ability to handle changes is a characteristic feature of successful software projects. The problem addressed in this paper is what should be done in project planning and iterative replanning so that the project can react effectively to changes. Thus the work presents research results in software engineering, as well as transfer of methods in knowledge engineering to software engineering, applying the AI planning technique to software process modeling and software project management. Our method is based on inter-project experience and evolution patterns. We propose a new classification of software projects, identifying and characterizing ten software process evolution patterns and link them to different project profile. Based on the evolution patterns, we discuss the planning support for process evolution and propose several methods that are new or significantly extend existing work, e.g. cost estimation of process changes, evolution pattern analysis, and a coarse process model for the initial planning and the iterative replanning process. The preliminary results have shown that the study of evolution patterns, based on inter-project experience, can provide valuable guidance in software process understanding and improvement.

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