Quantification, Optimization and Uncertainty Modeling in Information Security Risks

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 33-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjay Goel ◽  
Eitel J.M. Lauría
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Uncertainty Modeling ◽  
Quantitative Model ◽  
Government Agency ◽  
The Other ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Security Risks

In this paper, the authors present a quantitative model for estimating security risk exposure for a firm. The model includes a formulation for the optimization of controls as well as determining sensitivity of the exposure of assets to different threats. The model uses a series of matrices to organize the data as groups of assets, vulnerabilities, threats, and controls. The matrices are then linked such that data is aggregated in each matrix and cascaded across the other matrices. The computations are reversible and transparent allowing analysts to answer what-if questions on the data. The exposure formulation is based on the Annualized Loss Expectancy (ALE) model, and uncertainties in the data are captured via Monte Carlo simulation. A mock case study based on a government agency is used to illustrate this methodology.

THE HARDNESS SPECTRUM OF QUARK- AND GLUON-JETS PRODUCED BY DIFFERENT FLAVOR QUARKS

2008 ◽  
Vol 23 (26) ◽  
pp. 4337-4343 ◽  
Author(s):  
FENG-GE TIAN ◽  
GANG CHEN ◽  
HUI-LING WEI
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Transverse Momentum ◽  
The Other ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Gluon Jets ◽  
Quark Jets

The hardness properties of quark- and gluon-jets produced by different flavor quarks are compared in 3-jet events of e+e- collision generated with Monte Carlo Simulation Jetset 7.4 generator at [Formula: see text]. The 3-jet events are obtained using the Durham algorithm and the quark- and gluon-jets are identified by angular-method. The average values of transverse momentum 〈pt〉, multiplicity 〈N〉 and rapidity 〈y〉 versus hardness for quark- and gluon-jets of different flavors are compared. It turns out that the distributions of 〈pt〉, 〈N〉 and 〈y〉 versus hardness of quark-jets are different to their flavors, while those of the gluon-jets are insensitive to the flavors. On the other hand, the 〈pt〉 and 〈N〉 of quark- and gluon-jets are strong positive correlated with hardness, but the 〈y〉 of those are negatively correlated with hardness.

Risk assessment of construction projects using Monte Carlo simulation

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abroon Qazi ◽  
Mecit Can Emre Simsekler
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Project Risks ◽  
Low Probability

PurposeThis paper aims to develop a process for prioritizing project risks that integrates the decision-maker's risk attitude, uncertainty about risks both in terms of the associated probability and impact ratings, and correlations across risk assessments.Design/methodology/approachThis paper adopts a Monte Carlo Simulation-based approach to capture the uncertainty associated with project risks. Risks are prioritized based on their relative expected utility values. The proposed process is operationalized through a real application in the construction industry.FindingsThe proposed process helped in identifying low-probability, high-impact risks that were overlooked in the conventional risk matrix-based prioritization scheme. While considering the expected risk exposure of individual risks, none of the risks were located in the high-risk exposure zone; however, the proposed Monte Carlo Simulation-based approach revealed risks with a high probability of occurrence in the high-risk exposure zone. Using the expected utility-based approach alone in prioritizing risks may lead to ignoring few critical risks, which can only be captured through a rigorous simulation-based approach.Originality/valueMonte Carlo Simulation has been used to aggregate the risk matrix-based data and disaggregate and map the resulting risk profiles with underlying distributions. The proposed process supported risk prioritization based on the decision-maker's risk attitude and identified low-probability, high-impact risks and high-probability, high-impact risks.

Application of life cycle assessment and Monte Carlo simulation for enabling sustainable product design

2014 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 307-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sekar Vinodh ◽  
Gopinath Rathod
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Life Cycle Assessment ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Product Design ◽  
Sustainable Product Design ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustainable Product ◽  
Manufacturing Organization

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present an integrated technical and economic model to evaluate the reusability of products or components. Design/methodology/approach – Life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology is applied to obtain the product’s environmental performance. Monte Carlo simulation is utilized for enabling sustainable product design. Findings – The results show that the model is capable of assessing the potential reusability of used products, while the usage of simulation significantly increases the effectiveness of the model in addressing uncertainties. Research limitations/implications – The case study has been conducted in a single manufacturing organization. The implications derived from the study are found to be practical and useful to the organization. Practical implications – The paper reports a case study carried out for an Indian rotary switches manufacturing organization. Hence, the model is practically feasible. Originality/value – The article presents a study that investigates LCA and simulation as enablers of sustainable product design. Hence, the contributions of this article are original and valuable.

Uncertainty Analysis and Monitoring of Earth Dam

2014 ◽  
Vol 580-583 ◽  
pp. 954-957
Author(s):  
Ling Qiang Yang ◽  
Rui Gao ◽  
Yan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Finite Difference Methods ◽  
Earth Dam ◽  
Earth Dams ◽  
Program Code ◽  
Physical Behavior ◽  
Difference Methods

Monte Carlo simulation provides a probabilistic method to evaluate the physical behavior of earth dam. Therefore, the behavior could be got in a more realistic manner. Based on the theory, an innovative software program code is developed by combining the Monte Carlo and finite difference methods to predict the performance of earth dams after impounding. In order to assess the efficiency of the method, the case study of earth dam, located at Southeast of China, has been studied in detail. The performance of this dam is predicted and compared with the field monitoring by using the monitoring data. The results shows the robustness of the proposed method.

Monte Carlo simulation of proton therapy using bio-nanomaterials

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 290-295
Author(s):  
Chafika Belamri ◽  
Anis Samy Amine Dib ◽  
Ahmed H. Belbachir
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Gold Nanoparticles ◽  
Silver Nanoparticles ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Cancer Therapy ◽  
Proton Therapy ◽  
Platinum Nanoparticles ◽  
The Other ◽  
Other Hand

AbstractIntroductionIn recent years, there has been a spectacular development in nanomedicine field with new nanoparticles for diagnosis and cancer therapy. Although most researchers have been always interested in gold nanoparticles (GNPs)Materials and methodsIn the present work we present a comparison between the use of bio-nanomaterials in proton therapy.ConclusionConsequently, our results show that platinum nanoparticles (PtNPs) present an interesting advantages comparing with GNPs and silver nanoparticles. On the other hand, the use of PtNPs facilitates in a considerable way the proton therapy.

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