Stretching the South African business cycle

2004 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 685-701 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.A. du Plessis
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
South African ◽  
The South

scholarly journals Combining quantitative and qualitative data in business cycle research

1986 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 143-148
Author(s):  
E. Smit
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
South African ◽  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Qualitative Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Filter Technique ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
Traditional Approaches

In this article a leading indicator of the South African business cycle is proposed which combines the traditional quantitative data inputs with qualitative data. The integration is achieved via the Kalman filter technique. It is shown that this model surpasses the traditional approaches in accuracy.

scholarly journals Predicting turning points in the South African economy

2003 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elna Moolman
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
South African ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
The South ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
The Business Cycle

Despite the existence of macroeconomic models and complex business cycle indicators, it would be beneficial to policymakers and market participants if they could look at one well-chosen indicator in predicting business cycle turning points. If one indicator accurately predicts business cycle turning points, it provides an easy way to confirm the predictions of macroeconomic models, or it can eliminate the need for a macroeconomic model if the interest is in the turning points and not in the levels of the business cycle. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether turning points of the South African business cycle can be predicted with only one economic indicator.

scholarly journals Is the South African business cycle time dependent?

2001 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 204-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashley G. Frank
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
South African ◽  
Cycle Time ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Hazard Function ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
The South ◽  
Over Time

This study is concerned with the South African business cycle and makes use of the hazard function to determine the importance of duration for its analysis. This function gives the conditional probability that a state sustained through a previous period will end in the current one. The study estimates this probability for both economic downturn and expansion. At the 95 per cent confidence level, there is no statistical underpinning found for conventional ideas about the likelihood of an upturn or downturn in the economy over time. The duration of a business cycle does not help predict the turning point

scholarly journals The South African business cycle: what has changed?

2011 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Burger
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
South African ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
National Account ◽  
The South ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests

This paper identifies the basic empirical characteristics and changes of the South African business cycle since 1960. As such, the paper examines changes in volatility as well as the co-movement between several national account variables and real GDP. To examine the co-movements the paper follows Kydland and Prescott, Gavin and Kydland as well as Bergman, Bordo and Jonung and uses correlation coefficients and Granger causality tests. Following Ramos, the paper extends the results of the Granger causality tests using variance decomposition analysis in the context of a VAR (vector auto regression) to establish the contribution that selected national account variables make to the h-period-ahead forecast error variance of themselves and the other variables included in the VARs. The paper indicates that since 1994 volatility in the South African economy decreased significantly, while durable consumption appears to lead the business cycle.

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