scholarly journals Searching for space-time clusters: The CutL method compared to Kulldorff’s scan statistic

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Więckowska ◽  
Ilona Górna ◽  
Maciej Trojanowski ◽  
Agata Pruciak ◽  
Barbara Stawińska-Witoszyńska
Keyword(s):  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Care Planning ◽  
Spatial Clusters ◽  
Health Care Planning ◽  
Scan Statistic ◽  
Software Company ◽  
The One ◽  
Analytical Tools

Both epidemiology and health care planning require analytical tools, especially for cluster detection in cases with unusually high rates of disease incidence. The aim of this work was to extend the application of the CutL method, which is used for detecting spatial clusters of any shape, to detecting space-time clusters, and to show how the method works compared to Kulldorff’s scan statistic. In the CutL method, clusters with disease incidence rates higher than the one entered by the researcher are searched for. The way in which the space-time version of that method works is illustrated with the example of data simulating the distribution of people affected by health problems in Polish counties in the period 2013- 2017. With respect to detection of irregularly shaped space-time clusters, the CutL method turned out to be more effective than Kulldorff’s scan statistic; for cylinder-shaped space-time clusters, the two methods produced similar results. The CutL method has also the important advantage of being widely accessible through the PQScut and PQStat programmes (PQStat Software Company, Poznan, Poland).

scholarly journals Space–Time Clustering Characteristics of Malaria in Bhutan at the End Stages of Elimination

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 5553
Author(s):  
Kinley Wangdi ◽  
Kinley Penjor ◽  
Tobgyal ◽  
Saranath Lawpoolsri ◽  
Ric N. Price ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Control Program ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Data Repository ◽  
Spatial Clusters ◽  
Scan Statistic ◽  
Disease Control Program ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
Program Data ◽  
Time Scan

Malaria in Bhutan has fallen significantly over the last decade. As Bhutan attempts to eliminate malaria in 2022, this study aimed to characterize the space–time clustering of malaria from 2010 to 2019. Malaria data were obtained from the Bhutan Vector-Borne Disease Control Program data repository. Spatial and space–time cluster analyses of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax cases were conducted at the sub-district level from 2010 to 2019 using Kulldorff’s space–time scan statistic. A total of 768 confirmed malaria cases, including 454 (59%) P. vivax cases, were reported in Bhutan during the study period. Significant temporal clusters of cases caused by both species were identified between April and September. The most likely spatial clusters were detected in the central part of Bhutan throughout the study period. The most likely space–time cluster was in Sarpang District and neighboring districts between January 2010 to June 2012 for cases of infection with both species. The most likely cluster for P. falciparum infection had a radius of 50.4 km and included 26 sub-districts with a relative risk (RR) of 32.7. The most likely cluster for P. vivax infection had a radius of 33.6 km with 11 sub-districts and RR of 27.7. Three secondary space–time clusters were detected in other parts of Bhutan. Spatial and space–time cluster analysis identified high-risk areas and periods for both P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria. Both malaria types showed significant spatial and spatiotemporal variations. Operational research to understand the drivers of residual transmission in hotspot sub-districts will help to overcome the final challenges of malaria elimination in Bhutan.

scholarly journals A comparison of prospective space-time scan statistics and spatiotemporal event sequence based clustering for COVID-19 surveillance

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. e0252990
Author(s):  
Fuyu Xu ◽  
Kate Beard
Keyword(s):  
Sequence Similarity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Scan Statistics ◽  
World Health ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Event Sequence ◽  
Scan Statistic ◽  
Time Scan

The outbreak of the COVID-19 disease was first reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Cases in the United States began appearing in late January. On March 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic. By mid-March COVID-19 cases were spreading across the US with several hotspots appearing by April. Health officials point to the importance of surveillance of COVID-19 to better inform decision makers at various levels and efficiently manage distribution of human and technical resources to areas of need. The prospective space-time scan statistic has been used to help identify emerging COVID-19 disease clusters, but results from this approach can encounter strategic limitations imposed by constraints of the scanning window. This paper presents a different approach to COVID-19 surveillance based on a spatiotemporal event sequence (STES) similarity. In this STES based approach, adapted for this pandemic context we compute the similarity of evolving daily COVID-19 incidence rates by county and then cluster these sequences to identify counties with similarly trending COVID-19 case loads. We analyze four study periods and compare the sequence similarity-based clusters to prospective space-time scan statistic-based clusters. The sequence similarity-based clusters provide an alternate surveillance perspective by identifying locations that may not be spatially proximate but share a similar disease progression pattern. Results of the two approaches taken together can aid in tracking the progression of the pandemic to aid local or regional public health responses and policy actions taken to control or moderate the disease spread.

scholarly journals Spatial analysis of avoidable hospitalizations due to tuberculosis in Ribeirao Preto, SP, Brazil (2006-2012)

