Estimation of Peak Ground Acceleration and Its Uncertainty for Northern Indian Region

Author(s):  
Girish Chandra Joshi ◽  
Mukat Lal Sharma

In the present study the authors evaluate uncertainties in the seismic hazard assessment for the Northern Indian region, based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). The newly compiled earthquake data has been treated for the quality, consistency, and homogeneity in a systematic manner to find out the uncertainties in every step of calculations. Based on the geological and tectonic setup, seismicity and other geophysical anomalies, a seismotectonic model of the region has been developed. The seismic hazard parameters are calculated based on giving proper weight to specific region. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) is estimated for various return periods for the Northern Indian region using a logic tree approach. The variation at the input level in terms of the source models and different Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) is used. To examine into the effect of source modelling and GMPEs, the Coefficient of Variation (COV) maps have been generated. To encompass the region and for better resolution, the peak ground acceleration (PGA) is estimated at 15 minute intervals. The COV values due to all branch points in the logic tree decrease with distance from the source and conspicuous increase toward fault boundaries are observed.

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenming Wang ◽  
David T. Butler ◽  
Edward W. Woolery ◽  
Lanmin Wang

A scenario seismic hazard analysis was performed for the city of Tianshui. The scenario hazard analysis utilized the best available geologic and seismological information as well as composite source model (i.e., ground motion simulation) to derive ground motion hazards in terms of acceleration time histories, peak values (e.g., peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity), and response spectra. This study confirms that Tianshui is facing significant seismic hazard, and certain mitigation measures, such as better seismic design for buildings and other structures, should be developed and implemented. This study shows that PGA of 0.3 g (equivalent to Chinese intensity VIII) should be considered for seismic design of general building and PGA of 0.4 g (equivalent to Chinese intensity IX) for seismic design of critical facility in Tianshui.


1999 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Tavakoli ◽  
M. Ghafory-Ashtiany

The development of the new seismic hazard map of Iran is based on probabilistic seismic hazard computation using the historical earthquakes data, geology, tectonics, fault activity and seismic source models in Iran. These maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Iran in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines, and seismic hazard zoning, by using current probabilistic procedures. They display the probabilistic estimates of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for the return periods of 75 and 475 years. The maps have been divided into intervals of 0.25 degrees in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions to calculate the peak ground acceleration values at each grid point and draw the seismic hazard curves. The results presented in this study will provide the basis for the preparation of seismic risk maps, the estimation of earthquake insurance premiums, and the preliminary site evaluation of critical facilities.


2018 ◽  
Vol 195 ◽  
pp. 03019
Author(s):  
Rian Mahendra Taruna ◽  
Vrieslend Haris Banyunegoro ◽  
Gatut Daniarsyad

The Lombok region especially Mataram city, is situated in a very active seismic zone because of the existence of subduction zones and the Flores back arc thrust. Hence, the peak ground acceleration (PGA) at the surface is necessary for seismic design regulation referring to SNI 1726:2012. In this research we conduct a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to estimate the PGA at the bedrock with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years corresponding to the return period of 2500 years. These results are then multiplied by the amplification factor referred from shear wave velocity at 30 m depth (Vs30) and the microtremor method. The result of the analysis may describe the seismic hazard in Mataram city which is important for building codes.


2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 865-878 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. S. Vipin ◽  
P. Anbazhagan ◽  
T. G. Sitharam

Abstract. In this work an attempt has been made to evaluate the seismic hazard of South India (8.0° N–20° N; 72° E–88° E) based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). The earthquake data obtained from different sources were declustered to remove the dependent events. A total of 598 earthquakes of moment magnitude 4 and above were obtained from the study area after declustering, and were considered for further hazard analysis. The seismotectonic map of the study area was prepared by considering the faults, lineaments and the shear zones in the study area which are associated with earthquakes of magnitude 4 and above. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1°×0.1°, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the centre of each of these grid cells by considering all the seismic sources with in a radius of 300 km. Rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (SA) values at 1 s corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years have been calculated for all the grid points. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of these values are presented here. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) at rock level for 5% damping and 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were also developed for all the grid points. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) at surface level was calculated for the entire South India for four different site classes. These values can be used to find the PGA values at any site in South India based on site class at that location. Thus, this method can be viewed as a simplified method to evaluate the PGA values at any site in the study area.


