Abstract. Maud Rise polynyas (MRPs) form due to deep convection, which is caused by static instabilities
of the water column. Recent studies with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) have
indicated that a multidecadal varying heat accumulation in the subsurface layer occurs prior
to MRP formation due to the heat transport over the Weddell Gyre. In this study, a conceptual
MRP box model, forced with CESM data, is used to investigate the role of this
subsurface heat accumulation in MRP formation. Cases excluding and including multidecadal
varying subsurface heat and salt fluxes are considered, and multiple polynya events are only simulated
in the cases where subsurface fluxes are included. The dominant frequency for MRP
events in these results, approximately the frequency of the subsurface heat and salt
accumulation, is still visible in cases where white noise is added to the freshwater flux. This
indicates the importance and dominance of the subsurface heat accumulation in MRP
formation.