2021 ◽  
Vol 56 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 635-650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingxiang Li ◽  
Wenbin Sun ◽  
Xiang Yun ◽  
Boyin Huang ◽  
Wenjie Dong ◽  
...  

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 3317-3348 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Brutel-Vuilmet ◽  
M. Ménégoz ◽  
G. Krinner

Abstract. The 20th century seasonal Northern Hemisphere land snow cover as simulated by available CMIP5 model output is compared to observations. On average, the models reproduce the observed snow cover extent very well, but the significant trend towards a~reduced spring snow cover extent over the 1979–2005 is underestimated. We show that this is linked to the simulated Northern Hemisphere extratropical land warming trend over the same period, which is underestimated, although the models, on average, correctly capture the observed global warming trend. There is a good linear correlation between hemispheric seasonal spring snow cover extent and boreal large-scale annual mean surface air temperature in the models, supported by available observations. This relationship also persists in the future and is independent of the particular anthropogenic climate forcing scenario. Similarly, the simulated linear correlation between the hemispheric seasonal spring snow cover extent and global mean annual mean surface air temperature is stable in time. However, the sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover to global mean surface air temperature changes is underestimated at present because of the underestimate of the boreal land temperature change amplification.


2017 ◽  
Vol 122 (2) ◽  
pp. 966-979 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Yue ◽  
Brian H. Kahn ◽  
Eric J. Fetzer ◽  
Sun Wong ◽  
Richard Frey ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 1511-1527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jung Choi ◽  
Seok-Woo Son ◽  
Yoo-Geun Ham ◽  
June-Yi Lee ◽  
Hye-Mi Kim

Abstract This study explores the seasonal-to-interannual near-surface air temperature (TAS) prediction skills of state-of-the-art climate models that were involved in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) decadal hindcast/forecast experiments. The experiments are initialized in either November or January of each year and integrated for up to 10 years, providing a good opportunity for filling the gap between seasonal and decadal climate predictions. The long-lead multimodel ensemble (MME) prediction is evaluated for 1981–2007 in terms of the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean-squared skill score (MSSS), which combines ACC and conditional bias, with respect to observations and reanalysis data, paying particular attention to the seasonal dependency of the global-mean and equatorial Pacific TAS predictions. The MME shows statistically significant ACCs and MSSSs for the annual global-mean TAS for up to two years, mainly because of long-term global warming trends. When the long-term trends are removed, the prediction skill is reduced. The prediction skills are generally lower in boreal winters than in other seasons regardless of lead times. This lack of winter prediction skill is attributed to the failure of capturing the long-term trend and interannual variability of TAS over high-latitude continents in the Northern Hemisphere. In contrast to global-mean TAS, regional TAS over the equatorial Pacific is predicted well in winter. This is mainly due to a successful prediction of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In most models, the wintertime ENSO index is reasonably well predicted for at least one year in advance. The sensitivity of the prediction skill to the initialized month and method is also discussed.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Lunt ◽  

<div> <div> <div>We present results from an ensemble of eight climate models, each of which has carried out simulations of theearly Eocene climate optimum (EECO, ∼50 million years ago). These simulations have been carried out in the framework of DeepMIP (www.deepmip.org), and as such all models have been configured with the same paleogeographic and vegetation boundary conditions. The results indicate that these non-CO<sub>2</sub> boundary conditions contribute between 3 and 5<sup>o</sup>C to Eocene warmth. Compared to results from previous studies, the DeepMIP simulations show in general reduced spread of global mean surface temperature response across the ensemble for a given atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration, and an increased climate sensitivity on average. An energy balance analysis of the model ensemble indicates that global mean warming in the Eocene compared with preindustrial arises mostly from decreases in emissivity due to the elevated CO<sub>2</sub> (and associated water vapour and long-wave cloud feedbacks), whereas in terms of the meridional temperature gradient, the reduction in the Eocene is primarily due to emissivity and albedo changes due to the non-CO<sub>2</sub> boundary conditions (i.e. removal of the Antarctic ice sheet and changes in vegetation). Three of the models (CESM, GFDL, and NorESM) show results that are consistent with the proxies in terms of global mean temperature, meridional SST gradient, and CO<sub>2</sub>, without prescribing changes to model parameters. In addition, many of the models agree well with the first-order spatial patterns in the SST proxies. However, at a more regional scale the models lack skill. In particular, in the southwest Pacific, the modelled anomalies are substantially less than indicated by the proxies; here, modelled continental surface air temperature anomalies are more consistent with surface air temperature proxies, implying a possible inconsistency between marine and terrestrial temperatures in either the proxiesor models in this region. Our aim is that the documentation of the large scale features and model-data comparison presented herein will pave the way to further studies that explore aspects of the model simulations in more detail, for example the ocean circulation, hydrological cycle, and modes of variability; and encourage sensitivity studies to aspects such as paleogeography, orbital configuration, and aerosols</div> </div> </div>


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Cao ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Young-Min Yang ◽  
Libin Ma ◽  
Juan Li ◽  
...  

Abstract. The Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model version 3 (NESM v3) has been developed, aiming to provide a numerical modeling platform for cross-disciplinary earth system studies, project future Earth's climate and environment changes, as well conduct subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. While the previous model version NESM v1 simulates well the internal modes of climate variability, it has no vegetation dynamics and suffers considerable radiative energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere and surface, resulting in large biases in the global mean surface air temperature, which limit its utility to simulate past and project future climate changes. The NESM v3 upgraded the atmospheric and land surface model components and improved physical parameterization and conservation of coupling variables. Here we describe the new version's basic features and how the major improvements were made. We demonstrate the v3 model's fidelity and suitability to address the global climate variability and change issues. The 500-year PI experiment shows negligible trends in the net heat flux at the top of atmosphere and the Earth surface. Consistently, the simulated global mean surface air temperature, land surface temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) are all in a quasi-equilibrium state. The conservation of global water is demonstrated by the stable evolution of the global mean precipitation, sea surface salinity (SSS) and sea water salinity. The sea ice extents (SIEs), as a major indication of high latitude climate, also maintain a balanced state. The simulated spatial patterns of the mean outgoing longwave radiation, SST, precipitation, SSS fields are realistic, but the model suffers from a cold bias in the North Atlantic, a warm bias in the Southern Ocean and associated deficient Antarctic sea ice area, as well as a delicate sign of the double ITCZ syndrome. The estimate radiative forcing of quadrupling carbon dioxide is about 7.24 W m-2, yielding a climate sensitivity feedback parameter of −0.98 W m-2 K-1, and the equilibrium climate sensitivity is 3.69 K. The transient climate response from the 1 pct/year increasing CO2 experiment is 2.16 K. The model's performance on internal modes and responses to external forcing during the historical period will be documented in an accompanying paper.


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