scholarly journals Is the South African business cycle time dependent?

2001 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 204-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashley G. Frank
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
South African ◽  
Cycle Time ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Hazard Function ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
The South ◽  
Over Time

This study is concerned with the South African business cycle and makes use of the hazard function to determine the importance of duration for its analysis. This function gives the conditional probability that a state sustained through a previous period will end in the current one. The study estimates this probability for both economic downturn and expansion. At the 95 per cent confidence level, there is no statistical underpinning found for conventional ideas about the likelihood of an upturn or downturn in the economy over time. The duration of a business cycle does not help predict the turning point

The Earliest South African Hominids

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-143
Author(s):  
Ronald J. Clarke ◽  
Travis Rayne Pickering ◽  
Jason L. Heaton ◽  
Kathleen Kuman
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
The South ◽  
Taxonomic Assignment ◽  
First Time ◽  
Over Time

The earliest South African hominids (humans and their ancestral kin) belong to the genera Australopithecus, Paranthropus, and Homo, with the oldest being a ca. 3.67 million-year-old nearly complete skeleton of Australopithecus (StW 573) from Sterkfontein Caves. This skeleton has provided, for the first time in almost a century of research, the full anatomy of an Australopithecus individual with indisputably associated skull and postcranial bones that give complete limb lengths. The three genera are also found in East Africa, but scholars have disagreed on the taxonomic assignment for some fossils owing to historical preconceptions. Here we focus on the South African representatives to help clarify these debates. The uncovering of the StW 573 skeleton in situ revealed significant clues concerning events that had affected it over time and demonstrated that the associated stalagmite flowstones cannot provide direct dating of the fossil, as they are infillings of voids caused by postdepositional collapse.

scholarly journals WERE THERE POLITICAL ALTERNATIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHARPEVILLE-LANGA VIOLENCE IN SOUTH AFRICA, 1960?

2015 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
SAUL DUBOW
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Civil Rights ◽  
South African ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
African History ◽  
The South ◽  
Political Dynamics ◽  
Black Resistance ◽  
Liberation Movements ◽  
New Research

AbstractIn many accounts, the Sharpeville emergency of 1960 was a key ‘turning point’ for modern South African history. It persuaded the liberation movements that there was no point in civil rights-style activism and served as the catalyst for the formation of the African National Congress's armed wing, Umkhonto we Sizwe. From the South African government's perspective, the events at Sharpeville made it imperative to crush black resistance so that whites could defend themselves against communist-inspired revolutionary agitation. African and Afrikaner nationalist accounts are thus mutually invested in the idea that, after Sharpeville, there was no alternative. This article challenges such assumptions. By bringing together new research on African and Afrikaner nationalism during this period, and placing them in the same frame of analysis, it draws attention to important political dynamics and possibilities that have for too long been overlooked.

scholarly journals Combining quantitative and qualitative data in business cycle research

1986 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 143-148
Author(s):  
E. Smit
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
South African ◽  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Qualitative Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Filter Technique ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
Traditional Approaches

In this article a leading indicator of the South African business cycle is proposed which combines the traditional quantitative data inputs with qualitative data. The integration is achieved via the Kalman filter technique. It is shown that this model surpasses the traditional approaches in accuracy.

scholarly journals Contested confines: political risk and the media in South Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-154
Author(s):  
Mary-Anne Piasecki ◽  
Piet Croucamp
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
News Media ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Media Industry ◽  
The South ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Media Ownership ◽  
Additional Risk ◽  
The Media

The South African private news media industry represents a substantial portion of the overall media industry and the most successful in terms of profit acquired. It is critical however to assess the shareholders and private ownership of the news media industry in order to determine the likely success of investment in this industry. However, additional risk factors need to be considered along with the shareholders and ownership; macro factors such as, legislation and economic stability as well as micro factors such as the restructuring of ownership and transparency within the industry. It is also fundamental that the news media industry of South Africa is assessed through the lens of its historical landscape and transformation and its Fourth Estate responsibilities. Through this assessment it is possible to conclude three likely outcomes of investment in the news media industry. These outcomes are based on the measured growth and current stability of the industry and the South African economy. The most concerning risk for investment is the continued economic downturn of the South African economy and its effect on restructuring of media ownership and a declining profit. This can be coupled with the risk of legislative turnover and executive overreach within the news media industry

scholarly journals Competing Marxist Theories on the Temporal Aspects of Strike Waves: Silver’s Product Cycle Theory and Mandel’s Long Wave Theory

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eddie Cottle
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Wave Theory ◽  
Product Cycle ◽  
The South ◽  
Capitalist Development ◽  
Long Wave ◽  
Temporal Aspects

Despite the profound changes in capitalist development since the industrial revolution, strike waves and mass strikes are still a feature of the twenty-first century. This article examines two Marxist theories that seek to explain the temporal aspects of strike waves. In the main, I argue that Silver’s product cycle theory, suffers from an over-determinism, and that turning point strike waves are not mainly determined by lead industries. Mandel’s long wave theory argues that technological innovations tend to cluster and thus workers in different industries feature prominently in strike waves. By re-examining and comparing two competing Marxist theories on the temporality of strike waves and turning points, I will attempt to highlight the similarities but also place emphasis on where the theories differ. I examine the applicability of the theories to the South African case, and reference recent world events in order to ascertain the explanatory power of the competing theories. In the main I argue that Silver’s product cycle lead theory does not fit the South African experience. KEYWORDS  turning point strike waves; product cycle; long waves; capitalism

scholarly journals Predicting turning points in the South African economy

2003 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elna Moolman
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
South African ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
The South ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
The Business Cycle

Despite the existence of macroeconomic models and complex business cycle indicators, it would be beneficial to policymakers and market participants if they could look at one well-chosen indicator in predicting business cycle turning points. If one indicator accurately predicts business cycle turning points, it provides an easy way to confirm the predictions of macroeconomic models, or it can eliminate the need for a macroeconomic model if the interest is in the turning points and not in the levels of the business cycle. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether turning points of the South African business cycle can be predicted with only one economic indicator.

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