Reliability of Buried Pipeline Using FORM and Monte Carlo Simulation

2006 ◽  
Vol 321-323 ◽  
pp. 1543-1547 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ouk Sub Lee ◽  
Dong Hyeok Kim
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
Buried Pipeline ◽  
Two Phase ◽  
Surface Corrosion ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Power Models

The reliability estimation of pipelines is performed with help of the probabilistic method which considers the uncertainties included in the load and resistance parameters. The FORM (first order reliability method) is carried out to calculate the failure probability of corroded pipeline for the classified six distribution types of random variables. And the reliability of pipelines is assessed by using the failure probability. Furthermore, the MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) is used to verify the results of the FORM. It is noted that the failure probabilities of the linear and the power models for surface corrosion are similar and those of the two-phase model for surface corrosion are somewhat different for six cases of two failure pressure models such as ASME B31G and MB31G models. And it is also found that the FORM and the MCS give similar results for varying exposure time.

Reliability Estimation of Buried Pipeline Using FORM, SORM and Monte Carlo Simulation

2006 ◽  
Vol 326-328 ◽  
pp. 597-600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ouk Sub Lee ◽  
Dong Hyeok Kim
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Exposure Time ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
Buried Pipeline ◽  
First Order Reliability Method ◽  
First Order ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
The Difference

In this paper, the failure probability is estimated by using the FORM (first order reliability method), the SORM (second order reliability method) and the Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the reliability of the corroded pipeline. It is found that the FORM technique is more effective in estimating the failure probability than the SORM technique for B31G and MB31G models with three different corrosion models. Furthermore, it is noted that the difference between the results of the FORM, the SORM and the Monte Carlo simulation decreases with the increase of the exposure time.

Reliability of Buried Pipeline Using a Theory of Probability of Failure

2006 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 221-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ouk Sub Lee ◽  
Dong Hyeok Kim ◽  
Seon Soon Choi
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Buried Pipeline ◽  
Safety Level ◽  
First Order ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Corrosion Defects

The reliability estimation of buried pipeline with corrosion defects is presented. The reliability of corroded pipeline has been estimated by using a theory of probability of failure. And the reliability has been analyzed in accordance with a target safety level. The probability of failure is calculated using the FORM (first order reliability method). The changes in probability of failure corresponding to three corrosion models and eight failure pressure models are systematically investigated in detail. It is highly suggested that the plant designer should select appropriate operating conditions and design parameters and analyze the reliability of buried pipeline with corrosion defects according to the probability of failure and a required target safety level. The normalized margin is defined and estimated accordingly. Furthermore, the normalized margin is used to predict the failure probability using the fitting lines between failure probability and normalized margin.

Reliability Estimation for PVC Pipe Using Probability Theory and Stress Intensity Factor

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. S. Lee ◽  
D. H. Kim ◽  
H. M. Kim ◽  
H. B. Choi
Keyword(s):  
Stress Intensity Factor ◽  
Stress Intensity ◽  
Intensity Factor ◽  
Wall Thickness ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
State Function ◽  
Operating Pressure ◽  
Reliability Method

In this paper, the reliability estimation of Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipelines is performed by utilizing the probabilistic method, which accounts for the uncertainties in the load and resistance parameters in the limit state function (LSF). The LSF is formulated with the help of fracture control concept including the stress intensity factor (SIF) for the pipeline having crack or crack like defects. The common cracks found at pipeline can be assumed as semi-elliptical shape and the main load is hoop stress due to the internal pressure. The FORM (first order reliability method) and the SORM (second order reliability method) are carried out to estimate the failure probability of pipeline utilizing the SIF for semi-elliptical crack. The reliability is assessed using this failure probability. It is found that the failure probability increases with the operating pressure, and the decrease of the pipeline wall thickness, and the increase of the crack depth, the crack length, the outside diameter of pipeline. The failure probability increases when the initial crack approaches to a semi-circle shape of crack and the failure probability steeply increases at the ratios of larger than 0.5 of a/t and larger than 30 of D/t. Moreover, it is recognized that the effects of the fracture toughness and the pipe wall thickness on the failure probability are the significant one.

