General George S. Patton and Our Climate Crisis

2021 ◽  
pp. 155-184
Author(s):  
John Thomas Riley
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Effective Action ◽  
Technology Innovation ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Fiction Writers ◽  
History Of ◽  
Climate Crisis

The story of General Patton at the Battle of the Bulge is an excellent example of a story with a message that can be applied to our climate crisis. Our climate crisis is the defining problem for human society in the 21st century. Although the current situation is chaotic, as in this story, several positive paths are now clear enough to allow useful plans for a worldwide effort. One alternative to fear is to build a vision of a viable future through stories. Stories have a long history of being a common tool for building unified societal efforts. The stories that society now needs require both a science-based background and believable characters in effective action on our climate crisis. The elements used to build stories, first the background and then the plot, are called beats. The background beats developed here include sea level rise, no-till farming, population peaking, and technology innovation for the period 2020 to 2100. These beats should enable fiction writers to place stories and characters in a world of action on our climate crisis.

Symbioses as an Alternative to Master/Slave for Artificial Intelligence

2021 ◽  
pp. 127-150
Author(s):  
John Thomas Riley
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Current Approach ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Climate Crisis

Human society is facing enormous problems this century as result of our climate crisis. These problems include sea level rise and the loss of farming capability. Society will need all the new tools it can develop to address these problems. Artificial intelligence with deep learning is one of these powerful tools, and it is new. Exactly how it will be used has not been determined. The current approach to the human/AI interface is referred to as master/slave. The human simply tells the AI what to do. This arrangement has many problems, and replacing it has been suggested. One possible new arrangement is a human/AI symbiosis. This would require a long-term relationship between a specific human and a specific AI. A novel, Born to Storms, exploring this arrangement is discussed at length.

Glacial Contributions to 21st Century Sea Level Rise

Eos ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kate Wheeling
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Mass Change ◽  
Sources Of Uncertainty

Researchers identify the main sources of uncertainty in projections of global glacier mass change, which is expected to add about 8–16 centimeters to sea level, through this century.

Climate Change: What’s the Big Deal?

2019 ◽  
pp. 7-22
Author(s):  
Gilbert E. Metcalf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Core Samples ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Climate Damages

Droughts, floods, soaring temperatures, sea-level rise, and melting ice are just some of the damages brought about by climate change. Chapter 1 details the cost of our failure to cut our emissions, from crop-destroying droughts to devastating floods. It also documents the inexorable build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere as demonstrated by the Keeling curve and observations from Antarctic ice core samples. The chapter then provides a brief history of the science linking the build-up of atmospheric greenhouse gases and climate damages.

scholarly journals Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea

2018 ◽  
Vol 97 (3) ◽  
pp. 79-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bert L.A. Vermeersen ◽  
Aimée B.A. Slangen ◽  
Theo Gerkema ◽  
Fedor Baart ◽  
Kim M. Cohen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Wadden Sea ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Level Change

AbstractRising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region.Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl.We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5.For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018–30 (uncertainties representing 5–95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma−1for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma−1for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018–50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma−1in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018–2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990–2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma−1for the year 2100.We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.

Using subsidence scenarios to assess flood risk to delta cities under future sea level rise.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Ground Water ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Policy Intervention ◽  
Local Policy ◽  
Vertical Land Motion ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Climate Crisis

<p>City level coastal subsidence can be caused by a number of factors, both natural (e.g. compaction) and anthropogenic (e.g. ground water extraction). Past observations in cities indicates that the rate of subsidence can be altered through policy intervention (e.g. Tokyo's ban on ground water pumping in 1970's). Given vertical land motion is a key component in local sea level projections where subsidence amplifies the onset of future damages, we test the extent to which intervention could reduce risk with a simple city level coastal damage model. We adjust water levels to embed different time dependent subsidence scenarios over the 21st century. We contend that local policy intervention to slow anthropogenic subsidence where possible will slow the onset of damaging sea level rise thus reducing potential coastal damages, and reduce the required increases in future flood protection heights. Performed in tandem with global mitigation efforts, cities currently under major threat may yet survive the climate crisis.</p>

