The Research on the Telecom Customer Churn Based on System Dynamics

2011 ◽  
Vol 480-481 ◽  
pp. 1003-1007
Author(s):  
Yong Wang ◽  
Li Yang ◽  
Min Li
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Marketing Strategies ◽  
Operating Costs ◽  
Flow Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
Customer Churn ◽  
Telecom Operator ◽  
Simulation Results

With the rapid development of telecommunication, the competition of telecom market becomes more and more drastic. It is very important for telecom operator to research how to keep from the telecom churn. In the paper, a model used to simulate the behavior of customers is constructed based on system dynamics. The causal loop diagram and flow diagram of the telecom churn is proposed and some simulation results are obtained. According to these simulation results, we give some suggestions to reduce the customer churn, which are valuable for telecom operators to maintain users, formulate marketing strategies and reduce operating costs.

scholarly journals Research on the Pollution of Express Plastic Packaging Based on System Dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 165 ◽  
pp. 02011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoqiang Ren ◽  
Cuiming Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Research And Development ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Environmental Pollution ◽  
Research Method ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Circuit Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Packaging System ◽  
Plastic Packaging ◽  
Causal Loop

With the rapid development of e-commerce, the environmental pollution caused by express plastic packaging is increasingly prominent. This paper takes express plastic packaging as the research object and analyzes its harm to the environment. Under the guidance of green logistics, using the research method of system dynamics, the causal loop diagram of express plastic packaging system is drawn and analyzed. Finally, based on the circuit diagram, the paper puts forward some measures, such as strengthening the construction of laws and regulations, improving the recycling system, strengthening research and development, industry standardization and focusing on publicity, to reduce the environmental pollution caused by express packaging.

scholarly journals Close the Loop! System Dynamics Modelling in Service Design

Systems ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
Eva Svirakova
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Research Methods ◽  
Service Design ◽  
Flow Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Loop Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
Grounded Theory Method ◽  
Innovative Solution ◽  
Axial Coding

Service design is a thought process using creativity, empathy in responding to a customer’s need and rationality in an analysis of a recommended, innovative solution. In this paper, we propose a research methods system which enables designers to integrate design and systems thinking into a system dynamics model of a creative project. Based on these research methods, topics and problems can be detected, and solutions can be proposed. The communicative game “Close the Loop!” which uses elements of visual language, and modifies the Grounded Theory method and its three processes: open coding, axial coding, and selective coding. The aim of the game is to create a Causal Loop Diagram which expresses a dynamic hypothesis, a Stock and Flow Diagram, which solves the problem visually and follows the Causal Loop Diagram. The accuracy of this set of method is demonstrated by its application in a case study from the service area. The article is intended for researchers who endeavour to use research methods in order to improve their services and meet a customer’s requirements.

Nuclear Penetration for a Deregulated Electricity Market for Peninsula Malaysia: A Systemic Feasibility Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-18
Author(s):  
TANG Suet Yee ◽  
TAN Andrew Huey Ping ◽  
YAP Eng Hwa
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Flow Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Loop Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
Deregulated Electricity Market ◽  
Business As Usual

Objective - This paper aims to investigate the feasibility of employing nuclear power in peninsula Malaysia, within the context of a deregulated electricity market framework. Methodology/Technique - System dynamics modelling and simulation has been adopted in this research. A qualitative causal loop diagram, which represent the relationships of key factors in the dynamics of nuclear power in peninsula Malaysia's electricity market, was first constructed. It is divided into three sections: (1) investment decisions, (2) power generation, and (3) maintaining business as usual. The causal loop diagram is converted into stock and flow diagram, where variables are quantified by input values and equation before simulated for a set period of 38 years. Three scenarios were designed to facilitate the research: (A) business, as usual, (B) nuclear power expansion, and (C) renewable energy expansion. Findings - Simulations showed that scenario B can potentially strengthen the region's energy security under specific conditions in addressing capacity redundancy and emissions reduction. Also, having a diverse market is paramount in contributing to the responsiveness of the market. Novelty - A systemic and dynamic understanding of the implications of two energy scenarios on the country has been established. Type of Paper: Empirical Keywords: Energy Security; Electricity Market; Deregulation; System Dynamics; Nuclear Power.