Author(s):  
A. K. Ghosh ◽  
H. S. Kushwaha

The various uncertainties and randomness associated with the occurrence of earthquakes and the consequences of their effects on the NPP components and structures call for a probabilistic seismic risk assessment (PSRA). However, traditionally, the seismic design basis ground motion has been specified by normalised response spectral shapes and peak ground acceleration (PGA). The mean recurrence interval (MRI) used to be computed for PGA only. The present work develops uniform hazard response spectra i.e. spectra having the same MRI at all frequencies for Kakrapar Atomic Power Station site. Sensitivity of the results to the changes in various parameters has also been presented. These results determine the seismic hazard at the given site and the associated uncertainties. The paper also presents some results of the seismic fragility for an existing containment structure. The various parameters that could affect the seismic structural response include material strength of concrete, structural damping available within the structure and the normalized ground motion response spectral shape. Based on this limited case study the seismic fragility of the structure is developed. The results are presented as families of conditional probability curves plotted against the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The procedure adopted incorporates the various randomness and uncertainty associated with the parameters under consideration.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 215
Author(s):  
Anggun Mayang Sari ◽  
Afnindar Fakhrurrozi

The geological and seismic-tectonic setting in the Bandung Basin area proliferates the seismicity risk. Thus, it is necessary to investigate the seismic hazards caused by the foremost seismic source that affects the ground motions in the bedrock. This research employed Probability Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method to determine the peak ground acceleration value. It considers the source of the earthquakes in the radius of 500 km with a return period of 2500 years. The analysis results showed that the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) in this region varies from 0.46 g to 0.70 g. It correlates with the magnitude and hypocentre of the dominant earthquake source of the study locations. The PGA value on the bedrock was used as an input to develop the seismic hazard microzonation map. It was composed using the Geographic Information System (GIS) to visualise the result. This research provides a scientific foundation for constructing residential buildings and infrastructure, particularly as earthquake loads in the building structure design calculations. ABSTRACT - Mikrozonasi Bahaya Seismik Berdasarkan Probability Seismic Hazard Analysis di Cekungan Bandung. Kondisi geologi dan seismik-tektonik di Cekungan Bandung meningkatkan risiko kegempaan di wilayah tersebut. Oleh karena itu, perlu dilakukan penelitian tentang bahaya seismik yang disebabkan oleh sumber-sumber gempa di sekitarnya yang mempengaruhi gelombang gempa di batuan dasar. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Probability Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) untuk menentukan nilai percepatan gelombang gempa di batuan dasar. Lebih lanjut penelitian ini menggunakan sumber gempa dalam radius 500 km dengan periode perulangan 2500 tahun. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) di wilayah ini bervariasi dari 0,46 g hingga 0,70 g. Hal ini berkorelasi dengan magnitudo dan jarak hiposenter sumber gempa dominan terhadap lokasi penelitian. Nilai PGA di batuan dasar digunakan sebagai input data dalam pembuatan peta mikrozonasi bahaya seismik. Peta mikrozonasi bahaya seismik disusun dan divisualisasikan menggunakan Sistem Informasi Geografis (SIG). Luaran penelitian ini menghasilkan landasan ilmiah pada konstruksi bangunan tempat tinggal dan infrastruktur, khususnya sebagai pembebanan gempa dalam perhitungan desain struktur bangunan.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 116
Author(s):  
Rohima Wahyu Ningrum ◽  
Wiwit Suryanto ◽  
Hendra Fauzi ◽  
Estuning Tyas Wulan Mei

The earthquake that occurred in the West Halmahera region was very detrimental, even though the human casualties were not very significant. But it will affect the stability and capacity of a region in terms of regional development. The mapping of earthquake-prone areas is carried out by a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method to analyze soil movement parameters, namely Peak Ground Acceleration so that it can determine earthquake-prone areas in West Halmahera. The results of seismic hazard analysis show that the West Halmahera area is an area that is relatively prone to earthquake hazards because it is still strongly influenced by subduction (megathrust) earthquakes from the Philippine plate, Maluku sea and Sangihe. This is indicated by the value of earthquake acceleration on the Peak Ground Acceleration for the 500 year return period of around 0.38 - 3.69 g and 0.30 - 3.69 g for the 2500 year return period.


2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
G-A. Tselentis ◽  
L. Danciu

Abstract. Seismic hazard assessment represents a basic tool for rational planning and designing in seismic prone areas. In the present study, a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, Arias intensity and cumulative absolute velocity computed with a 0.05 g acceleration threshold, has been carried out for Greece. The output of the hazard computation produced probabilistic hazard maps for all the above parameters estimated for a fixed return period of 475 years. From these maps the estimated values are reported for 52 Greek municipalities. Additionally, we have obtained a set of probabilistic maps of engineering significance: a probabilistic macroseismic intensity map, depicting the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale obtained from the estimated peak ground velocity and a probabilistic seismic-landslide map based on a simplified conversion of the estimated Arias intensity and peak ground acceleration into Newmark's displacement.


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