scholarly journals Density forecasting for long-term electricity demand in South Africa using quantile regression

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Mokilane ◽  
Jacky Galpin ◽  
V.S. Sarma Yadavalli ◽  
Provesh Debba ◽  
Renee Koen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Demand Distribution ◽  
The Future ◽  
Density Forecasting ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Hourly Distribution

Background: This study involves forecasting electricity demand for long-term planning purposes. Long-term forecasts for hourly electricity demands from 2006 to 2023 are done with in-sample forecasts from 2006 to 2012 and out-of-sample forecasts from 2013 to 2023. Quantile regression (QR) is used to forecast hourly electricity demand at various percentiles. Three contributions of this study are (1) that QR is used to generate long-term forecasts of the full distribution per hour of electricity demand in South Africa; (2) variabilities in the forecasts are evaluated and uncertainties around the forecasts can be assessed as the full demand distribution is forecasted and (3) probabilities of exceedance can be calculated, such as the probability of future peak demand exceeding certain levels of demand. A case study, in which forecasted electricity demands over the long-term horizon were developed using South African electricity demand data, is discussed. Aim: The aim of the study was: (1) to apply a quantile regression (QR) model to forecast hourly distribution of electricity demand in South Africa; (2) to investigate variabilities in the forecasts and evaluate uncertainties around point forecasts and (3) to determine whether the future peak electricity demands are likely to increase or decrease. Setting: The study explored the probabilistic forecasting of electricity demand in South Africa. Methods: The future hourly electricity demands were forecasted at 0.01, 0.02, 0.03, … , 0.99 quantiles of the distribution using QR, hence each hour of the day would have 99 forecasted future hourly demands, instead of forecasting just a single overall hourly demand as in the case of OLS. Results: The findings are that the future distributions of hourly demands and peak daily demands would be more likely to shift towards lower demands over the years until 2023 and that QR gives accurate long-term point forecasts with the peak demands well forecasted. Conclusion: QR gives forecasts at all percentiles of the distribution, allowing the potential variabilities in the forecasts to be evaluated by comparing the 50th percentile forecasts with the forecasts at other percentiles. Additional planning information, such as expected pattern shifts and probable peak values, could also be obtained from the forecasts produced by the QR model, while such information would not easily be obtained from other forecasting approaches. The forecasted electricity demand distribution closely matched the actual demand distribution between 2012 and 2015. Therefore, the forecasted demand distribution is expected to continue representing the actual demand distribution until 2023. Using a QR approach to obtain long-term forecasts of hourly load profile patterns is, therefore, recommended.

scholarly journals Long-term peak electricity demand forecasting in South Africa: A quantile regression averaging approach

AIMS Energy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 857-882
Author(s):  
Norman Maswanganyi ◽  
◽  
Edmore Ranganai ◽  
Caston Sigauke ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Electricity Demand Forecasting

scholarly journals Projection of Long-Term Care Costs in China, 2020–2050: Based on the Bayesian Quantile Regression Method

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 3530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaocang Xu ◽  
Linhong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Financial Burden ◽  
Severe Disabilities ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Bayesian Quantile Regression ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government ◽  
Quantile Regression Method

The aging population in China highlights the significance of elderly long-term care (LTC) services. The number of people aged 65 and above increased from 96 million in 2003 to 150 million in 2016, some of whom were disabled due to chronic diseases or the natural effects of aging on bodily functions. Therefore, the measurement of future LTC costs is of crucial value. Following the basic framework but using different empirical methods from those presented in previous literature, this paper attempts to use the Bayesian quantile regression (BQR) method, which has many advantages over traditional linear regression. Another innovation consists of setting and measuring the high, middle, and low levels of LTC cost prediction for each disability state among the elderly in 2020–2050. Our projections suggest that by 2020, LTC costs will increase to median values of 39.46, 8.98, and 20.25 billion dollars for mild, moderate, and severe disabilities, respectively; these numbers will reach 141.7, 32.28, and 72.78 billion dollars by 2050. The median level of daily life care for mild, moderate, and severe disabilities will increase to 26.23, 6.36, and 27 billion dollars. Our results showed that future LTC cost increases will be enormous, and therefore, the establishment of a reasonable individual-social-government payment mechanism is necessary for the LTC system. The future design of an LTCI system must take into account a variety of factors, including the future elderly population, different care conditions, the financial burden of the government, etc., in order to maintain the sustainable development of the LTC system.

Time-varying asymmetry and tail thickness in long series of daily financial returns

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Błażej Mazur ◽  
Mateusz Pipień
Keyword(s):  
Shape Features ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Sample Density ◽  
Tail Behaviour ◽  
Term Variation ◽  
Density Forecasting ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Time Invariant ◽  
Daily Returns

Abstract We demonstrate that analysis of long series of daily returns should take into account potential long-term variation not only in volatility, but also in parameters that describe asymmetry or tail behaviour. However, it is necessary to use a conditional distribution that is flexible enough, allowing for separate modelling of tail asymmetry and skewness, which requires going beyond the skew-t form. Empirical analysis of 60 years of S&P500 daily returns suggests evidence for tail asymmetry (but not for skewness). Moreover, tail thickness and tail asymmetry is not time-invariant. Tail asymmetry became much stronger at the beginning of the Great Moderation period and weakened after 2005, indicating important differences between the 1987 and the 2008 crashes. This is confirmed by our analysis of out-of-sample density forecasting performance (using LPS and CRPS measures) within two recursive expanding-window experiments covering the events. We also demonstrate consequences of accounting for long-term changes in shape features for risk assessment.

