Price Elasticity of Water Demand in a Small College Town: An Inclusion of System Dynamics Approach for Water Demand Forecast

The relationship between water demand and pricing using the price elasticity of water demand in the City of Pullman, Washington, between 2000 and 2006 shows that the current amount of water depletion is not sustainable. Three different economic scenarios were developed by altering variables in regression equations to investigate the influence of individual variables on estimating the final price elasticity of water demand. Single-family households, total residential households, and total population water use of the City of Pullman, Washington were the three different economic scenarios developed for calculating the price elasticity of water demand. The regression results show that the price elasticity of marginal price is inelastic. The exponents for median household income, fixed price, and precipitation had the expected signs in all applied scenarios. An economic model based on the regression equation of price elasticity was developed using a systems dynamic approach. The economic model projected a decline in water demand when the independent variables were assumed to grow linearly over the coming 25 years. When the household size with higher elasticity values was excluded from the regression equation, the developed economic model was able to forecast reasonable water demand. The time series data with exact service connections are recommended to reduce the uncertainty in the computation of the price elasticity of water demand. Further sensitivity analysis is recommended to understand interrelationship of water demand and pricing from the developed economic model using system dynamics approach.

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ANALISIS PENGARUH INVESTASI SWASTA , PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH, DAN PENDUDUK TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI KOTA BITUNG

JURNAL PEMBANGUNAN EKONOMI DAN KEUANGAN DAERAH ◽

10.35794/jpekd.15773.19.1.2017 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Yandiles Weya ◽

Vecky A.J. Masinambow ◽

Rosalina A.M. Koleangan

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Economic Activity ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Private Investment ◽

Least Square ◽

Series Data ◽

Ordinary Least Square ◽

North Sulawesi ◽

The City

ANALISIS PENGARUH INVESTASI SWASTA , PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH, DAN PENDUDUK TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI KOTA BITUNG Yandiles Weya, Vecky A.J. Masinambow, Rosalina A.M. Koleangan. Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Magister Ilmu EkonomiUniversitas Sam Ratulangi, Manado ABSTRAKPada suatu periode perekonomian mengalami pertumbuhan negatif berarti kegiatan ekonomi pada periode tersebut mengalami penurunan. Kota Bitung periode tahun 2004-2014 mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi yang fluktuasi. Adanya fluktuasi ini dapat dipengaruhi oleh investasi swasta, belanja langsung, dan penduduk Pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan salah satu tolok ukur keberhasilan pembangunan ekonomi di suatu daerah. Pertumbuhan ekonomi mencerminkan kegiatan ekonomi. Pertumbuhan ekonomi dapat bernilai positif dan dapat pula bernilai negatif. Jika pada suatu periode perekonomian mengalami pertumbuhan positif berarti kegiatan ekonomi pada periode tersebut mengalami peningkatan. Sedangkan jikaTahun 2004-2014 yang bersumber dari Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Sulut dan Kota Bitung. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah model ekonometrik regresi berganda double-log (log-log) dengan metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah perkembangan investasi swasta, belanja langsung, dan penduduk berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Kota Bitung. Data yang dipakai menggunakan data time series periodeHasil regresi model pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan persamaan regresinya yaitu LPDRB = - 4,445 + 0.036 LINV + 0.049 LBL + 2,229 LPOP. Dari hasil tersebutmenunjukkan perkembangan investasi swasta, belanja langsung dan penduduk berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Kota Bitung.Kata Kunci :pertumbuhan ekonomi, belanja langsung, penduduk, regresi bergandaABSTRACT The economy experienced a period of negative growth means economic activity in this period has decreased. Bitung-year period 2004-2014 economic growth fluctuations. These fluctuations can be influenced by private investment, direct spending, and population Economic growth is one measure of the success of economic development in an area. Economic growth reflects economic activity. Economic growth can be positive and can also be negative. If the economy experienced a period of positive growth means economic activity during the period has increased. Whereas if years 2004-2014 are sourced from the Central Statistics Agency of North Sulawesi Province and Bitung. The analytical method used is an econometric model double-log regression (log-log) with Ordinary Least Square (OLS). This study aims to determine whether the development of private investment, direct spending, and population affect the economic growth of the city of Bitung. The data used using time series data period. The results of the regression model of economic growth with the regression equation is LPDRB = - LINV 4.445 + 0.036 + 0.049 + 2.229 LPOP LBL. From these results show the development of private investment, direct expenditure and population positive and significant impact on economic growth of Bitung.Keywords: Economic growth, direct spending, population, regression.

