The Meridional Pressure Gradient Prediction by the Global Climate Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 866 ◽  
pp. 164-167
Author(s):  
Sunisa Saiuparad
Keyword(s):  
Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
Pressure Gradient ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Finite Size ◽  
Maximum Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Version 2.0 ◽  
Pressure Changes

The pressure gradient is a physical quantity that describes in which direction and at what rate the pressure changes the most rapidly around a particular location. The meridional pressure gradient can be prediction for the main forces acting on the air to make it move as wind. The randomly selected cases for this experiment are the Asian northeast monsoon downscaling for December 2049. The global climate model is the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), University of Bergen, Norway. Bergen Climate Model (BCM) Version 2.0 (BCCR-BCM2.0). The data predictions are the A2 scenario and COMMIT scenario. In this research maximum Lyapunov exponent (MLE) and finite size Lyapunov exponent (FSLE) for every 24-hr interval of the meridional pressure gradient from the BCCR-BCM2.0 model are calculated. The results show that the meridional pressure gradient prediction by the BCCR-BCM2.0 is not sensitive to scenario.

Predictability of the Northeast Monsoon Forecasts by the Educational Global Climate Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 804 ◽  
pp. 243-246
Author(s):  
Sunisa Saiuparad ◽  
Dusadee Sukawat
Keyword(s):  
Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Finite Size ◽  
Largest Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Finite Time Lyapunov Exponent

The predictability by an atmospheric prediction model is determined by the uncertainties in the initial condition and the imperfection of the model. It is difficult to provide accurate weather prediction and determines the predictability of a model. Atmospheric prediction model efficiency is obtained from the analysis of predictability measurement. Five existing predictability measurements; Lyapunov exponent, finite size Lyapunov exponent, finite time Lyapunov exponent, local Lyapunov exponent and largest Lyapunov exponent are used to measure predictability of the northeast monsoon (winter monsoon) by the Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM) and to test sensitivity of the model to small initial perturbations. The EdGCM is run for 142-year predictions from the year 1958 to 2100. However, only the outputs of geopotential height at 500hPa of December from 2012 to 2100 are used for predictability measurement. The results show that the EdGCM predictability for the northeast monsoon forecast is about 120 years.

Improvement the Largest Lyapunov Exponent for Measurement the Northeast Monsoon Prediction

2018 ◽  
Vol 879 ◽  
pp. 217-221
Author(s):  
Sunisa Saiuparad
Keyword(s):  
Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
Measurement Method ◽  
Limit Theorems ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Largest Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Medium Range Weather Forecast ◽  
The Largest Lyapunov Exponent

Thailand is an agricultural country. So that, the water resources are important. The water management is very important for keep the water used in necessary time. The monsoon is causes a heavy rain. So that, the monsoon prediction by the global climate model is important. The accuracy of the forecasts by the predictability measurement method is very important. In this research, the northeast monsoon prediction in Thailand by the global climate model. The data from The Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), University of Bergen, Norway. The global climate model is Bergen Climate Model (BCM) Version 2.0 (BCCR-BCM2.0) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) are used. The largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) is the predictability measurement method for verify the efficiency of the global climate model and improvement the LLE by limit theorems. The result to show that the improvement the LLE by limit theorems can be measure the accuracy of the northeast monsoon prediction in Thailand by the global climate model are suitable.

High bit rate ACTS experiments for performing global science - Keck Telescope and global climate model

1996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larry Bergman ◽  
J. Gary ◽  
Burt Edelson ◽  
Neil Helm ◽  
Judith Cohen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Bit Rate ◽  
Global Science ◽  
High Bit Rate

scholarly journals A comparison of ship and satellite measurements of cloud properties with global climate model simulations in the southeast Pacific stratus deck

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (14) ◽  
pp. 6527-6536 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Brunke ◽  
S. P. de Szoeke ◽  
P. Zuidema ◽  
X. Zeng
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Southeast Pacific ◽  
Cloud Thickness

