The Determinants of Health Expenditures in Tunisia

This article examines the determinants of health expenditures in Tunisia during the period 1961-2008, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach by Pesaran et al. (2001). The results of the bounds test show that there is a stable long-run relationship between per capita health expenditure, GDP, population ageing, medical density and environmental quality. In fact, on the one hand there are the short-run and long-run results which reveal that health care is a necessity, not a luxury good. On the other hand, results of the causality test show that there is a bidirectional causal flow from health expenditures to income, both in the short and in the long run.

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SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

JURNAL DINAMIKA EKONOMI PEMBANGUNAN ◽

10.14710/jdep.2.1.15-29 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 15

Author(s):

Ahmadi Murjani

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Poverty Alleviation ◽

Macroeconomic Variables ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Ardl Approach ◽

Short Run ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact

Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly.

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The Effect of Higher Education on Growth: A Cointegration Analysis

International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2013 ◽

10.36880/c04.00797 ◽

2013 ◽

Author(s):

Murat Mustafa Kutlutürk ◽

Hakan Kasım Akmaz ◽

Ahmet Çetin

Keyword(s):

Higher Education ◽

Granger Causality ◽

Cointegration Analysis ◽

Annual Data ◽

Causality Test ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

The Relationship

In this study the relationship between higher education and economic growth was investigated using annual data between 1988 and 2012 for Turkey. To see short and long run effects of higher education on growth the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) testing approach was used. In this investigation ratio of higher education graduates in employment was used as an explanatory variable. Zivot and Andrews test was implemented for the variables. The long and short run effects of higher education on growth was found significant. Granger causality test was implemented and one way Granger causality from higher education to growth was determined.

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Modelling the Temporal Effect of Terrorism on Tourism in Kenya

International Journal of Economics and Finance ◽

10.5539/ijef.v8n12p10 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (12) ◽

pp. 10 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Brian K. Masinde ◽

Steven Buigut ◽

Joseph K. Mung'atu

Keyword(s):

Testing Procedure ◽

Tourism Industry ◽

Bounds Testing ◽

Causality Test ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Long Run Equilibrium

<p>Terrorist attacks have escalated over the recent years in Kenya, with adverse effects on the tourism industry. This study aims to establish if a long-run equilibrium exists between terrorism and tourism in Kenya between the years 1994 and 2014. To reinforce the robustness of the results, both Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) techniques are used to investigate the problem. A Granger causality test is also carried out to ascertain the direction of the relationship if one exists. The evidence from ARDL and the VECM testing procedure suggest that there is no long-run equilibrium between terrorism and tourism in Kenya. Terrorism does not Granger cause tourism and vice versa. However, short-run effect indicates that terrorism negatively and significantly affects tourism.</p>

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A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Adjustment on Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan

SAGE Open ◽

10.1177/21582440211027167 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 215824402110271

Author(s):

Ibrar Hussain ◽

Jawad Hussain ◽

Arshad Ali ◽

Shabir Ahmad

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Causality Test ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Fiscal Adjustment ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Empirical Calibration ◽

Short Run ◽

S Model ◽

The Impact

This study claims to be the first in assessing the short-run and long-run impacts of both the size and composition of fiscal adjustment on the growth in Pakistan. Empirical calibration has been made on Mankiw et al.’s model, while the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques of Pesaran et al. have been employed to carry out the estimation. To cure the problem of degenerate cases, the ARDL techniques have been augmented with the model of Sam et al. The analysis supports the hypothesis of “expansionary fiscal contraction” in the long run. The analysis reveals that the spending-based adjustment enhances the economic growth, whereas the tax-based adjustment would reduce the growth in the long run in the case of Pakistan. The Granger causality test indicates that the fiscal adjustments have been weakly exogenous, thereby allowing feedback effect from the economic growth toward the fiscal adjustment. Thus, the objective of sustained economic growth can be achieved through the spending-based consolidation measures.

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Performance of Odisha State Co-operative Bank: An ARDL Approach

Arthaniti-Journal of Economic Theory and Practice ◽

10.1177/0976747920941769 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 097674792094176

Author(s):

Ranjan Kumar Nayak

Keyword(s):

Correction Term ◽

Share Capital ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Proactive Management ◽

Long Run ◽

Ardl Approach ◽

Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽

Short Run ◽

Adf Test

This article tries to analyse the financial performance of Odisha State Co-operative Bank (OSCB) for the period of 1949–1950 to 2014–2015. The methodology employed for the empirical analysis on this study involves autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test and Phillips–Perron (PP). Statistical significant of the coefficient of the lagged error-correction term shows about 44 per cent correction in short-run dynamics to the long-run equilibrium. Using the ARDL approach, the study finds that owned fund, borrowing, advance and working capital, share capital and reserve are statistically significant in the short run; and deposits, share capital and reserve are statistically significant in the long run. The empirical results suggest that deposits and advances impact the profits of OSCB positively while cost of management, capital and reserves lead to lower profits. Hence, the study proposes the OSCB to follow a proactive management of capital with higher deposit generation and larger advances strategy to become a strong bank and grow steadily.

