Halogenated Greenhouse Gases Made Global Warming Primarily

Time-series observations of global lower stratospheric temperature (GLST), global land surface air temperature (LSAT), global mean surface temperature (GMST), sea ice extent (SIE) and snow cover extent (SCE), together with observations reported in Paper I, combined with theoretical calculations of GLSTs and GMSTs, have provided strong evidence that ozone depletion and global climate changes are dominantly caused by human-made halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) respectively. Both GLST and SCE have become constant since the mid-1990s and GMST/LSAT has reached a peak since the mid-2000s, while regional continued warmings at the Arctic coasts (particularly Russia and Alaska) in winter and spring and at some areas of Antarctica are observed and can be well explained by a sea-ice-loss warming amplification mechanism. The calculated GMSTs by the parameter-free warming theory of halogenated GHGs show an excellent agreement with the observed GMSTs after the natural El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and volcanic effects are removed. These results provide a convincing mechanism of global climate change and will make profound changes in our understanding of atmospheric processes. This study also emphasizes the critical importance of continued international efforts in phasing out all anthropogenic halogenated ODSs and GHGs.

A temporally consistent 8-day 0.05° gap-free snow cover extent dataset over the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1981–2019

Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover extent (SCE) is one of the most important indicator of climate change due to its unique surface property. However, short temporal coverage, coarse spatial resolution, and different snow discrimination approach among existing continental scale SCE products hampers its detailed studies. Using the latest Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Surface Reflectance (AVHRR-SR) Climate Data Record (CDR) and several ancillary datasets, this study generated a temporally consistent 8-day 0.05° gap-free SCE covering the NH landmass for the period 1981–2019 as part of the Global LAnd Surface Satellite dataset (GLASS) product suite. The development of GLASS SCE contains five steps. First, a decision tree algorithm with multiple threshold tests was applied to distinguish snow cover (NHSCE-D) with other land cover types from daily AVHRR-SR CDR. Second, gridcells with cloud cover and invalid observations were filled by two existing daily SCE products. The gap-filled gridcells were further merged with NHSCE-D to generate combined daily SCE over the NH (NHSCE-Dc). Third, an aggregation process was used to detect the maximum SCE and minimum gaps in each 8-day periods from NHSCE-Dc. Forth, the gaps after aggregation process were further filled by the climatology of snow cover probability to generate the gap-free GLASS SCE. Fifth, the validation process was carried out to evaluate the quality of GLASS SCE. Validation results by using 562 Global Historical Climatology Network stations during 1981–2017 (r = 0.61, p < 0.05) and MOD10C2 during 2001–2019 (r = 0.97, p < 0.01) proved that the GLASS SCE product is credible in snow cover frequency monitoring. Moreover, cross-comparison between GLASS SCE and surface albedo during 1982–2018 further confirmed its values in climate changes studies. The GLASS SCE data are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5775238 (Chen et al. 2021).

Improving Snow Analyses for Hydrological Forecasting at ECCC Using Satellite-Derived Data

As part of the National Hydrological Services Transformation Initiative, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) designed and implemented the National Surface and River Prediction System (NSRPS) in order to provide surface and river flow analysis and forecast products across Canada. Within NSRPS, the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS) produces snow analyses that are used to initialise the land surface model, which in turn is used to force the river routing component. Originally, CaLDAS was designed to improve atmospheric forecasts with less focus on hydrological processes. When snow data assimilation occurs, the related increments remove/add water from/to the system, which can sometimes be problematic for streamflow forecasting, in particular during the snowmelt period. In this study, a new snow analysis method introduces multiple innovations that respond to the need for higher quality snow analyses for hydrological purposes, including the use of IMS snow cover extent data instead of in situ snow depth observations. The results show that the new snow assimilation methodology brings an overall improvement to snow analyses and substantially enhances water conservation, which is reflected in the generally improved streamflow simulations. This work represents a first step towards a new snow data assimilation process in CaLDAS, with the final objective of producing a reliable snow analysis to initialise and improve NWP as well as environmental predictions, including flood and drought forecasts.