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Urban Railway Demand Forecast using Time Series Data

The Korean Data Analysis Society ◽

10.37727/jkdas.2020.22.2.753 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 22 (2) ◽

pp. 753-765

Author(s):

Dong-Kyu Kim

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Demand Forecast

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Sur l’estimation des équations de CANDIDE-R

L Actualité économique ◽

10.7202/800650ar ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 51 (4) ◽

pp. 626-633

Author(s):

Alban D’Amours

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Cross Sections ◽

Economic Model ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Necessary Condition ◽

Regional Data ◽

Regional Models ◽

The Core ◽

Error Components Models

Abstract CANDIDE-R is a huge simultaneous macro-economic model which raises estimations difficulties. We avoid the problem of identification assuming that the great number of variables in our model makes it impossible that the necessary condition be not satisfied. We assume that our system converges to a solution solving this way the problem of identification. The core of the paper gives justifications of the procedure we adopted to estimate CANDIDE-R. Because of the presence of regional equations and the limited amount of regional data, we are bound to pool cross sections and time series data. We then justified the use of Zellner's approach instead of the error components models within the class of regional models built on national premises.

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HINTERLAND MEDAN CITY BETWEEN BINJAI CITY: A GRAVITATION APPROACH

Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan ◽

10.22219/jep.v17i1.8745 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 17 (1) ◽

pp. 94

Author(s):

Muhammad Nasir

Keyword(s):

Confidence Level ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Impulse Response Function ◽

Unit Root Test ◽

Gravity Models ◽

Series Data ◽

Causality Test ◽

Integration Test ◽

Relationship Of ◽

The City

Regional economy explains that there is an urban hierarchical relationship, cities that have higher hierarchy will serve cities that are below it as well as cities that are in hierarchy under supplying cities that are in the hierarchy above them, so there is a gravitational relationship between the two. This study aims to determine the gravitational relationship of Medan city to the hinterland of the city of Binjai. Furthermore, this study also wants to explain its influence on economic growth in both cities. This study uses time series data from 1990-2016, taken from North Sumatera BPS test equipment and analysis tools used are descriptive statistics, gravity models, unit root test, co-integration test, optimal lag, VECM, granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition. The results showed that the city of Medan has a gravity style greater than the gravitational style of the city of Binjai. This is because the city of Medan has a larger area, population, income per capita compared to the city of Binjai. The VECM estimation results show that the gravitational variable in the city of Binjai in lag -1 and lag-2 has a positive and significant effect on the economy of Medan city with a confidence level of 95%. Then the economic variable of the city of Binjai itself in lag-1, the population of the city of Medan in lag-2 and the gravity of the city of Medan in lag-2 had a positive and significant effect on the economy of Binjai city with a confidence level of 95%. While the variable population of Binjai city in lag -1 and residents of the city of Medan in lag -1 negatively affected the economy of Binjai city with a confidence level of 95%.