2016 ◽  
Vol 50 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mellina Yamamura ◽  
Isabela Moreira de Freitas ◽  
Marcelino Santo Neto ◽  
Francisco Chiaravalloti Neto ◽  
Marcela Antunes Paschoal Popolin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Southeastern Brazil ◽  
Scan Statistic ◽  
Avoidable Hospitalizations

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the spatial distribution of avoidable hospitalizations due to tuberculosis in the municipality of Ribeirao Preto, SP, Brazil, and to identify spatial and space-time clusters for the risk of occurrence of these events. METHODS This is a descriptive, ecological study that considered the hospitalizations records of the Hospital Information System of residents of Ribeirao Preto, SP, Southeastern Brazil, from 2006 to 2012. Only the cases with recorded addresses were considered for the spatial analyses, and they were also geocoded. We resorted to Kernel density estimation to identify the densest areas, local empirical Bayes rate as the method for smoothing the incidence rates of hospital admissions, and scan statistic for identifying clusters of risk. Softwares ArcGis 10.2, TerraView 4.2.2, and SaTScanTM were used in the analysis. RESULTS We identified 169 hospitalizations due to tuberculosis. Most were of men (n = 134; 79.2%), averagely aged 48 years (SD = 16.2). The predominant clinical form was the pulmonary one, which was confirmed through a microscopic examination of expectorated sputum (n = 66; 39.0%). We geocoded 159 cases (94.0%). We observed a non-random spatial distribution of avoidable hospitalizations due to tuberculosis concentrated in the northern and western regions of the municipality. Through the scan statistic, three spatial clusters for risk of hospitalizations due to tuberculosis were identified, one of them in the northern region of the municipality (relative risk [RR] = 3.4; 95%CI 2.7–4,4); the second in the central region, where there is a prison unit (RR = 28.6; 95%CI 22.4–36.6); and the last one in the southern region, and area of protection for hospitalizations (RR = 0.2; 95%CI 0.2–0.3). We did not identify any space-time clusters. CONCLUSIONS The investigation showed priority areas for the control and surveillance of tuberculosis, as well as the profile of the affected population, which shows important aspects to be considered in terms of management and organization of health care services targeting effectiveness in primary health care.

Work-related Musculoskeletal Disorders in Emergency Medical Personnel

2020 ◽  
pp. 42-45
Author(s):  
L.M. Karamova ◽  
V.O. Krasovskiy ◽  
D.M. Vagapova ◽  
N.V. Vlasova ◽  
A.S. Khafizova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Connective Tissue ◽  
Musculoskeletal Disorders ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Medical Personnel ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Connective Tissue Disorders ◽  
Ambulance Personnel ◽  
Occupational Risk Factors ◽  
Emergency Medical ◽  
Emergency Medical Personnel

Relevance. The importance of studying and analyzing contribution of occupational risk factors in musculoskeletal disorders among emergency medical personnel is related to high disease incidence rates and work specifics. The objective of our research envisaged formalization of information obtained for the analysis and assessment of occupational risks of developing musculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders in ambulance personnel. Results. According to professional medical examination results, musculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders ranked second among all diagnosed diseases. The relative risk of developing those disorders was 70% indicating the link between them and transport vibration (category 1) affecting the backbone during long trips in ambulance cars.

Engagement of mental health service users and carers in care planning – Is it meaningful and adding value?

2021 ◽  
pp. 103985622110286
Author(s):  
Russ Scott ◽  
Andrew Aboud
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Mental Health Service ◽  
Health Service ◽  
Service Users ◽  
Care Planning ◽  
Positive Outcomes ◽  
Engagement In Care ◽  
Health Care Planning ◽  
Meaningful Engagement ◽  
Meta Analyses

Objective: Consider whether mental health service users and carers meaningfully engage in care planning and whether care planning adds value to patient care. Conclusion: A review of the meta-analyses and systematic reviews of service users and carers identified many barriers to their meaningful engagement in care planning. No research has demonstrated any measurable benefits or positive outcomes linked to mental health care planning.

scholarly journals A retrospective database analysis of burden of IPD and pneumonia in children <15y in Veneto region

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
E Barbieri ◽  
A Cantarutti ◽  
G Porcu ◽  
T Hu ◽  
T Petigara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Average Cost ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Invasive Disease ◽  
Healthcare Resource Utilization ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Regional Population

