scholarly journals The impact of minimum wage on unemployment, prices, and growth: A multivariate analysis for Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (221) ◽  
pp. 65-83
Author(s):  
Biçerli Kemal ◽  
Merve Kocaman
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to research the impact of minimum wage on unemployment, prices, and growth for the Turkish economy. The data used is monthly and covers the period from January 2005 to March 2017. The producer price index represents prices and the industrial production index represents growth. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used to see the effect of the minimum wage on these variables. An error-correction based Granger causality test is then conducted to see short-run and long-run causalities. The bounds test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between variables. The obtained ARDL results also show that while the minimum wage has a statistically significant effect on unemployment and prices, it does not have a statistically significant effect on production. While there is short-run causality from minimum wage to prices only, the obtained significant error correction terms indicate long-run causality for all of the variables. Consequently, the minimum wage plays a significant role in increasing prices and the number of unemployed people in Turkey.

scholarly journals A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Adjustment on Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 215824402110271
Author(s):  
Ibrar Hussain ◽  
Jawad Hussain ◽  
Arshad Ali ◽  
Shabir Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Empirical Calibration ◽  
Short Run ◽  
S Model ◽  
The Impact

This study claims to be the first in assessing the short-run and long-run impacts of both the size and composition of fiscal adjustment on the growth in Pakistan. Empirical calibration has been made on Mankiw et al.’s model, while the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques of Pesaran et al. have been employed to carry out the estimation. To cure the problem of degenerate cases, the ARDL techniques have been augmented with the model of Sam et al. The analysis supports the hypothesis of “expansionary fiscal contraction” in the long run. The analysis reveals that the spending-based adjustment enhances the economic growth, whereas the tax-based adjustment would reduce the growth in the long run in the case of Pakistan. The Granger causality test indicates that the fiscal adjustments have been weakly exogenous, thereby allowing feedback effect from the economic growth toward the fiscal adjustment. Thus, the objective of sustained economic growth can be achieved through the spending-based consolidation measures.

scholarly journals Price Transmission and Factors Influencing the Price of Onions in Tanzania

2020 ◽  
pp. 67-76
Author(s):  
Yohana James Mgale
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Adjustment Cost ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This article analyzes the transmission of prices between marketing agents and the factors affecting onion prices at the consumer level. The Error Correction Model-Engle Granger (ECM-EG) was used to test the price transmission by including the impact of the rise and fall of producer, wholesale and retail prices in past periods. The Error Correction Model (ECM) was applied to the factors affecting onion prices. The test results showed that price transmission was asymmetrical in the short and long-run. With regard to factors, the results show that consumer price in the short-run was influenced by wholesale prices, producer prices and the price of fuel while in the long-run it was influenced by wholesale prices, producer price, price of fuel and consumer prices in the previous period (t-1). These results suggest the existence of a short-term adjustment cost and a long-term market power which distorts price transmission.

SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ahmadi Murjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

 Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly. 

scholarly journals The Effect of Higher Education on Growth: A Cointegration Analysis

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Mustafa Kutlutürk ◽  
Hakan Kasım Akmaz ◽  
Ahmet Çetin
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

In this study the relationship between higher education and economic growth was investigated using annual data between 1988 and 2012 for Turkey. To see short and long run effects of higher education on growth the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) testing approach was used. In this investigation ratio of higher education graduates in employment was used as an explanatory variable. Zivot and Andrews test was implemented for the variables. The long and short run effects of higher education on growth was found significant. Granger causality test was implemented and one way Granger causality from higher education to growth was determined.

scholarly journals Zakat and SDGs: Impact Zakat on Human Development in the Five States of Malaysia

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eko Suprayitno ◽  
Mohamed Aslam ◽  
Azhar Harun
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Development Program ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Development Education ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Zakat is intended to stimulate economic development, education, social, human resources empowerment, religion health, and insurance programs. The seven programs above are implemented by the Malaysian government to improve economic growth. The aim of the study is to examine the impact zakat on human development program in Malaysia using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach. The analysis was carried out for the period from 1980–2009. The finding of the research reveals that zakat has a positive and significant influence on human development in five state in the short and long run. Zakat in Malaysia can be used as tool of fiscal policy that is decided in the states of Malaysia to stimulate human development and economic growth in the long run. Keyword: Zakat, Human Development, Granger causality test

The Determinants of Health Expenditures in Tunisia

2018 ◽  
pp. 253-267
Author(s):  
Sami Chaabouni ◽  
Chokri Abednnadher
Keyword(s):  
Health Expenditures ◽  
Determinants Of Health ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Capita Health Expenditure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The One