Efficiency and costs of different concentrated solar power plant configurations for sites in Gauteng and the Northern Cape, South Africa

2013 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Telsnig ◽  
Ludger Eltrop ◽  
Hartmut Winkler ◽  
Ulrich Fahl
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Plant Performance ◽  
Concentrated Solar Power ◽  
Demand Structure ◽  
The Future ◽  
Northern Cape ◽  
Electricity Mix

Concentrated solar power (CSP) plants can play a major role in the future South African electricity mix. Today the Independent Power Producer (IPP) Procurement Programme aims to facilitate renewable energy projects to access the South African energy market. In spite of this incentive programme, the future role of CSP plants in South Africa has yet to be defined. Using hourly irradiance data, we present a new method to calculate the expected yield of different parabolic trough plant configurations at a site in each of Gauteng and the Northern Cape, South Africa. We also provide cost estimates of the main plant components and an economic assessment that can be used to demonstrate the feasibility of solar thermal power projects at different sites. We show that the technical configurations, as well as the resulting cost of electricity, are heavily dependent on the location of the plant and how the electricity so generated satisfies demand. Today, levelised electricity costs for a CSP plant without storage were found to be between 101 and 1.52 ZAR2010/kWhel, assuming a flexible electricity demand structure. A CSP configuration with Limited Storage produces electricity at costs between 1.39 and 1.90 ZAR2010/kWhel, whereas that with Extended Storage costs between 1.86 and 2.27 ZAR2010/kWhel. We found that until 2040 a decrease in investment costs results in generating costs between 0.73 ZAR2010/kWhel for a CSP plant without storage in Upington and 1.16 ZAR2010/ kWhel for a configuration with Extended Storage in Pretoria. These costs cannot compete, however, with the actual costs of the traditional South African electricity mix. Nevertheless, a more sustainable energy system will require dispatchable power which can be offered by CSP including storage. Our results show that the choice of plant configuration and the electricity demand structure have a significant effect on costs. These results can help policymakers and utilities to benchmark plant performance as a basis for planning.

The stock-bond nexus and investors’ behavior in mature and emerging markets

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Refk Selmi ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Christos Kollias ◽  
Stephanos Papadamou
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
Quantile Regression Model ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Uk

Purpose Portfolio construction and diversification is a prominent challenge for investors. It reflects market agents’ behavior and response to market conditions. This paper aims to investigate the stock-bond nexus in the case of two emerging and two mature markets, India, South Africa, the UK and the USA, using long-term historical monthly data. Design/methodology/approach To address the issue at hand, copula quantile-on-quantile regression (C-QQR) is used to model the correlation structure. Although this technique is driven by copula-based quantile regression model, it retains more flexibility and delivers more robust and accurate estimates. Findings Results suggest that there is substantial heterogeneity in the bond-stock returns correlation across the countries under study point to different investors’ behavior in the four markets examined. Additionally, the findings reported herein suggest that using C-QQR in portfolio management can enable the formation of tailored response strategies, adapted to the needs and preferences of investors and traders. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no previous study has addressed in a comparative setting the stock-bond nexus for the four countries used here using long-term historical data that cover the periods 1920:08-2017:02, 1910:01-2017:02, 1933:01-2017:02 and 1791:09-2017:02 for India, South Africa, the UK and the USA, respectively.

Transmedia Storytelling Initiatives in Brazilian Media

MedienJournal ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Renira Rampazzo Gambarato ◽  
Geane Carvalho Alzamora
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Media Development ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Transmedia Storytelling ◽  
The Future

This paper is presented in order to understand the evolution of media dynamics in Brazil and investigate its perspectives for the future. Brazil, among the BRICS states (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), will be our focus. From a mono-mediatic paradigm to a convergent one, Brazil is developing new practices in fictional and non-fictional media. Our hypothesis is that the transmedia storytelling strategy is both the reality – although still timid – and the most probable future scenario for media development in Brazil. We can assert that transmedia storytelling is a tendency. Therefore, we will explore examples of transmedia storytelling initiatives in Brazilian media mainly related to journalism, entertainment, branding and advertisement.

‘VOICES’, MEANING AND ‘HETEROGLOSSIA’ IN PRISONERS OF HOPE (1995)

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 88-96
Author(s):  
Khatija Bibi Khan
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Documentary Film ◽  
Textual Analysis ◽  
Political Prisoners ◽  
The Future ◽  
Human Capacity ◽  
Robben Island ◽  
Former Inmates

The documentary film Prisoners of Hope (1995) is a heart-rending account of 1 250 former political prisoners in the notorious Robben Island prison in South Africa. The aim of this article is to explore the narratives of Prisoners of Hope and in the process capture its celebratory mood and reveal the contribution that the prisoners made towards the realisation of a free South Africa. The documentary features interviews with Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela, Ahmed Kathrada and other former inmates as they recall and recount the atrocities perpetrated by defenders of the apartheid system and debate the future of South Africa with its ‘new’ political dispensation led by blacks. A textual analysis of Prisoners of Hope will enable one to explore the human capacity to resist, commit oneself to a single goal and live beyond the horrors and traumas of an oppressive and dehumanising system.

DIGITALIZATION OF LABOR MIGRATION PROCESSES IN UZBEKISTAN. WORLD EXPERIENCE

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 29-39
Author(s):  
Sulkhiya Gazieva ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Technological Change ◽  
Labor Migration ◽  
Smart Phone ◽  
Logic Circuits ◽  
Digital Logic ◽  
The Internet ◽  
The Future

The future of labor market depends upon several factors, long-term innovation and the demographic developments. However, one of the main drivers of technological change in the future is digitalization and central to this development is the production and use of digital logic circuits and its derived technologies, including the computer,the smart phone and the Internet. Especially, smart automation will perhaps not cause e.g.regarding industries, occupations, skills, tasks and duties

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