Coastal flooding in the Balearic Islands during the 21st century caused by sea level rise and extreme events

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pau Luque Lozano ◽  
Lluís Gómez-Pujol ◽  
Marta Marcos ◽  
Alejandro Orfila
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Balearic Islands ◽  
Mean Sea Level

<p>Sea-level rise induces a permanent loss of land with widespread ecological and economic impacts, most evident in urban and densely populated areas. The eventual coastline retreat combined with the action of waves and storm surges will end in more severe damages over coastal areas. These effects are expected to be particularly significant over islands, where coastal zones represent a relatively larger area vulnerable to marine hazards.</p><p>Managing coastal flood risk at regional scales requires a prioritization of resources and socioeconomic activities along the coast. Stakeholders, such as regional authorities, coastal managers and private companies, need tools that help to address the evaluation of coastal risks and criteria to support decision-makers to clarify priorities and critical sites. For this reason, the regional Government of the Balearic Islands (Spain) in association with the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Environment has launched the Plan for Climate Change Coastal Adaptation. This framework integrates two levels of analysis. The first one relates with the identification of critical areas affected by coastal flooding and erosion under mean sea-level rise scenarios and the quantification of the extent of flooding, including marine extreme events. The second level assesses the impacts on infrastructures and assets from a socioeconomic perspective due to these hazards.</p><p>In this context, this paper quantifies the effects of sea-level rise and marine extreme events caused by storm surges and waves along the coasts of the Balearic Islands (Western Mediterranean Sea) in terms of coastal flooding and potential erosion. Given the regional scale (~1500 km) of this study, the presented methodology adopts a compromise between accuracy, physical representativity and computational costs. We map the projected flooded coastal areas under two mean sea-level rise climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. To do so, we apply a corrected bathtub algorithm. Additionally, we compute the impact of extreme storm surges and waves using two 35-year hindcasts consistently forced by mean sea level pressure and surface winds from ERA-Interim reanalysis. Waves have been further propagated towards the nearshore to compute wave setup with higher accuracy. The 100-year return levels of joint storm surges and waves are used to map the spatial extent of flooding in more than 200 sandy beaches around the Balearic Islands by mid and late 21st century, using the hydrodynamical LISFLOOD-FP model and a high resolution (2 m) Digital Elevation Model.</p>

Greenland’s contribution to global sea-level rise by the end of the 21st century

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 1427-1442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rune G. Graversen ◽  
Sybren Drijfhout ◽  
Wilco Hazeleger ◽  
Roderik van de Wal ◽  
Richard Bintanja ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Global Sea Level

Holocene sea-level history of the Canadian Beaufort shelf

1993 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip R. Hill ◽  
Arnaud Héquette ◽  
Marie-Hélène Ruz
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Zone ◽  
Marine Sediments ◽  
Tidal Marsh ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Single Piece ◽  
History Of ◽  
Holocene Sea Level

New radiocarbon ages pertaining to the Holocene sea-level history of the Canadian Beaufort shelf are presented. The ages were obtained on samples of freshwater and tidal-marsh peat beds from offshore boreholes and shallow cores in the coastal zone and on molluscs and a single piece of wood deposited in foraminifera-bearing marine sediments. Although none of the samples record directly the position of relative sea level, the suite of ages constrains the regional curve sufficiently to suggest a faster rate of mid Holocene sea level rise (7–14 mm/a) than previously thought. The rate of relative rise slowed markedly in the last 3000 years, approaching the present at a maximum probable rate of 2.5 mm/a.

scholarly journals Efficacy of geoengineering to limit 21st century sea-level rise

2010 ◽  
Vol 107 (36) ◽  
pp. 15699-15703 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Moore ◽  
S. Jevrejeva ◽  
A. Grinsted
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century

scholarly journals How to interpret expert judgment assessments of 21st century sea-level rise

2015 ◽  
Vol 130 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hylke de Vries ◽  
Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Expert Judgment
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