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The Influence of Government Expenditure in Education and Health Sector on The Poverty in Gorontalo

Jambura Equilibrium Journal ◽

10.37479/jej.v1i2.4380 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Windiyawati M Niuwa ◽

Fahrudin Zain Olilingo ◽

Ivan Rahmat Santoso

Keyword(s):

Quantitative Methods ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Government Expenditure ◽

Health Sector ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Education Sector ◽

Series Data ◽

Regression Equations ◽

Fiscal Balance ◽

The Government

This study aims to determine how much influence the Government Expenditure of Education Sector and Health Sector on Poverty in Gorontalo City. This research uses quantitative methods. The data used in this study are secondary data sourced from the Central Statistics Agency and the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance Ministry of Finance using the econometrics method through multiple linear regression equations in the form of 10-year time series data (2008-2017). The results showed that 1) Education sector government expenditure has a positive effect on the level of poverty in Gorontalo City 2) Government health sector expenditure has a negative effect on poverty levels in Gorontalo City. Keywords: Poverty, Government Expenditure, Education Sector, Health Sector.

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Water Demand Management Based on Water Consumption Data Analysis in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi

Water ◽

10.3390/w13202827 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (20) ◽

pp. 2827

Author(s):

Shayma Albannay ◽

Shinobu Kazama ◽

Kumiko Oguma ◽

Takashi Hashimoto ◽

Satoshi Takizawa

Keyword(s):

United Arab Emirates ◽

Water Consumption ◽

Water Demand ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Demand Management ◽

Water Saving ◽

Abu Dhabi ◽

Series Data ◽

Water Demand Management ◽

Consumption Data

In Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the population and water demand have nearly tripled in the last two decades. Thus, it has become critical to curtail the growing water demand. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of Abu Dhabi’s residential water demand management through the installation of water-saving fittings. The analysis of water consumption time-series data revealed that water consumption of the three water user categories was significantly different. Briefly: water-tariff exempt users consumed 95.19 m3/d/connection in 2019, followed by nationals with 5.14 m3/d/connection, and expats at 0.7 m3/d/connection. Nationals began saving water in 2011, which was earlier than the water tariff revision of 2015. In a newly developed area of Khalifa City, the water consumption of new residents was 46.0% less than that of old residents, indicating the effectiveness of water-saving fittings installed in new homes following the Housing Rules’ requirements. Then, based on the estimated number of new connections and the fittings’ saving efficiencies, we estimated that water-saving fittings contributed to 73.1% of the water savings since 2011. These results strongly recommend the introduction of an incentive or subsidy for owners of old houses to replace their outdated fittings with water-saving ones.

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Terrorism and Wine Tourism: The Case of Museum Attendance

Journal of Wine Economics ◽

10.1017/jwe.2018.41 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 375-383 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Olivier Gergaud ◽

Florine Livat ◽

Haiyan Song

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Terrorist Attacks ◽

Series Data ◽

Regression Estimation ◽

Sample Period ◽

Wine Tourism ◽

The Impact ◽

The City ◽

Jel Classifications

AbstractIn this article, we use attendance data from La Cité du Vin, a wine museum in the city of Bordeaux, to assess the impact of the recent wave of terror that affected France on wine tourism. We use recent count regression estimation techniques suited for time series data to build a prediction model of the demand for attendance at this museum. We conclude that the institution lost about 5,000 visitors over 426 days, during which 14 successive terrorist attacks took place. This corresponds to almost 1% of the total number of visitors in the sample period. (JEL Classifications: L83, Z30)

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Research on the Residents Milk Consumption Demand Forecast of Rural Residents Based on Linear Model

Advanced Materials Research ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.403-408.290 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 403-408 ◽

pp. 290-294

Author(s):

Wei Fang ◽

Weijun Lin ◽

Jun Fen Liang ◽

Ye Lu Zheng

Keyword(s):

Linear Model ◽

Milk Production ◽

Rural Areas ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Milk Consumption ◽

Net Income ◽

Demand Forecast ◽

Rural Residents ◽

Five Factors

In this study, milk consumption of rural residents in Guangdong Province as the study sample, using time series data, using five factors for the explanatory variables：farmer’s net income, per consumption expenditure, milk production, fertility, urbanization level residents. Then, constructed Consumption Forecast linear model, predicted milk consumption data. The results showed that milk consumption in rural areas of the Linear Model has good applicability, and the prediction of future milk production in Guangdong have important macro guide.

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