This article examines the determinants of health expenditures in Tunisia during the period 1961-2008, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach by Pesaran et al. (2001). The results of the bounds test show that there is a stable long-run relationship between per capita health expenditure, GDP, population ageing, medical density and environmental quality. In fact, on the one hand there are the short-run and long-run results which reveal that health care is a necessity, not a luxury good. On the other hand, results of the causality test show that there is a bidirectional causal flow from health expenditures to income, both in the short and in the long run.

scholarly journals Modelling the Temporal Effect of Terrorism on Tourism in Kenya

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian K. Masinde ◽  
Steven Buigut ◽  
Joseph K. Mung'atu
Keyword(s):  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

<p>Terrorist attacks have escalated over the recent years in Kenya, with adverse effects on the tourism industry. This study aims to establish if a long-run equilibrium exists between terrorism and tourism in Kenya between the years 1994 and 2014. To reinforce the robustness of the results, both Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) techniques are used to investigate the problem. A Granger causality test is also carried out to ascertain the direction of the relationship if one exists. The evidence from ARDL and the VECM testing procedure suggest that there is no long-run equilibrium between terrorism and tourism in Kenya. Terrorism does not Granger cause tourism and vice versa. However, short-run effect indicates that terrorism negatively and significantly affects tourism.</p>

scholarly journals The Nexus Among Economic Growth, Inflation and Unemployment in Bhutan

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 94-105
Author(s):  
Ugyen Tenzin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Employment Elasticity ◽  
The Impact

In order to understand the dynamics of unemployment in Bhutan at a macro-level, this study has explored the association among economic growth, inflation and unemployment from 1998 to 2016. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was applied to estimate the impact of economic growth and inflation on unemployment. The results of this empirical analysis suggest that economic growth had no impact on the reduction of unemployment rate in Bhutan both in the short and in the long run. In fact, as the economic growth increased, so did the unemployment rate. However, inflation had a negative association with unemployment rate in the short run and a positive association in the long run. In other words, an increase in the employment rate led to an increase in the inflation in the short run. Likewise, if inflation is not monitored or controlled, the uncertainty of inflation can lead to lower investment and lower economic growth, thereby causing unemployment to rise in the long run. This study, therefore, recommends policymakers to take into account the employment elasticity with respect to economic output and focus on sectors, which have more absorptive capacity in engaging the young labour market entrants. JEL: B22, C22, E24, E31

scholarly journals The validity of the Fisher effect for an inflation targeting country

2021 ◽  
Vol 72 (5) ◽  
pp. 697-717
Author(s):  
Sinem Pınar Gürel
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Fisher Effect ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Short Run

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between interest and inflation rates. In this regard, the validity of the Fisher Effect under an inflation targeting regime country is examined by considering the possibility of non-linearities. To this aim, the Fisher Effect is analysed by using various types of interest rates to identify the short-, mid- and long-term dynamics. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models were estimated for Turkish economy between 2006-2019 periods. The empirical findings of ARDL models reveal the validity of Fisher Effect both for short and long run. The results of NARDL models indicate a strong Fisher Effect in the long run, except for 5-year government bonds. For short-run, the Fisher Effect holds only when inflation rises and there is no significant result when inflation decreases.

Growth impact of CO2 emissions caused by tourist arrivals in Turkey

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vedat Yorucu
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Tourist ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Dynamic Relationships ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for Turkey by utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag approach to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationships of CO2 emissions between foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) and electricity consumption (ELC). The results reveal that foreign tourists and ELC are significant determinants of a long-run equilibrium relationship with CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production and CO2 emissions from transport for Turkey, respectively. The results of the conditional error correction models (CECM) confirm that there are long-run causal relationships from the growing number of foreign tourist arrivals and the increase of ELC toward the growth of CO2 emissions during 1960-2010. The results of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) error correction models for CO2 emissions also validate significant dynamic relationships between CO2 emissions, ELC and tourist arrivals in the short run. Design/methodology/approach – ARDL modeling and Bounds test approach were used in this study. Findings – Rapid tourism development in Turkey has triggered CO2 emissions. The growth of CO2 emissions in Turkey threatens sustainability. The hypothesis of “The growth of CO2 emissions in Turkey” is validated. Tourist arrivals, ELC and CO2 emissions are co-integrated. CECMs confirm the growth of CO2 emissions during 1960-2010. ARDL modeling shows significant relationships between CO2 emissions and other variables. Originality/value – Results of ARDL error correction models for CO2 emissions validate the hypothesis that there are significant dynamic relationships between CO2 emissions, ELC and tourist arrivals in Turkey for the short run.

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