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Dividend policy-performance nexus: PMG-ARDL approach

Future Business Journal ◽

10.1186/s43093-021-00066-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Olayinka Olufisayo Akinlo ◽

John Ayobamibo Olayiwola

Keyword(s):

Dividend Policy ◽

Financial Statements ◽

Payout Policy ◽

Policy Performance ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Pooled Mean Group ◽

Long Run ◽

Ardl Approach ◽

Short Run

AbstractThis paper examines the long run and short run link between dividend payout policy and corporate performance of quoted companies in Nigeria over the period 2001–2018. The study employs data of 80 listed companies collected from the audited financial statements of the companies and the publication of Central Bank of Nigeria. Using Pooled Mean Group-Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach, the result shows that dividend policy negatively and statistically influence performance in the short run, while in the long run the effect is positive and significant.

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The impact of minimum wage on unemployment, prices, and growth: A multivariate analysis for Turkey

Economic Annals ◽

10.2298/eka1921065k ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 64 (221) ◽

pp. 65-83

Author(s):

Biçerli Kemal ◽

Merve Kocaman

Keyword(s):

Error Correction ◽

Minimum Wage ◽

Causality Test ◽

Producer Price ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Turkish Economy ◽

Short Run ◽

The Impact

The aim of this study is to research the impact of minimum wage on unemployment, prices, and growth for the Turkish economy. The data used is monthly and covers the period from January 2005 to March 2017. The producer price index represents prices and the industrial production index represents growth. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used to see the effect of the minimum wage on these variables. An error-correction based Granger causality test is then conducted to see short-run and long-run causalities. The bounds test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between variables. The obtained ARDL results also show that while the minimum wage has a statistically significant effect on unemployment and prices, it does not have a statistically significant effect on production. While there is short-run causality from minimum wage to prices only, the obtained significant error correction terms indicate long-run causality for all of the variables. Consequently, the minimum wage plays a significant role in increasing prices and the number of unemployed people in Turkey.

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Determinantes da confiança do consumidor e dinâmica da política monetária no Brasil

Brazilian Keynesian Review ◽

10.33834/bkr.v5i1.165 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 18

Author(s):

Rafaela Maiara Caetano ◽

Cleomar Gomes Da Silva

Keyword(s):

The Other ◽

Consumer Confidence ◽

Bounds Testing ◽

Monthly Data ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Ardl Approach ◽

Short Run ◽

Econometric Methodology

<p>The aim of this article is to investigate the determinants of consumer confidence in Brazil and possible impacts on monetary policy actions. The econometric methodology applied is based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Models, particularly the Bounds Testing (ARDL) Approach to Cointegration. For monthly data between January 2003 and December 2016, the empirical results suggest that there is a long run relationship between consumer confidence and the other variables analyzed. As for short-run dynamics, the error correction mechanism varies between 1.9% and 8.7%, depending on the estimated model. This suggests that economic variables influence consumer confidence, and when there is a break in confidence, its recovery is very slow.</p>

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The effect of worker remittances on economic growth: An ARDL approach

Engineering Economics ◽

10.5755/j01.ee.30.4.21830 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 30 (4) ◽

pp. 434-441 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Muhammad Kamran Khan ◽

Jian-Zhou Teng ◽

Muhammad Imran Khan

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Direct Investment ◽

Domestic Saving ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Ardl Approach ◽

Financial Flow ◽

Short Run

Worker remittances are the main source of financial flow to any economy. This study intended to scrutinize the effect of remittance inflow on Pakistan’s economy over the period 1976- 2016 by employing autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique; because this method has been recently developed and has different advantages as compared to time series methods. ARDL method was applied to scrutinize the long run and the short run effect of worker remittances on Pakistan’s economy. This study concluded that Pakistan’s economy is positively affected by remittance inflow, foreign direct investment and the gross domestic saving in the long run, while Pakistan’s economy negatively affected by inflation and consumption in the long run. Remittances received from immigrant support economic growth in Pakistan because remittances inflow is mostly utilized for investment purpose. To further improve the economic development of Pakistan’s economy, it is suggested that policy maker in Pakistan encourage and motivate migrants to send remittances through proper channels to Pakistan, so that these inflows of remittances be used in such profitable investments that help to improve economic growth.

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