Prediction of Cylinder Fatigue Lifetime with Kernel Density Estimation Theory

2014 ◽  
Vol 644-650 ◽  
pp. 547-552 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Wang ◽  
Ping Yang ◽  
Qian Li ◽  
Jian Bao Wang ◽  
Song Yu
Keyword(s):  
Density Estimation ◽  
Kernel Density Estimation ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Kernel Density ◽  
Reliability Function ◽  
Adaptive Method ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Mechanical Equipment ◽  
Fatigue Lifetime ◽  
Gas Leak

As a part of power transfer process, cylinder plays an important role in pneumatic system. Its failure can cause mechanical equipment downtime suddenly and gas leak, so that production and personnel security will be in danger. Cylinder lifetime prediction has been an important topic. In this paper, an adaptive method based on Kernel Density Estimation is put forward for predicting the cylinder lifetime and getting the reliability function of cylinders. Kernel Density Estimation is a nonparametric estimation method of statistics. It can make full use of samples data without assuming distribution model. In the end, a comparison is made on the cylinder experiment between the proposed method and the common used parameter estimation method, Weibull distribution, and the results show that the proposed method has a more satisfactory performance.

scholarly journals Forecasting Hourly Power Load Considering Time Division: A Hybrid Model Based on K-means Clustering and Probability Density Forecasting Techniques

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 6954
Author(s):  
Fuqiang Li ◽  
Shiying Zhang ◽  
Wenxuan Li ◽  
Wei Zhao ◽  
Bingkang Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Probability Density ◽  
Density Estimation ◽  
Kernel Density Estimation ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Kernel Density ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Average Width ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Density Forecasting

In comparison with traditional point forecasting method, probability density forecasting can reflect the load fluctuation more effectively and provides more information. This paper proposes a hybrid hourly power load forecasting model, which integrates K-means clustering algorithm, Salp Swarm Algorithm (SSA), Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), and kernel density estimation (KDE) method. Firstly, the loads at 24 times a day are grouped into three categories according to the K-means clustering algorithm, which correspond to the valley period, flat period, and peak period of the load, respectively. Secondly, the load point forecasting value is obtained by LSSVM method optimized by SSA algorithm. Furthermore, the kernel density estimation method is employed to fit the forecasting error of SSA-LSSVM in different time periods, and the probability density function of the error distribution is obtained. The final load probability density forecasting result is obtained by combining the point forecasting value and the error fitting result, and then the upper and lower limits of the confidence interval under the given confidence level are solved. In this paper, the performance of the model is evaluated by two indicators named interval coverage and interval average width. Meanwhile, in comparison with several other models, it can be concluded that the proposed model can effectively improve the forecasting effect.

Multivariate and Multimodal Wind Distribution Model Based on Kernel Density Estimation

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Souma Chowdhury ◽  
Achille Messac ◽  
Luciano Castillo
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Density Estimation ◽  
Kernel Density Estimation ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Kernel Density ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Wind Condition ◽  
Air Density ◽  
Wind Distribution

This paper presents a new method to accurately characterize and predict the annual variation of wind conditions. Estimation of the distribution of wind conditions is necessary (i) to quantify the available energy (power density) at a site, and (ii) to design optimal wind farm configurations. We develop a smooth multivariate wind distribution model that captures the coupled variation of wind speed, wind direction, and air density. The wind distribution model developed in this paper also avoids the limiting assumption of unimodality of the distribution. This method, which we call the Multivariate and Multimodal Wind distribution (MMWD) model, is an evolution from existing wind distribution modeling techniques. Multivariate kernel density estimation, a standard non-parametric approach to estimate the probability density function of random variables, is adopted for this purpose. The MMWD technique is successfully applied to model (i) the distribution of wind speed (univariate); (ii) the distribution of wind speed and wind direction (bivariate); and (iii) the distribution of wind speed, wind direction, and air density (multivariate). The latter is a novel contribution of this paper, while the former offers opportunities for validation. Ten-year recorded wind data, obtained from the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN), is used in this paper. We found the coupled distribution to be multimodal. A strong correlation among the wind condition parameters was also observed.

Geospatial Crime Analysis to Determine Crime Density Using Kernel Density Estimation for the Indian Context

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-86
Author(s):  
Boppuru Rudra Prathap ◽  
K. Ramesha
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Density Estimation ◽  
Kernel Density Estimation ◽  
Financial Burden ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Kernel Density ◽  
Law Enforcement Agencies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Geographical Locations

Crime is the most common social problem faced in a developing country. Crime affects the reputation of a nation and the quality of life of its citizens. Crime also affects the economy of the country, increasing the financial burden of the government due to the need for expenditure in the police force and judicial system. Various initiatives are taken by law enforcement to reduce the crime rate. One such initiative, real-time accurate crime predictions can help reduce the occurrence of crime. In this paper, a crime analytics platform is developed, which processes newsfeed data analysis for different types of crimes and identify crime hotspots using Kernel Density Estimation method. This system enables criminologists to understand the hidden relationships between crime and geographical locations. Interactive visualization features are available that enable law enforcement agencies to predict crime.

scholarly journals Modeling the Charging Behaviors for Electric Vehicles Based on Ternary Symmetric Kernel Density Estimation

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lixing Chen ◽  
Xueliang Huang ◽  
Hong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Density Estimation ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Kernel Density Estimation ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Kernel Density ◽  
Data Transformation ◽  
Joint Estimation ◽  
Transformation Model ◽  
Inverse Transformation ◽  
Symmetric Kernel

The accurate modeling of the charging behaviors for electric vehicles (EVs) is the basis for the charging load modeling, the charging impact on the power grid, orderly charging strategy, and planning of charging facilities. Therefore, an accurate joint modeling approach of the arrival time, the staying time, and the charging capacity for the EVs charging behaviors in the work area based on ternary symmetric kernel density estimation (KDE) is proposed in accordance with the actual data. First and foremost, a data transformation model is established by considering the boundary bias of the symmetric KDE in order to carry out normal transformation on distribution to be estimated from all kinds of dimensions to the utmost extent. Then, a ternary symmetric KDE model and an optimum bandwidth model are established to estimate the transformed data. Moreover, an estimation evaluation model is also built to transform simulated data that are generated on a certain scale with the Monte Carlo method by means of inverse transformation, so that the fitting level of the ternary symmetric KDE model can be estimated. According to simulation results, a higher fitting level can be achieved by the ternary symmetric KDE method proposed in this paper, in comparison to the joint estimation method based on the edge KDE and the ternary t-Copula function. Moreover, data transformation can effectively eliminate the boundary effect of symmetric KDE.

scholarly journals A fast and objective multidimensional kernel density estimation method: fastKDE

2016 ◽  
Vol 101 ◽  
pp. 148-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Travis A. O’Brien ◽  
Karthik Kashinath ◽  
Nicholas R. Cavanaugh ◽  
William D. Collins ◽  
John P. O’Brien
Keyword(s):  
Density Estimation ◽  
Kernel Density Estimation ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Kernel Density
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