Modelling environmental and economic sustainability of logistics

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-94
Author(s):  
Pragya Arya ◽  
Manoj Kumar Srivastava ◽  
Mahadeo P. Jaiswal
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Economic Sustainability ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Bottom Line ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Loop Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
Model Based

Purpose Research on sustainability has progressed from a singular focus on one aspect to a simultaneous focus on more than one aspect of the triple bottom line. However, there is a dearth of research that explains why sustainability-related decisions in business often do not bear the expected results. Research that provides managers with a tool to achieve environmental sustainability of logistics without compromising the economic sustainability is scarce. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to bridge the above gaps and to explore the factors that affect investment in technology to balance environmental and economic sustainability of logistics. A model based on system dynamics approach explains the simultaneous interplay of these factors. Simulating the model helps the managers of logistics function decide the size of investment in technology, to achieve environmental efficiency without negatively influencing the economic performance. Design/methodology/approach A model based on system dynamics approach explains the simultaneous interplay of these factors. Simulating the model helps the managers of logistics function decide the size of investment in technology, to achieve ecological efficiency without compromising with the economic performance. Findings Collaboration with regulatory authorities and with players within the same industry and across industries is a must so that eco-logistics does not become an economic burden for businesses. The decision to invest in technology for eco-logistics is further accentuated if the technology promises some added economic benefits. Research limitations/implications From a theoretical perspective, the research has added to the less extensive literature on system dynamics modelling, which is a mixed methodology, combining both qualitative and quantitative techniques. The research is also one of the few attempts that have attempted to simultaneously study more than one aspects of sustainability in business, quantitatively through simulation. Simulation was demonstrated through a single case study, Future works can aim to apply the causal loop diagram to firms in varied sectors. Practical implications The managers can use the causal loop diagram to assess the environmental performance of logistics and decide on appropriate level of investment to balance ecological and economic performance of logistics. Originality/value The causal loop diagram has been developed through primary data collection via semi-structured interviews. The results were validated by presenting them to respondents to ensure they represent their view points. The results are, therefore, practical and original. This research does not build upon an existing data set or aims to test the applicability of any existing model. The model for this research has been developed from the grass-roots level.

scholarly journals Theory of an Emerging-State Actor: the ISIS Case

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Clancy
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Rapid Growth ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
Combat Simulation ◽  
State Actor ◽  
State Actors

This paper seeks to explain the rapid growth of the Islamic State of Iraq & Syria (ISIS) and approach the question of “what is” the Islamic State? The paper offers several contributions. First is the proposal of a dynamic hypothesis that ISIS is an emerging-state actor and differs notably from traditional non-state actors and insurgencies. The theory consists of both a causal loop diagram and key propositions. A detailed system dynamics simulation (E-SAM) was constructed to test the theory. The propositions of emerging-state actor theory are constructed as synthetic experiments within the simulation and confirm evidence of emerging-state actor behavior. E-SAM’s novelty is its combination of combat simulation with endogenous geospatial feedback, ethnographic behavior in choosing sides in conflict, and details internal simulation of key actor mechanisms such as financing, recruiting and governance. E-SAM can be loaded with scenarios to simulate non-state actors in different geospatial domains: ISIS in Libya, Boko Haram in Nigeria, Taliban in Afghanistan and even expatriated ISIS fighters returning to pursue new conflicts such as in Indonesia.

scholarly journals PENYUSUNAN SKENARIO KEBIJAKAN UNTUK PENINGKATAN KINERJA PT. XYZ MENGGUNAKAN METODE DYNAMIC BALANCED SCORECARD

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Aries Susanty ◽  
Heri Suliantoro ◽  
Halida Dyandra
Keyword(s):  
Balanced Scorecard ◽  
Employee Satisfaction ◽  
Survey Methods ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Loop Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
Company Record ◽  
Simulation Results

