Global warming in the twenty-first century: an issue for Less Developed Countries (1990)

2013 ◽  
pp. 48-55
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
First Century ◽  
Less Developed Countries ◽  
Twenty First Century

Regional Variations in Potential Plant Habitat Changes in Response to Multiple Global Warming Scenarios*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (7) ◽  
pp. 2884-2899 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chang-Eui Park ◽  
Su-Jong Jeong ◽  
Chang-Hoi Ho ◽  
Jinwon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ◽  
Habitat Changes ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Plant Habitat

Abstract This study examines the impacts of global warming on the timing of plant habitat changes in the twenty-first century using climate scenarios from multiple global climate models (GCMs). The plant habitat changes are predicted by driving the bioclimate rule in a dynamic global vegetation model using the climate projections from 16 coupled GCMs. The timing of plant habitat changes is estimated by the first occurrence of specified fractional changes (10%, 20%, and 30%). All future projections are categorized into three groups by the magnitude of the projected global-mean land surface temperature changes: low (<2.5 K), medium (2.5–3.5 K), and high (>3.5 K) warming. During the course of the twenty-first century, dominant plant habitat changes are projected in ecologically transitional (i.e., from tropical to temperate and temperate to boreal) regions. The timing of plant habitat changes varies substantially according to regions. In the low-warming group, habitat changes of 10% in southern Africa occur in 2028, earlier than in the Americas by more than 70 yr. Differences in the timing between regions increase with the increase in warming and fractional threshold. In the subtropics, fast plant habitat changes are projected for the Asia and Africa regions, where countries of relatively small gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are concentrated. Ecosystems in these regions will be more vulnerable to global warming, because countries of low economic power lack the capability to deal with the warming-induced habitat changes. Thus, it is important to establish international collaboration via which developed countries provide assistance to mitigate the impacts of global warming.

Systemic Leadership and Energy: The Argument

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
William R. Thompson ◽  
Leila Zakhirova
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Single Case ◽  
World Politics ◽  
First Century ◽  
Industrial Economy ◽  
Interactive Model ◽  
Agrarian Economy ◽  
Historical Processes ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Significant Factors

This chapter introduces the issue of how systemic leadership and energy are intertwined. One compound question is: How did we shift from a primarily agrarian economy to a primarily industrial economy, and how did this shift shape world politics? We develop an interactive model of the significant factors involved in this change, not all of which necessarily had an equal impact in each single case. A second set of questions involve the linkages between the systemic leadership that emerged from these historical processes and the global warming crisis of the twenty-first century. How is systemic leadership linked to the crisis in the first place? What is systemic leadership’s likely role in responding to the crisis?

Remobilization of southern African desert dune systems by twenty-first century global warming

Nature ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 435 (7046) ◽  
pp. 1218-1221 ◽  
Author(s):  
David S. G. Thomas ◽  
Melanie Knight ◽  
Giles F. S. Wiggs
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
First Century ◽  
Dune Systems ◽  
Twenty First Century

scholarly journals Inequalities in cancer incidence and mortality across medium to highly developed countries in the twenty-first century

2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
pp. 999-1007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melina Arnold ◽  
Elisenda Rentería ◽  
David I. Conway ◽  
Freddie Bray ◽  
Tom Van Ourti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
First Century ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Twenty First Century

scholarly journals When could global warming reach 4°C?

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1934) ◽  
pp. 67-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard A. Betts ◽  
Matthew Collins ◽  
Deborah L. Hemming ◽  
Chris D. Jones ◽  
Jason A. Lowe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Emissions Scenario

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-first century in the absence of mitigation. The centre of the range of AR4-projected global warming was approximately 4°C. The higher end of the projected warming was associated with the higher emissions scenarios and models, which included stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks. The highest emissions scenario considered in the AR4 (scenario A1FI) was not examined with complex general circulation models (GCMs) in the AR4, and similarly the uncertainties in climate–carbon-cycle feedbacks were not included in the main set of GCMs. Consequently, the projections of warming for A1FI and/or with different strengths of carbon-cycle feedbacks are often not included in a wider discussion of the AR4 conclusions. While it is still too early to say whether any particular scenario is being tracked by current emissions, A1FI is considered to be as plausible as other non-mitigation scenarios and cannot be ruled out. (A1FI is a part of the A1 family of scenarios, with ‘FI’ standing for ‘fossil intensive’. This is sometimes erroneously written as A1F1, with number 1 instead of letter I.) This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks for the climate-change projections. Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including uncertainties in carbon-cycle feedbacks, and also comparing against other model projections from the IPCC, our best estimate is that the A1FI emissions scenario would lead to a warming of 4°C relative to pre-industrial during the 2070s. If carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger, which appears less likely but still credible, then 4°C warming could be reached by the early 2060s in projections that are consistent with the IPCC’s ‘likely range’.

scholarly journals Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario

2000 ◽  
Vol 97 (18) ◽  
pp. 9875-9880 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Hansen ◽  
M. Sato ◽  
R. Ruedy ◽  
A. Lacis ◽  
V. Oinas
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
First Century ◽  
Alternative Scenario ◽  
Twenty First Century

Responses of dune activity and desertification in China to global warming in the twenty-first century

2009 ◽  
Vol 67 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 167-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xunming Wang ◽  
Yi Yang ◽  
Zhibao Dong ◽  
Caixia Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
First Century ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Dune Activity

The future decline in lake levels puts an evolutionary giant at risk

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Prange ◽  
Sri Nandini-Weiss ◽  
Thomas Wilke ◽  
Frank Wesselingh
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
First Century ◽  
Lake Levels ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
The World ◽  
Twenty First Century

<p>Continental drying in response to global warming will entail declining lake levels all over the world. Falling lake levels will have many far-reaching consequences that are underappreciated, but affect the livelihoods and economies of millions of people. A massive warning signal is the projected twenty-first century water level drop of up to 18 m in high emissions scenarios for the Caspian Sea, the largest lake in the world, which could hit stakeholders unprepared. Such a catastrophic drop in the Caspian Sea level would lead to a surface area decrease of 34% including the loss of the highly productive northern Caspian shelf and important wetlands such as the Volga Delta and other Ramsar sites. The disappearance of the vast shallow shelves, which are major food suppliers for fish and birds, will devastate native and endemic fish species, the Caspian seal and a richness of molluscs and crustacean species unique to the lake. The falling water level will not only threaten the unique ecosystem, but will also have severe impacts on regional economies and geopolitical stability.</p><p>In the first part of this presentation, we discuss the extent of twenty-first century projected continental drying on a global scale and its potential effect on worldwide lake levels. In the second part, we focus on the Caspian Sea and discuss the potential impacts of water level fall on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Finally, we address the question to which extent paleoclimates can be used as analogs for future global warming scenarios with respect to changes in the Caspian Sea level.</p>

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