scholarly journals Combining quantitative and qualitative data in business cycle research

1986 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 143-148
Author(s):  
E. Smit

In this article a leading indicator of the South African business cycle is proposed which combines the traditional quantitative data inputs with qualitative data. The integration is achieved via the Kalman filter technique. It is shown that this model surpasses the traditional approaches in accuracy.

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 372-391
Author(s):  
Irrshad Kaseeram ◽  
Darma Mahadea

Recent research has shown that in both developed and emerging market economies, the labour share of national income has exhibited a declining trend since the 1980s. Research investigating the problem of high unemployment in the South African economy has inferred that this problem arises partly because of past and current socio-political conditions, low rates of economic growth, labour market rigidities, globalisation and institutional arrangements. As the labour absorption capacity is rather low, many people are unable to earn an income from an engagement in the formal labour market. This is likely to have implications for the relative distribution share of labour and capital in the country’s national income. However, no recent published research has investigated this phenomenon in the South African context. Thus, this paper attempts to shed some light on the problem. Using yearly data from 1946 to 2013, the study employs the Kalman filter methodology within the standard Cobb-Douglas production function framework to investigate how labour and capital shares as well as total factor productivity have been behaving in this period. The results indicate that the share of total income going to labour has decreased over the long run, while that of capital has increased. Specifically, the share of capital increased from 3.1% in 1980 to 12% in 2013, while that of labour decreased from 91% to 83%. This reflects a rising income inequality and concentration of wealth, with output and income generation shifting to technological- or capital -intensive production requiring more skilled labour, a trend also observed in certain other countries.


2003 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elna Moolman

Despite the existence of macroeconomic models and complex business cycle indicators, it would be beneficial to policymakers and market participants if they could look at one well-chosen indicator in predicting business cycle turning points. If one indicator accurately predicts business cycle turning points, it provides an easy way to confirm the predictions of macroeconomic models, or it can eliminate the need for a macroeconomic model if the interest is in the turning points and not in the levels of the business cycle. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether turning points of the South African business cycle can be predicted with only one economic indicator.


2004 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 685-701 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.A. du Plessis

2001 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 204-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashley G. Frank

This study is concerned with the South African business cycle and makes use of the hazard function to determine the importance of duration for its analysis. This function gives the conditional probability that a state sustained through a previous period will end in the current one. The study estimates this probability for both economic downturn and expansion. At the 95 per cent confidence level, there is no statistical underpinning found for conventional ideas about the likelihood of an upturn or downturn in the economy over time. The duration of a business cycle does not help predict the turning point


2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 602-623
Author(s):  
Thendo Masia ◽  
Kahilu Kajimo-Shakantu ◽  
Akintayo Opawole

PurposeGreen building is a relatively new concept with limited applications in property development in South Africa. The objectives of this study are therefore threefold: identify key green building principles considered by property developers, establish the benefits of implementing the principles and determine the barriers to its applications.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopted a case study of two Green Star South Africa (SA)-certified buildings in Sandton, Johannesburg. These are Alexander Forbes building, and Ernst & Young Eris Towers. The two certified buildings were purposefully selected because of the insightful information they provide regarding application of green building principles. The main themes investigated in the cases are environmental awareness, green building principles applications, as well as benefits and barriers of green building. A total of six interviewees from the contractors', property developers', environmental/green building consultants' and sustainability consultants' organizations who were involved in the implementation of green building principles in the two cases provided the qualitative data for the study. The qualitative data were supplemented with data relating to the two case studies obtained from the ‘Earth Works for a Sustainable Built Environment’. The interviews were arranged over a period of two months, and each interview took between 20 and 30 minutes. Analysis of the data was done through a phenomenological interpretation of the qualitative opinions expressed by the interviewees.FindingsKey green building principles comprising energy efficiency, water efficiency, resource efficiency, occupants' health and well-being and sustainable site development were implemented in the two cases. The fact that the buildings were rated 4-star enabled inference to be drawn that the implementation of the principles was less than 60 per cent. Energy efficiency of 35 per cent indicated in Case I suggests that the level is consistent with the South African green building standard of 25 per cent to 50 per cent. However, the energy and water efficiency assessment of the building were based on projections rather than on ongoing monitoring and evaluation of the buildings' performance. Moreover, perceived saving in operational cost was identified as dominant driver to green building principles implementation. Conversely, lack of government incentives and absence of reliable benchmarking data regarding performance of green buildings were major barriers to its full implementation.Practical implicationsThe findings of this study provide important implications to the developers and government on the application of green building principles. In the first place, the evidence that initial high cost premium could be off settled by long- term saving on operational costs as a result of use of local materials, energy and water savings as well as use of recycled material, as implemented in the two case projects, would improve investment decision in green building by developers. The understanding of the drivers and barriers to implementation of green building principles also has implications for guiding government policies and programmes towards green building.Originality/valueThe significance of this study stems from the fact that limited studies, especially in the South African context, have indicated the drivers and barriers to the implementation of green building principles. The case study approach adopted gave a novelty to the study by providing hands-on information from the stakeholders who were known to have played specific roles in the application of green building. The findings indicated that initial high cost premium was not a consideration in developers' choice of green building which justifies the possibility of a costlier product when factors such as environmental sustainability benefit is considered to be ultimate. The study thus suggests further research involving larger cases on energy efficiency, water efficiency and costs of green buildings compared to the conventional type to bring the findings to a broader perspective and assist to benchmark data for green building assessment.


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