A New Short-Term Load Forecasting in Power Systems

2014 ◽  
Vol 494-495 ◽  
pp. 1631-1635
Author(s):  
Hui Li ◽  
Hong Bin Sun
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Daily Load

For realizing highly accuracy load forecasting, a new method is proposed. Power load time series belongs to chaotic series. Firstly, for obtaining three parameters in chaotic theory, namely time delay, embedding dimension and the number of the nearest neighbors, self-correlation function method and G-P algorithm are used to reconstruct the phase space of chaotic time series. Secondly, ant colony optimization approach is introduced to more accurately acquire forecasting reference points, considering distance and relativity of phase points evolution in this paper. Finally, GM (1, 1) Model is applied to forecast daily load data. The actual forecasting results prove that the new approach has better forecasting accuracy and convergence.

scholarly journals Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Deep Learning Bidirectional LSTM Neural Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 8129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changchun Cai ◽  
Yuan Tao ◽  
Tianqi Zhu ◽  
Zhixiang Deng
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Architecture Model ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

Accurate load forecasting guarantees the stable and economic operation of power systems. With the increasing integration of distributed generations and electrical vehicles, the variability and randomness characteristics of individual loads and the distributed generation has increased the complexity of power loads in power systems. Hence, accurate and robust load forecasting results are becoming increasingly important in modern power systems. The paper presents a multi-layer stacked bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM)-based short-term load forecasting framework; the method includes neural network architecture, model training, and bootstrapping. In the proposed method, reverse computing is combined with forward computing, and a feedback calculation mechanism is designed to solve the coupling of before and after time-series information of the power load. In order to improve the convergence of the algorithm, deep learning training is introduced to mine the correlation between historical loads, and the multi-layer stacked style of the network is established to manage the power load information. Finally, actual data are applied to test the proposed method, and a comparison of the results of the proposed method with different methods shows that the proposed method can extract dynamic features from the data as well as make accurate predictions, and the availability of the proposed method is verified with real operational data.

Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on Improved Wavelet Neural Network

2013 ◽  
Vol 816-817 ◽  
pp. 766-769
Author(s):  
Dong Xiao Niu ◽  
Lei Lei Fan ◽  
Chun Xiang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Wavelet Neural Network ◽  
Generalization Capability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Nonlinear Fitting ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

Accurate short-term load forecasting contributes to safe and economic operation of power systems. Due to the shortcomings of traditional wavelet neural network (WNN), which usually has low convergence rate and easily falls into local minimum, an improved wavelet neural network (IWNN) is proposed to modify the algorithm by introducing momentum. Together with the weighted average method (WA) and WNN, these three methods are applied to an example of short-term load forecasting. The results show that compared with the WA method, WNN has obvious advantages of nonlinear fitting and forecasting, and the IWNN method is superior to the others in terms of prediction accuracy and generalization capability, which is helpful to further improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting.

scholarly journals Short-term load forecasting using Theta method

2019 ◽  
Vol 84 ◽  
pp. 01004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grzegorz Dudek
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Seasonal Cycles ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Data Definition ◽  
System Data ◽  
Theta Method

The Theta method attracted the attention of researchers and practitioners in recent years due to its simplicity and superior forecasting accuracy. Its performance has been confirmed by many empirical studies as well as forecasting competitions. In this article the Theta method is tested in short-term load forecasting problem. The load time series expressing multiple seasonal cycles is decomposed in different ways to simplify the forecasting problem. Four variants of input data definition are considered. The standard Theta method is uses as well as the dynamic optimised Theta model proposed recently. The performances of the Theta models are demonstrated through an empirical application using real power system data and compared with other popular forecasting methods.

scholarly journals Load forecasting of refrigerated display cabinet based on CEEMD–IPSO–LSTM combined model

Open Physics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 360-374
Author(s):  
Yuan Pei ◽  
Lei Zhenglin ◽  
Zeng Qinghui ◽  
Wu Yixiao ◽  
Lu Yanli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Combined Model ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Consumption Reduction

Abstract The load of the showcase is a nonlinear and unstable time series data, and the traditional forecasting method is not applicable. Deep learning algorithms are introduced to predict the load of the showcase. Based on the CEEMD–IPSO–LSTM combination algorithm, this paper builds a refrigerated display cabinet load forecasting model. Compared with the forecast results of other models, it finally proves that the CEEMD–IPSO–LSTM model has the highest load forecasting accuracy, and the model’s determination coefficient is 0.9105, which is obviously excellent. Compared with other models, the model constructed in this paper can predict the load of showcases, which can provide a reference for energy saving and consumption reduction of display cabinet.

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