scholarly journals Predicting turning points in the South African economy

2003 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elna Moolman
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
South African ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
The South ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
The Business Cycle

Despite the existence of macroeconomic models and complex business cycle indicators, it would be beneficial to policymakers and market participants if they could look at one well-chosen indicator in predicting business cycle turning points. If one indicator accurately predicts business cycle turning points, it provides an easy way to confirm the predictions of macroeconomic models, or it can eliminate the need for a macroeconomic model if the interest is in the turning points and not in the levels of the business cycle. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether turning points of the South African business cycle can be predicted with only one economic indicator.

scholarly journals Forecasting The South African Business Cycle Using Fourier Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 175-192
Author(s):  
Daniel Thomson ◽  
Gary Van Vuuren
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fourier Transform ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Fourier Analysis ◽  
South African ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Current Position ◽  
The South ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
The Business Cycle

A Fourier transform analysis is proposed to determine the duration of the South African business cycle, measured using log changes in nominal gross domestic product (GDP). The most prominent cycle (two smaller, but significant, cycles are also present in the time series) is found to be 7.1 years, confirmed using Empirical Mode Decomposition. The three dominant cycles are used to estimate a 3.5 year forecast of log monthly nominal GDP and these forecasts compared to observed (historical) data. Promising forecast potential is found with this significantly-reduced number of cycle components than embedded in the original series. Fourier analysis is effective in estimating the length of the business cycle, as well as in determining the current position (phase) of the economy in the business cycle.

From the Business Cycle to the Output Cycle: Predicting South African Economic Activity

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-133
Author(s):  
C. Vermeulen ◽  
F. Joubert ◽  
A. Bosch ◽  
J. Rossouw
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
South African ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
The Business Cycle

scholarly journals Forecasting Macedonian Business Cycle Turning Points Using Qual Var Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 61-78
Author(s):  
Magdalena Petrovska ◽  
Aneta Krstevska ◽  
Nikola Naumovski
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract This paper aims at assessing the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable summary of the current economic conditions. We further proceed analyzing how well an extended set of indicators performs in forecasting turning points of the Macedonian business cycle by employing the Qual VAR approach of Dueker (2005). In continuation, we evaluate the quality of the selected indicators in pseudo-out-of-sample context. The results show that the use of survey-based indicators as a complement to macroeconomic data work satisfactory well in capturing the business cycle developments in Macedonia.

Collateral Shocks

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-103
Author(s):  
Yvan Becard ◽  
David Gauthier
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Lending Standards ◽  
Joint Dynamics ◽  
The Business Cycle

We estimate a macroeconomic model on US data where banks lend to households and businesses and simultaneously adjust lending requirements on the two types of loans. We find that the collateral shock, a change in the ability of the financial sector to redeploy collateral, is the most important force driving the business cycle. Hit by this unique disturbance, our model quantitatively replicates the joint dynamics of output, consumption, investment, employment, and both household and business credit quantities and spreads. The estimated collateral shock generates accurate movements in lending standards and tracks measures of market sentiment. (JEL E21, E23, E24, E32, E44, G21)

Judging the stance of the business cycle

2021 ◽  
pp. 222-240
Author(s):  
Jesper Rangvid
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Business Cycle

This chapter describes if and how we can detect business-cycle turning points. What variables should we study if we want to say something about the likelihood that the business cycle will change? The chapter discusses business-cycle ‘indicators’. It distinguishes between lagging, coincident, and leading indicators. Lagging indicators refer to economic variables that react to a change in the business cycle, i.e. variables that react after a business-cycle turning point. Coincident indicators tell us something about where we are right now in the business cycle. Leading indicators, which are probably the most important ones, tell us about the near-term outlook for the business cycle, i.e. forecast the business cycle. The chapter emphasizes that business-cycle turning points are hard to predict, but also that some indicators are more informative than others.

scholarly journals Securitisation in South Africa: 2000-2007

2008 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Moyo ◽  
C. Firer
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Credit Markets ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The South ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
The Us

This paper tracks the development of the securitisation market in South Africa since the first securitisation in 1989. It gives a chronological account of securitisation issuance activity on the Bond Exchange of South Africa and identifies factors that have led to the development of the market. It also records some of the topical issues market participants face.Listing data from the Bond Exchange of South Africa was sorted and analysed. The views of market participants were captured through interviews and by attendance of the 2007 annual securitisation conference.The results show that the South African securitisation market has grown exponentially over the last seven years. Market participants expect this market to continue to grow, but at a slower pace, given the pressure that world credit markets are under as a result of the sub-prime crisis in the US. Market participants identified the constraints to growth as being insufficient capacity of local investors to take up the paper. From a supply point of view the South African banks have substantial securitisation capacity that is still untapped.

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