Abstract Background IPD and pneumonia are associated with high mortality and healthcare resource utilization (HCRU). This analysis assessed incidence, HCRU and costs of IPD and pneumonia following PCV13 introduction in 2010 in Veneto. Methods IPD, unspecified invasive disease episodes, outpatient pneumococcal and unspecified pneumonia episodes were identified in Pedianet, a pediatric primary care database from 2010-2017. HCRU includes primary care and specialist visits, antibiotic prescriptions, diagnostics, ER visits and hospitalizations. Incidence rates (IRs) were numbers of episodes/1,000 person-years. Standardized regional incidence rates (SRIRs) were calculated by standardizing IRs with regional population data by age and year. Regional expenditures (€/1,000 person-years) were calculated by multiplying SRIRs with average costs per episode. Interrupted time series (ITS) analyses assessed trends in annual IRs in the early and late PCV13 (2010-2013, 2014-2017) periods. Results During 2010-2017, IPD and unspecified invasive disease incidence decreased from 0.40 to 0.31/1,000 person-years. While incidence was numerically lower in 2017 than in 2010, ITS analysis did not detect a significant trend in the early (coef=1.97; p = 0.63) or late PCV13 (coef=0.50; p = 0.90) periods. Average cost per episode was €4206 and average regional expenditure was €171/1,000 person-year. SRIR for outpatient pneumonia decreased from 13.35 to 5.48/1,000 person-year during 2010 to 2017. Pneumonia episodes were associated with 0.29 ER visits and 0.15 short stay and 0.06 long stay hospitalization. Average cost per episode was €345, majority of which was associated with ER visits (€50.8) and hospitalizations (€243.9). Regional expenditures decreased from €12852.31 to €5351.98/1,000 person-year. Conclusions IPD and unspecified invasive disease burden did not change significantly following PCV13 introduction, while disease burden declined for outpatient pneumococcal and unspecified pneumonia. Key messages IPD and unspecified invasive disease burden did not change significantly following PCV13 introduction. Disease burden declined for outpatient pneumococcal and unspecified pneumonia following PCV13.

scholarly journals The Epidemiology of Infantile Spasms

2001 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 309-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.M. Brna ◽  
K.E. Gordon ◽  
J.M. Dooley ◽  
E.P. Wood
Keyword(s):  
Prince Edward Island ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Epidemiologic Studies ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Infantile Spasms ◽  
Clinical Impression ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Marked Variability ◽  
Canadian Provinces

Objective:The aim of this study was to estimate population based incidence rates for infantile spasms (IS) and to study our clinical impression that the incidence of IS has recently decreased in the Canadian Provinces of Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island.Methods:Birth cohorts from 1978 to 1998, identified through the hospital health records, EEG records and physician computerized databases, were followed for two years for the development of IS. Disease incidence rates were calculated using denominators derived from Statistics Canada's reported annual live birth rates.Results:The inclusion criteria for IS were fulfilled by 75 patients. The overall incidence of IS was 30.7/100,000 live births (95% CI 24.3, 38.8). Etiologic classification was symptomatic for 51 cases (68%), cryptogenic for 18 (24%), and idiopathic in six children (8%). Although there were more males (N=44) than females (N=31), the incidence rates were similar. There was a marked variability in annual and five-year incidence rates.Conclusion:Although the clinical characteristics of our patients were similar to other reported IS populations, the instability in IS incidence rates indicates a need for caution in interpreting smaller IS epidemiologic studies.

Some Issues of Morbidity with Temporary Incapacity for Work in the Ural Federal District

2021 ◽  
pp. 37-44
Author(s):  
AS Shastin ◽  
VG Gazimova ◽  
OL Malykh ◽  
TS Ustyugova ◽  
TM Tsepilova
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Statistical Information ◽  
Working Age ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Common ◽  
Working Age Population

Introduction: In the context of a decreasing size of the working-age population, monitoring of the health status and disease incidence in this cohort shall be one of the most important tasks of public and occupational health professionals. Health risk management for the working population in the Russian Federation requires complete and reliable data on its morbidity, especially in view of the fact that its average age demonstrates a stable growth. It is, therefore, crucial to have precise and consistent information about the morbidity of the working-age population. Objective: The study aimed to assess incidence rates of diseases with temporary incapacity for work in the constituent entities of the Ural Federal District of the Russian Federation. Materials and methods: We reviewed data on disease incidence rates published by the Federal State Statistics Service in the Common Interdepartmental System of Statistical Information, Section 15.12, Causes of Temporary Disability, and Section 2.9.I.4, Federal Project for Public Health Promotion. The constituent entities under study were ranked according to the number of cases and days of temporary incapacity per 100 workers and E.L. Notkin scale was used to determine grade the incidence. The statistical analysis was performed using STATISTICA 10 software. Long-term average values of certain indicators, median values, standard deviation (σ) and coefficients of variation were estimated. The difference in the indices was assessed using the Mann-Whitney test. Results: Compared to 2010, incidence rates of diseases with temporary incapacity for work in the constituent entities of the Ural Federal District in 2019 demonstrated a significant decline. The sharp drop was observed in 2015. We also established that the Common Interdepartmental System of Statistical Information contains contradictory information on disease incidence. Conclusion: It is expedient to consider the issue of revising guidelines for organization of federal statistical monitoring of morbidity with temporary incapacity for work and to include this indicator in the system of public health monitoring.

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