Pricing-to-Market Using EGARCH-Error Correction Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baoying Lai ◽  
Nathan Lael Joseph
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Pricing To Market ◽  
Export Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Meat Sector

In this paper, the authors use an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH) error-correction model (ECM), that is, EGARCH-ECM, to estimate the pass-through effects of foreign exchange (FX) rates and producers’ prices for 20 U.K. export sectors. The long-run adjustment of export prices to FX rates and producers’ prices is within the range of -1.02% (for the Textiles sector) and -17.22% (for the Meat sector). The contemporaneous pricing-to-market (PTM) coefficient is within the range of -72.84% (for the Fuels sector) and -8.05% (for the Textiles sector). Short-run FX rate pass-through is not complete even after several months. Rolling EGARCH-ECMs show that the short and long-run effects of FX rate and producers’ prices fluctuate substantially as are asymmetry and volatility estimates before equilibrium is achieved.

Modeling Foreign Exchange Rate Pass-Through using the Exponential GARCH

2014 ◽  
pp. 139-190
Author(s):  
Baoying Lai ◽  
Nathan Lael Joseph
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rate ◽  
Pricing To Market ◽  
Export Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through ◽  
Meat Sector

In this chapter, the authors use an EGARCH-ECM to estimate the pass-through effects of Foreign Exchange (FX) rate changes and changes in producers’ prices for 20 U.K. export sectors. The long-run adjustments of export prices to FX rate changes and changes in producers’ prices are within the range of –1.02% (for the Textiles sector) and –17.22% (for the Meat sector). The contemporaneous Pricing-To-Market (PTM) coefficients are within the range of –72.84% (for the Fuels sector) and –8.05% (for the Textiles sector). Short-run FX rate pass-through is not complete even after several months. Rolling EGARCH-ECMs show that the short and long-run effects of changes in FX rate and producers’ prices vary substantially, as do asymmetry and volatility estimates before equilibrium is achieved.

scholarly journals The dynamic effect of exchange-rate volatility on Turkish exports: Parsimonious error-correction model approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 429-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erdal Demirhan ◽  
Banu Demirhan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Dynamic Effect ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Short Run

This paper aims to investigate the effect of exchange-rate stability on real export volume in Turkey, using monthly data for the period February 2001 to January 2010. The Johansen multivariate cointegration method and the parsimonious error-correction model are applied to determine long-run and short-run relationships between real export volume and its determinants. In this study, the conditional variance of the GARCH (1, 1) model is taken as a proxy for exchange-rate stability, and generalized impulse-response functions and variance-decomposition analyses are applied to analyze the dynamic effects of variables on real export volume. The empirical findings suggest that exchangerate stability has a significant positive effect on real export volume, both in the short and the long run.

scholarly journals Price Transmission and Factors Influencing the Price of Onions in Tanzania

2020 ◽  
pp. 67-76
Author(s):  
Yohana James Mgale
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Adjustment Cost ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This article analyzes the transmission of prices between marketing agents and the factors affecting onion prices at the consumer level. The Error Correction Model-Engle Granger (ECM-EG) was used to test the price transmission by including the impact of the rise and fall of producer, wholesale and retail prices in past periods. The Error Correction Model (ECM) was applied to the factors affecting onion prices. The test results showed that price transmission was asymmetrical in the short and long-run. With regard to factors, the results show that consumer price in the short-run was influenced by wholesale prices, producer prices and the price of fuel while in the long-run it was influenced by wholesale prices, producer price, price of fuel and consumer prices in the previous period (t-1). These results suggest the existence of a short-term adjustment cost and a long-term market power which distorts price transmission.

scholarly journals Integration Rice Price And Farmers Welfare With Error Correction Model Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 221-228
Author(s):  
Yogi Makbul
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Policy Intervention ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
Support Policy

This research analyzes the short- and long-term influence of rice prices on the welfare of Indonesian farmers using an error correction model. Drawing upon data from Indonesia's Central Bureau of Statistics, it reveals that rice prices exert significant positive short-run effects and no significant long-run influence on farmers' welfare. These findings extend or refine results from earlier studies that lack the time series perspective of our research. They also support policy intervention by the Indonesian government to increase farmers' welfare and assure food supply.  

scholarly journals Analysis of Indonesian Tax Revenue

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (01) ◽  
pp. 71
Author(s):  
Amalia Wijayanti ◽  
Firmansyah Firmansyah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

<p>This study analyzes the long-run and short-run effect of macroeconomic factors, such as real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation rate, exchange rate and government spending on Indonesia’s tax revenue during 1976-2013, by utilizing the Error Correction Model (ECM). The finding of the study demontrates that in the long-run; the real GDP, exchange rate, and government spending affect Indonesia’s tax revenue, except the inflation rate. In short-run, Indonesia’s tax revenue statisically affected by government spending, while others variable do not influence Indonesia’s tax revenue. Error Correction Term (ECT) coefficient is 0.221, explains incompatibility tax revenue occur in long-run is corrected of 22 percent in one period.</p><p><br />JEL Classification: E01, E20, H20<br />Keywords: Error Correction Model, Macroeconomic, Tax revenue</p>

