Demand-Driven Efforts to Stop Deforestation in Brazil's Soy Sector are Unlikely to be Offset by Cross-Border Leakage

Supply chain policies that leverage the upstream market power of trading companies and importing countries offer great promise to address forest clearing1,2 in regions of rapid commodity expansion but weak forest governance3,4. Yet leakage—when deforestation is not eliminated but instead pushed to other regions—is a potentially major but unquantified factor that could dilute the global effectiveness of regionally successful supply chain policies5,6. We find substantial domestic leakage rates (43-50%) induced by zero deforestation policy implementation in Brazil’s soy sector, but insignificant cross-border leakage (<3%) due to the interdependence of soy production in the U.S. and Brazil. Currently implemented zero-deforestation policies in the Brazilian soy sector offset 0.9% of global and 4% of Brazilian deforestation from 2011-2016. However, completely eliminating deforestation from the supply chains of all firms exporting soy to the EU or China over the same period could have reduced global deforestation by 2% and Brazilian deforestation by 9%. If major tropical commodity importers adopt policies that require traders to eliminate deforestation from their supply chains, as currently proposed in the EU, it could help bend the curve on global forest loss.

Deforestation scenarios show the importance of secondary forest for meeting Panama’s carbon goals

Context Tropical forest loss has a major impact on climate change. Secondary forest growth has potential to mitigate these impacts, but uncertainty regarding future land use, remote sensing limitations, and carbon model accuracy have inhibited understanding the range of potential future carbon dynamics. Objectives We evaluated the effects of four scenarios on carbon stocks and sequestration in a mixed-use landscape based on Recent Trends (RT), Accelerated Deforestation (AD), Grow Only (GO), and Grow Everything (GE) scenarios. Methods Working in central Panama, we coupled a 1-ha resolution LiDAR derived carbon map with a locally derived secondary forest carbon accumulation model. We used Dinamica EGO 4.0.5 to spatially simulate forest loss across the landscape based on recent deforestation rates. We used local studies of belowground, woody debris, and liana carbon to estimate ecosystem scale carbon fluxes. Results Accounting for 58.6 percent of the forest in 2020, secondary forests (< 50 years) accrue 88.9 percent of carbon in the GO scenario by 2050. RT and AD scenarios lost 36,707 and 177,035 ha of forest respectively by 2030, a carbon gain of 7.7 million Mg C (RT) and loss of 2.9 million Mg C (AD). Growing forest on all available land (GE) could achieve 56 percent of Panama’s land-based carbon sequestration goal by 2050. Conclusions Our estimates of potential carbon storage demonstrate the important contribution of secondary forests to land-based carbon sequestration in central Panama. Protecting these forests will contribute significantly to meeting Panama’s climate change mitigation goals and enhance water security.

The Judicial Fix for Forest Loss: The Godavarman Case and the Financialization of India’s Forests

In India, the setting up of large projects in forest areas can be undertaken only after government permission is obtained under the Forest (Conservation) Act (FCA) of 1980. Today, this approval process includes the enumeration and valuation of forest loss, and the financing of compensatory afforestation schemes to offset the loss. These procedures were designed through the orders and judgements of the Supreme Court of India in a set of cases that started in 1995 and continue to this day. These procedures are purportedly aimed to protect and restore forest ecologies in India. In this article we analyse the Supreme Court’s processes and orders between 1996 and 2006 which transformed the political ecology of forests in India. The judicial and expert discourses treated forest regulation and conservation as a techno-managerial exercise, separating it from social-ecological concerns such as historical dispossession of Adivasis and other forest-dependent people, and violent state suppression of diverse forms of forest management. The judicial interventions are instructive to understand the policy processes of green neoliberalism and the implications of the financialization of forests on environmental governance in India.

Continuous Detection of Forest Loss in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia Using Sentinel-1 Data

In this study, we demonstrate the ability of a new operational system to detect forest loss at a large scale accurately and in a timely manner. We produced forest loss maps every week over Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos (>750,000 km2 in total) using Sentinel-1 data. To do so, we used the forest loss detection method based on shadow detection. The main advantage of this method is the ability to avoid false alarms, which is relevant in Southeast Asia where the areas of forest disturbance may be very small and scattered and detection is used for alert purposes. The estimated user accuracy of the forest loss map was 0.95 for forest disturbances and 0.99 for intact forest, and the estimated producer’s accuracy was 0.90 for forest disturbances and 0.99 for intact forest, with a minimum mapping unit of 0.1 ha. This represents an important step forward compared to the values achieved by previous studies. We also found that approximately half of forest disturbances in Cambodia from 2018 to 2020 occurred in protected areas, which emphasizes the lack of efficiency in the protection and conservation of natural resources in protected areas. On an annual basis, the forest loss areas detected using our method are found to be similar to the estimations from Global Forest Watch. These results highlight the fact that this method provides not only quick alerts but also reliable detections that can be used to calculate weekly, monthly, or annual forest loss statistics at a national scale.