Failure Probability of Structure and its Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 732 ◽  
pp. 309-312
Author(s):  
Petr Kesl ◽  
František Plánička
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Properties ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
The Body ◽  
Steel Beam ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Simple Equations

The Simulation Based Reliability Assessment SBRA Method is a probabilistic method using the Monte Carlo simulation [1,3]. Substance of that method consists in repeated calculations of relatively simple equations, where entering variables (dimensions of the body, mechanical properties, loads, etc.) can be constant or defined by histograms, respectively. Probability of failures of the model and the steel beam were determined using Anthill software [3].

Effects of Various Types of Distribution on Probabilistic Method and FAD

2007 ◽  
Vol 353-358 ◽  
pp. 2561-2564
Author(s):  
Ouk Sub Lee ◽  
Dong Hyeok Kim
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
State Function ◽  
Operating Pressure ◽  
Lognormal Distributions ◽  
Reliability Method

The reliability estimation of pipeline is performed in accordance with the probabilistic methods such as the FORM (first order reliability method) and the SORM (second order reliability method). A limit state function has been formulated with help of the FAD (failure assessment diagram). Various types of distribution of random variables are assumed to investigate its effect on the failure probability. It is noted that the failure probability increases with the increase of the dent depth, the operating pressure and the outside radius, and the decrease of the wall thickness. Furthermore it is found that the failure probability for the random variables having the Weibull distribution is larger than those of the normal and the lognormal distributions.

System Reliability Estimation for a Manufacturing Network with Joint Buffers

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (04) ◽  
pp. 1850020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping-Chen Chang ◽  
Chia-Chun Wu ◽  
Chin-Tan Lee
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
System Reliability ◽  
Manufacturing System ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
Experimental Result ◽  
Production Lines ◽  
Work In Process ◽  
Process Output ◽  
Manufacturing Network

This paper develops a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) approach to estimate the performance of a multistate manufacturing network (MMN) with joint buffers. In the MMN, products are allowed to be produced by two production lines with the same function to satisfy demand. A performance index, system reliability, is applied to estimate the probability that all workstations provide sufficient capacity to satisfy a specified demand and buffers possess adequate storage. The joint buffers with finite storage are considered in the MMN. That is, extra work-in-process output from different production lines can be stored in the same buffer. An MCS algorithm is proposed to generate the capacity state and to check the storage usage of buffers to evaluate whether the demand can be satisfied or not. System reliability of the MMN is estimated through this MCS algorithm. Besides, performability for demand pairs assigned to production lines can be obtained. A practical example of touch panel manufacturing system is used to demonstrate the applicability of the MCS approach. Experimental result shows that system reliability is overestimated when buffer storage is assumed to be infinite. Moreover, joint buffer for an MMN is more reliable than buffers are installed separately in different production lines.

Reliability Estimation of Solder Joint by Using the Failure Probability Models

2006 ◽  
Vol 326-328 ◽  
pp. 621-624 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ouk Sub Lee ◽  
Man Jae Hur ◽  
Jai Sug Hawong ◽  
No Hoon Myoung ◽  
Dong Hyeok Kim
Keyword(s):  
Solder Joint ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Coefficient Of Thermal Expansion ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
Fatigue Loading ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
The Difference

The differences in the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) between the chip and the FR-4 board generate the shear strains and the bending moment in the solder joint. It seems to be a main cause of failure in the solder joint when the chip and the FR-4 board are heated repeatedly. Thus, the fatigue loading induced by thermal cycling is a major concern in the reliability of the solder joint. The magnitude of shear strain and the final failure are known to be influenced by varying boundary conditions such as the difference of CTE, the height of solder, the distance of the solder joint from the neutral point (DNP) and the temperature variation. In this paper, the effects of boundary conditions on the failure probability of the solder joint are studied by using the failure probability models such as the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Furthermore, the stiffness of the solder joint is considered to investigate the influence at the failure probability.

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