Abstract. Here, liquid water path (LWP), cloud fraction, cloud top height, and cloud base height retrieved by a suite of A-train satellite instruments (the CPR aboard CloudSat, CALIOP aboard CALIPSO, and MODIS aboard Aqua) are compared to ship observations from research cruises made in 2001 and 2003–2007 into the stratus/stratocumulus deck over the southeast Pacific Ocean. It is found that CloudSat radar-only LWP is generally too high over this region and the CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud bases are too low. This results in a relationship (LWP~h9) between CloudSat LWP and CALIPSO cloud thickness (h) that is very different from the adiabatic relationship (LWP~h2) from in situ observations. Such biases can be reduced if LWPs suspected to be contaminated by precipitation are eliminated, as determined by the maximum radar reflectivity Zmax>−15 dBZ in the apparent lower half of the cloud, and if cloud bases are determined based upon the adiabatically-determined cloud thickness (h~LWP1/2). Furthermore, comparing results from a global model (CAM3.1) to ship observations reveals that, while the simulated LWP is quite reasonable, the model cloud is too thick and too low, allowing the model to have LWPs that are almost independent of h. This model can also obtain a reasonable diurnal cycle in LWP and cloud fraction at a location roughly in the centre of this region (20° S, 85° W) but has an opposite diurnal cycle to those observed aboard ship at a location closer to the coast (20° S, 75° W). The diurnal cycle at the latter location is slightly improved in the newest version of the model (CAM4). However, the simulated clouds remain too thick and too low, as cloud bases are usually at or near the surface.

Two-way coupling of an ENSO model to the global climate model CLIMBER-3

2009 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 94-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Anders Levermann ◽  
Stefan Rahmstorf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Enso Model

Downscaling of precipitation on a lake basin: evaluation of rule and decision tree induction algorithms

2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 215-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manish Kumar Goyal ◽  
C. S. P. Ojha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
M5 Model Tree ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Model Tree ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
M5 Model

We investigate the performance of existing state-of-the-art rule induction and tree algorithms, namely Single Conjunctive Rule Learner, Decision Table, M5 Model Tree, Decision Stump and REPTree. Downscaling models are developed using these algorithms to obtain projections of mean monthly precipitation to lake-basin scale in an arid region in India. The effectiveness of these algorithms is evaluated through application to downscale the predictand for the Lake Pichola region in Rajasthan state in India, which is considered to be a climatically sensitive region. The predictor variables are extracted from (1) the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the period 1948–2000 and (2) the simulations from the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for emission scenarios A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT for the period 2001–2100. M5 Model Tree algorithm was found to yield better performance among all other learning techniques explored in the present study. The precipitation is projected to increase in future for A2 and A1B scenarios, whereas it is least for B1 and COMMIT scenarios using predictors.

scholarly journals Sea-Breeze Dynamics and Convection Initiation: The Influence of Convective Parameterization in Weather and Climate Model Biases

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (20) ◽  
pp. 8093-8108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cathryn E. Birch ◽  
Malcolm J. Roberts ◽  
Luis Garcia-Carreras ◽  
Duncan Ackerley ◽  
Michael J. Reeder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Sea Breeze ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
Sea Temperature ◽  
Convective Parameterization ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Convection Initiation

Abstract There are some long-established biases in atmospheric models that originate from the representation of tropical convection. Previously, it has been difficult to separate cause and effect because errors are often the result of a number of interacting biases. Recently, researchers have gained the ability to run multiyear global climate model simulations with grid spacings small enough to switch the convective parameterization off, which permits the convection to develop explicitly. There are clear improvements to the initiation of convective storms and the diurnal cycle of rainfall in the convection-permitting simulations, which enables a new process-study approach to model bias identification. In this study, multiyear global atmosphere-only climate simulations with and without convective parameterization are undertaken with the Met Office Unified Model and are analyzed over the Maritime Continent region, where convergence from sea-breeze circulations is key for convection initiation. The analysis shows that, although the simulation with parameterized convection is able to reproduce the key rain-forming sea-breeze circulation, the parameterization is not able to respond realistically to the circulation. A feedback of errors also occurs: the convective parameterization causes rain to fall in the early morning, which cools and wets the boundary layer, reducing the land–sea temperature contrast and weakening the sea breeze. This is, however, an effect of the convective bias, rather than a cause of it. Improvements to how and when convection schemes trigger convection will improve both the timing and location of tropical rainfall and representation of sea-breeze circulations.

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