Causality between VAT and economic growth in Nigeria: An ARDL bounds testing approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Hammed Agboola Yusuf ◽  
Irwan Shah Zainal Abidin ◽  
Normiza Bakar ◽  
Oluwaseyi Hammed Musibau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Value Added Tax(VAT) is a consumption tax imposed at every stage of consumption level whose burden is burned by final consumer of goods and services. In most developing economies in the world, VAT as a source of revenue to the government that has been notable for its significant role in ensuring economic efficiency. However, VAT revenue has been underutilised in Nigeria due to a high level of corruption in the process of administering the tax. This study examines the impact of VAT, domestic investment and trade openness on economic growth in Nigeria from 1980 to 2016 using ARDL techniques. The research design is time series, and the data were analysed using time series unit root test, error correction model regression, short run and long run ARDL. The result found that VAT, domestic investment and trade openness had a positive and significant impact on real GDP. Also, corruption index is negative also significant in the long run. In the same vein, past value added tax had a negative and weak significant impact on real gross domestic product indicating convergence to long-run causality between economic growths and VAT and economic growth. The Error Correction Model (ECM (-1)) coefficient had a negative and statistically significant sign. This shows that 39 percent can quickly correct short-run deviation. The study, therefore,  recommends that tax administrative loopholes should be plugged for tax revenue to contribute immensely to the development of the economy since past VAT had a significant impact on economic growth.

EFEK FISHER DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN CO-INTEGRATION DAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM)

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Sri Fatmawati ◽  
Algifari Algifari
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Fisher Effect ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Integration Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Correction Technique ◽  
Short Run

The aim of this research is to examine the existence of Fisher Effect for Indonesian Economy, by regressing interest rate on rate of inflation in period 1980-2011. With co-integration and error correction technique, the results indicate that an increases of one percent in inflation rate lead to increase in interest rate at 0,13 percent in short-run and at 0,95 percent in longrun. This research can’t confirm the existence of Fisher Effect in Indonesian Economy in short-run, but this effect exists in long-run. Keywords: Fisher Effect, Interest Rate, Inflation Rate, Co-integration, Error Correction Model

scholarly journals Evaluating the Persistence of j Curve Phenomenon in the Bilateral Trade between Bangladesh and USA: The ARDL Bounds Testing Approach and Granger Causality Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 74-81
Author(s):  
Subroto Dey ◽  
Homamul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Run

Most of the previously examined studies that investigated the repercussion of the trade balance to exchange rate mutation relied on the assumption that appreciation and depreciation behave symmetrically, recently several works have been conducted using the asymmetric analysis. In this work, we exhibited a model employing the disaggregated data (bilateral) of trade balance with the USA. In our pursuit, we endeavored to disclose a phenomenon of the J curve, is this pattern present in our trade balance and exchange rate bearing? In this article, first, we checked the stationary of data set and discovered the stationary employing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Phillips Peron then applying the ARDL bounds test of cointegration apropos to find out the long run co integrated equations and last of all, tried to investigate the short-run and long-run relationship among the variables, while we used the ECM (error correction model). The Toda-Yamamoto Procedure for Granger Causality in a VAR framework has been applied to detect the causal direction. In our model, we have blazoned the negative short-run rapport between the exchange rate and trade balance in the bilateral data, whereas we have remarked a discrepant bearing in the long run and we did receive the evidence of the appearance of j pattern in the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance. Dispensing the error correction model, we found domestic higher price level hinders the trade balance in the short run, did not find any evidence of foreign income stimulate the export. Toda-Yamamoto Procedure for Granger Causality reveals the unidirectional causal effect from exchange rate to trade balance of Bangladesh with the USA.

scholarly journals Interest rate pass-through: a nonlinear vector error-correction approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Ksawery Popiel
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Market Rate ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Nonlinear Vector ◽  
Pass Through

AbstractThis paper analyzes pass-through from money market rates to consumer retail loan and deposit rates in Canada from 1983 to 2015 using a nonlinear vector error-correction model. This model permits estimation of long-run pass-through coefficients while simultaneously accounting for asymmetric adjustments and short-run dynamics. In contrast to empirical frameworks used in previous studies, it also allows testing of commonly made assumptions such as exogeneity of the market rate, making inference more robust. I find that pass-through was complete for all rates before the financial crisis although only after the mid 1990s for the 1 year mortgage rate. Since the end of the 2008–2009 recession, pass-through remains complete in the mortgage market but has significantly declined for deposit rates. Furthermore, many rates adjust asymmetrically but the direction of rigidity differs among rates and time periods.

scholarly journals Assessment of cassava supply response in Nigeria using vector error correction model (VECM)

Agricultura ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 79-86
Author(s):  
Oluwakemi Adeola Obayelu ◽  
Samuel Ebute
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Agricultural Commodities ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Cassava Production

Abstract The response of agricultural commodities to changes in price is an important factor in the success of any reform programme in agricultural sector of Nigeria. The producers of traditional agricultural commodities, such as cassava, face the world market directly. Consequently, the producer price of cassava has become unstable, which is a disincentive for both its production and trade. This study investigated cassava supply response to changes in price. Data collected from FAOSTAT from 1966 to 2010 were analysed using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The results of the VECM for the estimation of short run adjustment of the variables toward their long run relationship showed a linear deterministic trend in the data and that Area cultivated and own prices jointly explained 74% and 63% of the variation in the Nigeria cassava output in the short run and long-run respectively. Cassava prices (P<0.001) and land cultivated (P<0.1) had positive influence on cassava supply in the short-run. The short-run price elasticity was 0.38 indicating that price policies were effective in the short-run promotion of cassava production in Nigeria. However, in the long-run elasticity cassava was not responsive to price incentives significantly. This suggests that price policies are not effective in the long-run promotion of cassava production in the country owing to instability in governance and government policies.

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