Contribution of Changes in Snow Cover Extent to Shortwave Radiation Perturbations at the Top of the Atmosphere over the Northern Hemisphere during 2000–2019

Snow-induced radiative forcing (SnRF), defined as the instantaneous perturbation of the Earth’s shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), results from variations in the terrestrial snow cover extent (SCE), and is critical for the regulation of the Earth’s energy budget. However, with the growing seasonal divergence of SCE over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in the past two decades, novel insights pertaining to SnRF are lacking. Consequently, the contribution of SnRF to TOA shortwave radiation anomalies still remains unclear. Utilizing the latest datasets of snow cover, surface albedo, and albedo radiative kernels, this study investigated the distribution of SnRF over the NH and explored its changes from 2000 to 2019. The 20-year averaged annual mean SnRF in the NH was −1.13 ± 0.05 W m−2, with a weakening trend of 0.0047 Wm−2 yr−1 (p < 0.01) during 2000–2019, indicating that an extra 0.094 W m−2 of shortwave radiation was absorbed by the Earth climate system. Moreover, changes in SnRF were highly correlated with satellite-observed TOA shortwave flux anomalies (r = 0.79, p < 0.05) during 2000–2019. Additionally, a detailed contribution analysis revealed that the SnRF in snow accumulation months, from March to May, accounted for 58.10% of the annual mean SnRF variability across the NH. These results can assist in providing a better understanding of the role of snow cover in Earth’s climate system in the context of climate change. Although the rapid SCE decline over the NH has a hiatus for the period during 2000–2019, SnRF continues to follow a weakening trend. Therefore, this should be taken into consideration in current climate change models and future climate projections.

Development and validation of a new MODIS snow-cover-extent product over China

Based on the MOD09GA/MYD09GA 500-m surface reflectance, a new MODIS snow-cover-extent (SCE) product over China has been produced by the Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources (NIEER), Chinese Academy of Sciences. The NIEER MODIS SCE product contains two preliminary clear-sky SCE datasets — Terra-MODIS and Aqua-MODIS SCE datasets, and a final daily cloud-gap-filled (CGF) SCE dataset. The formers are generated mainly through optimizing snow-cover discriminating rules over different land-cover types, and the latter is produced after a series of gap-filling processes such as aggregating the two preliminary datasets, reducing cloud gaps with adjacent information in space and time, and eliminating all gaps with auxiliary data. Validation against 362 China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations shows during snow seasons the overall accuracies (OA) of the three datasets are all larger than 93 %, the omission errors (OE) are all constrained within 9 %, and the commission errors (CE) are all constrained within 10 %. Biases ranging from the lowest 0.98 to the medium 1.02, to the largest 1.03 demonstrate on a whole the SCEs given by the new product are neither overestimated nor underestimated significantly. Based on the same ground reference data, we found the new product’s accuracies are clearly higher than those of standard MODIS snow products, especially for Aqua-MODIS and CGF SCE. For examples, compared with the CE of 23.78 % that the standard MYD10A1 product shows, the CE of the new Aqua-MODIS SCE dataset is 6.78 %; the OA of the new CGF SCE dataset is up to 93.15 %, versus 89.54 % of the standard MOD10A1F product and 84.36 % of the standard MYD10A1F product. Besides, as expected snow discrimination in forest areas is also improved significantly. An isolated validation at four forest CMA stations demonstrates the OA has increased by 3–10 percentage points, the OE has dropped by 1–8 percentage points, and the CE has dropped by 4–21 percentage points. Therefore, our product has virtually provided more reliable snow knowledge over China, and thereby can better serve for hydrological, climatic, environmental, and other related studies there.