PT.XYZ perlu untuk mengembangkan metode Balanced Scorecard (BSC) yang saat ini digunakannya menjadi System Dynamics-Based Balanced Scorecard (SD–BSC) karena keterbatasn dari metode BSC untuk memetakan hubungan timbal balik antara indikator-indikator yang digunakan dan ketercapaian target-target yang telah ditetapkan. Berdasarkan hal tersebut, studi ini memeliki beberapa tujuan. Pertama, menyusun causal loop diagram (CLD) dari indikator-indikator BSC yang telah dikembangkan oleh PT. XYZ; kedua, menyusun skenario kebijakan dan melakukan simulasi; serta ketiga, mengusulkan sejumlah rekomendasi kepada PT. XYZ atas dasar hasil simulasi tersebut. Studi ini menggunakan metode survai yang berupa wawancara dan penyebaran kuesioner untuk mengidentifikasi dan memvalidasi indiktor-indiktor yang nantinya berfungsi sebagai variabel dalam CLD. Studi ini juga menggunakan data sekunder berupa catatan perusahaan untuk mengetahui kondisi masing-masing indikator dan data-data lain yang dibutuhhkan. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa indikator yang memberikan pengaruh terbesar pada pendapatan dan laba adalah jumlah produksi listrik sehingga indikator tersebut perlu diprioritaskan. Skenario terbaik dari hasil simulasi adalah skenario gabungan dengan memperoleh laba kumulatif sebesar Rp 5.875.297.558 dan pendapatan kumulatif sebesar Rp 40.959.313.558. Pencapaian laba dan pendapatan tersebut diperolah dari meningkatkan produktivitas operator sebesar 22,2%. Peningkatan produktivitas operator dapat dilakukan dengan meningkatkan kepuasan karyawan sebesar 25,69% dan meningkatkan jumlah karyawan mengikuti training menjadi 30 – 35 orang. Singkatnya, PT.XYZ perlu memberikan perhatian lebih pada Sumber Daya Manusia (SDM) untuk mengoptimalkan perolehan pendapatan dan laba. Abstract PT. XYZ needs to develop a Balanced Scorecard (BSC) method which is currently used as a Dynamics-Based Balanced Scorecard (SD-BSC) because of the limitations of the BSC method to map the causal relationshi between indicators used and the achievement of targets has been established. Based on this condion, this study have several purposes. First, develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) of an indicator-indicator of BSC that has been developed by PT. XYZ; second, compile and stimulate several policy scenarios, and third, propose several recommendations to PT. XYZ based on the simulation results. This study uses survey methods in the form of interviews and questionnaires to identify and validate indictors which is used as variavle in CLD. This study also use secondary data in form of company record to know the condition of each indicator and the other data needed. The results of this study indicate the importance indicator which has the greatest influence on income and profits is the amount of electricity production. This indicator need to be prioritized. The best scenario from the simulation results is a combined scenario with a cumulative profit of Rp. 5,875,297,558 and cumulative income of Rp. 40,959,313,558. The achievement of profit and income is obtained from increasing operator productivity by 22.2%. Increased operator productivity can be done by increasing employee satisfaction by 25.69% and increasing the number of employees participating in training to be 30-35 people. In short, PT. XYZ needs to pay more attention to Human Resources (HR) to optimize revenue and profit.Keywords: PT.XYZ; indicator; scenarios; system dynamic; dynamic-based balanced scorecard

scholarly journals Theory of an Emerging-State Actor: the ISIS Case

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Clancy
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Rapid Growth ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
Combat Simulation ◽  
State Actor ◽  
State Actors

This paper seeks to explain the rapid growth of the Islamic State of Iraq & Syria (ISIS) and approach the question of “what is” the Islamic State? The paper offers several contributions. First is the proposal of a dynamic hypothesis that ISIS is an emerging-state actor and differs notably from traditional non-state actors and insurgencies. The theory consists of both a causal loop diagram and key propositions. A detailed system dynamics simulation (E-SAM) was constructed to test the theory. The propositions of emerging-state actor theory are constructed as synthetic experiments within the simulation and confirm evidence of emerging-state actor behavior. E-SAM’s novelty is its combination of combat simulation with endogenous geospatial feedback, ethnographic behavior in choosing sides in conflict, and details internal simulation of key actor mechanisms such as financing, recruiting and governance. E-SAM can be loaded with scenarios to simulate non-state actors in different geospatial domains: ISIS in Libya, Boko Haram in Nigeria, Taliban in Afghanistan and even expatriated ISIS fighters returning to pursue new conflicts such as in Indonesia.

scholarly journals PENENTUAN STRATEGI BERSAING BERDASARKAN SIMULASI SISTEM DINAMIS ( Studi Kasus di Industri Kecil Intan Rahmadhani Yogyakarta )

OPSI ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
Susi Dwi Rahayu ◽  
Dyah Rachmawati Lucitasari ◽  
Sutrisno Sutrisno
Keyword(s):  
Flow Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Loop Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
Stock Flow