Climate change in the High Mountain Asia in CMIP6

Climate change over High Mountain Asia (HMA, including the Tibetan Plateau) is investigated over the period 1979–2014 and in future projections following the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The skill of 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models is estimated for near-surface air temperature, snow cover extent and total precipitation, and 10 of them are used to describe their projections until 2100. Similarly to previous CMIP models, this new generation of general circulation models (GCMs) shows a mean cold bias over this area reaching −1.9 [−8.2 to 2.9] ∘C (90 % confidence interval) in comparison with the Climate Research Unit (CRU) observational dataset, associated with a snow cover mean overestimation of 12 % [−13 % to 43 %], corresponding to a relative bias of 52 % [−53 % to 183 %] in comparison with the NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) satellite dataset. The temperature and snow cover model biases are more pronounced in winter. Simulated precipitation rates are overestimated by 1.5 [0.3 to 2.9] mm d−1, corresponding to a relative bias of 143 % [31 % to 281 %], but this might be an apparent bias caused by the undercatch of solid precipitation in the APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources) observational reference. For most models, the cold surface bias is associated with an overestimation of snow cover extent, but this relationship does not hold for all models, suggesting that the processes of the origin of the biases can differ from one model to another. A significant correlation between snow cover bias and surface elevation is found, and to a lesser extent between temperature bias and surface elevation, highlighting the model weaknesses at high elevation. The models with the best performance for temperature are not necessarily the most skillful for the other variables, and there is no clear relationship between model resolution and model skill. This highlights the need for a better understanding of the physical processes driving the climate in this complex topographic area, as well as for further parameterization developments adapted to such areas. A dependency of the simulated past trends on the model biases is found for some variables and seasons; however, some highly biased models fall within the range of observed trends, suggesting that model bias is not a robust criterion to discard models in trend analysis. The HMA median warming simulated over 2081–2100 with respect to 1995–2014 ranges from 1.9 [1.2 to 2.7] ∘C for SSP1-2.6 to 6.5 [4.9 to 9.0] ∘C for SSP5-8.5. This general warming is associated with a relative median snow cover extent decrease from −9.4 % [−16.4 % to −5.0 %] to −32.2 % [−49.1 % to −25.0 %] and a relative median precipitation increase from 8.5 % [4.8 % to 18.2 %] to 24.9 % [14.4 % to 48.1 %] by the end of the century in these respective scenarios. The warming is 11 % higher over HMA than over the other Northern Hemisphere continental surfaces, excluding the Arctic area. Seasonal temperature, snow cover and precipitation changes over HMA show a linear relationship with the global surface air temperature (GSAT), except for summer snow cover which shows a slower decrease at strong levels of GSAT.

The NIEER AVHRR snow cover extent product over China – a long-term daily snow record for regional climate research

A long-term Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) snow cover extent (SCE) product from 1981 until 2019 over China has been generated by the snow research team in the Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources (NIEER), Chinese Academy of Sciences. The NIEER AVHRR SCE product has a spatial resolution of 5 km and a daily temporal resolution, and it is a completely gap-free product, which is produced through a series of processes such as the quality control, cloud detection, snow discrimination, and gap-filling (GF). A comprehensive validation with reference to ground snow-depth measurements during snow seasons in China revealed the overall accuracy is 87.4 %, the producer's accuracy was 81.0 %, the user's accuracy was 81.3 %, and the Cohen's kappa (CK) value was 0.717. Another validation with reference to higher-resolution snow maps derived from Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) images demonstrates an overall accuracy of 87.3 %, a producer's accuracy of 86.7 %, a user's accuracy of 95.7 %, and a Cohen's kappa value of 0.695. These accuracies were significantly higher than those of currently existing AVHRR products. For example, compared with the well-known JASMES AVHRR product, the overall accuracy increased approximately 15 %, the omission error dropped from 60.8 % to 19.7 %, the commission error dropped from 31.9 % to 21.3 %, and the CK value increased by more than 114 %. The new AVHRR product is already available at https://doi.org/10.11888/Snow.tpdc.271381 (Hao et al., 2021).

Spatiotemporal Variations in Snow Cover and Hydrological Effects in the Upstream Region of the Shule River Catchment, Northwestern China

Precipitation and snow/ice melt water are the primary water sources in inland river basins in arid areas, and these are sensitive to global climate change. A dataset of snow cover in the upstream region of the Shule River catchment was established using MOD10A2 data from 2000 to 2019, and the spatiotemporal variations in the snow cover and its meteorological, runoff, and topographic impacts were analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution of the snow cover is highly uneven owing to altitude differences. The snow cover in spring and autumn is mainly concentrated along the edges of the region, whereas that in winter and summer is mainly distributed in the south. Notable differences in snow accumulation and melting are observed at different altitudes, and the annual variation in the snow cover extent shows bimodal characteristics. The correlation between the snow cover extent and runoff is most significant in April. The snow cover effectively replenishes the runoff at higher altitudes (3300–4900 m), but this contribution weakens with increasing altitude (>4900 m). The regions with a high snow cover frequency are mostly concentrated at high altitudes. Regions with slopes of <30° show a strong correlation with the snow cover frequency, which decreases for slopes of >45°. The snow cover frequency and slope aspect show symmetrical changes.