Industri kecil Intan Rahmadhani merupakan salah satu industri makanan yang menjual produk berupa kripik tempe dan beberapa produk kripik lainnya yang berbahan baku dari sayuran dan biji-bijian. Permasalahan yang dihadapi industri Intan Rahmadhani saat ini adalah persaingan industri yang tinggi dan penjualan produk yang terus menurun. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan strategi bersaing yang dapat digunakan dalam menghadapi persaingan maupun memperbaiki kondisi yang sedang dialami industri Intan Rahmadhani. Penelitian ini diawali dengan menganalisis strategi yang sesuai dengan kondisi internal maupun eksternal industri Intan Rahmadani. Hasil dari analisis diperoleh tiga strategi yaitu inovasi produk, promosi dengan diskon, dan penjualan online. Strategi yang diperoleh dimodelkan berdasarkan simulasi sistem dinamis dengan software powersim. Pada pemodelan strategi dilakukan penyusunan causal loop diagram dan stock flow diagram untuk melihat hubungan timbal balik antar valiabel. Hasil dari simulasi dilakukan uji validasi menggunakan uji rata-rata (mean comparison). Pada penelitian ini pembangkitan skenario didasarkan pada hasil dari analsis strategi.Berdasarkan pengujian tingkat error, rekomendasi strategi yang tepat untuk industri Intan Rahmadhani adalah strategi pertama yaitu inovasi produk. Inovasi produk yang dilakukan adalah  menambah varian rasa produk coklat dan BBQ dengan harga jual yang sama yaitu sebesar Rp 7.500,-

scholarly journals ANALISIS DAN PEMODELAN DINAMIS PENGGUNAAN KENDARAAN BERMOTOR DI UNIVERSITAS MA CHUNG

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-50
Author(s):  
Yuswono Hadi ◽  
Oktavia Anisa Rawindra
Keyword(s):  
Flow Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Loop Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
Stock And Flow Diagram

Jumlah civitas akademik Universitas Ma Chung yang semakin meningkat setiap tahunnya, membuat jumlah kendaraan bermotor milik pribadi baik roda dua maupun roda empat meningkat pula. Peningkatan jumlah kendaraan tersebut akan menyebabkan jejak karbon. Langkah Universitas Ma Chung untuk melakukan penyegahan jejak karbon yang terus menerus meningkat tersebut adalah mengadakan program kampus berwawan lingkungan (Eco Campus). Dalam mencapai hal tersebut dilakukan rancangan causal loop diagram, simulasi pemodelan sistem dinamis (stock and flow diagram) dengan software Stella untuk mendapatkan skenario usulan terbaik. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian didapatkan skenario usulan terbaik berupa pelaksanaan hari bebas kendaraan (car free day) dua kali dalam sebulan. Melalui skenario usulan tersebut didapatkan hasil perhitungan stock and flow diagram total nilai tapak karbon kendaraan bermotor di Universitas Ma Chung berkurang sebesar 517,2 ton of kg CO2untuk satu tahun kedepan dari kondisi awal.

scholarly journals DINAMIKA SISTEM EKONOMI SIRKULAR BERBASIS MASYARAKAT METODE CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM KOTA BENGKAYANG

Sebatik ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aloysius Hari Kristianto ◽  
Jones Parlindungan Nadapdap
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Delay Time ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Loop Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
Change Behavior

Ekonomi sirkular merupakan sebuah konsep ekonomi yang mengimplementasikan tujuan pembangunan berkelanjutan yang terkait dengan tingkat konsumsi dan produksi yang bertanggung jawab dan berkelanjutan. Konsep ekonomi ini memberikan sebuah solusi dari permasalahan sampah yang diproduksi oleh masyarakat, dengan tujuan membuat produk baru dari sumber daya sampah yang bermanfaat dan bernilai ekonomi. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengidentifikasi permasalahan tata kelola sampah dalam kontribusinya terhadap perekonomian daerah dan lingkungan hidup. Metode penelitian yang dipergunakan adalah metode kualitatif dinamika sistem (system dynamics) pendekatan Causal Loop Diagram. Teknik analisa data dengan menggunakan metode triangulasi yaitu wawancara mendalam dengan key informan, observasi partisipatif dan dokumentasi. Masih perlunya waktu secara bertahap (delay time) dalam mengimplementasikan konsep ekonomi sirkular berbasis masyarakat di kota Bengkayang terutama terkait dengan change behavior. Perlu adanya tindakan kolaboratif antar stakeholder seperti masyarakat umum, pemerintah daerah, pengusaha dan aktifis lingkungan hidup dalam mengimplementasikan sistem ekonomi sirkular. Program yang dapat dilakukan adalah dengan membentuk bank sampah pada setiap desa dan bank sampah induk dari Dinas Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan, menerapkan konsep 3R ( reduce-reuse-recycle ) untuk setiap rumah tangga serta pendampingan dan pelatihan mengenai tata kelola sampah yang bertanggung jawab di setiap desa, sekolah dasar hingga SMA/SMK. Pentingnya keterlibatan para stakeholder dalam membentuk partisipasi masyarakat untuk menerapkan sistem ekonomi sirkular hingga masyarakat mampu secara mandiri.

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