The rise of China, power transition, and international order in Asia: a new Cold War?

2013 ◽  
pp. 28-47
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
International Order ◽  
Power Transition ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
The Rise Of China

scholarly journals Future of US-China Relations: Conflict, Competition or Cooperation?

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Syed Muhammad Saad Zaidi ◽  
Adam Saud
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
International Relations ◽  
The United States ◽  
Great Powers ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
Eastern Hemisphere ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
The Rise Of China

In contemporary times, the geo-political agenda and geo-economic strategy of the world is being dominated by the ongoing US-China hegemonic competition. Where the United States is trying to prolong the ‘unipolar moment’ and deter the rise of China; China is trying to establish itself as the hegemon in the Eastern hemisphere, an alternate to the US. The entirely opposite interests of the two Great Powers have initiated a hostile confrontational competition for domination. This paper seeks to determine the future nature of the US-China relations; will history repeat itself and a bloody war be fought to determine the leader of the pack? or another prolonged Cold War will be fought, which will end when one side significantly weakens and collapses? Both dominant paradigms of International Relations, Realism and Liberalism, are used to analyze the future nature of the US-China relations.

scholarly journals The Distribution of Identity and the Future of International Order: China’s Hegemonic Prospects

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bentley Allan ◽  
Srdjan Vucetic ◽  
Ted Hopf
Keyword(s):  
International Order ◽  
Great Powers ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Material Power ◽  
Hegemonic Transition ◽  
The Rise Of China

Existing theories predict that the rise of China will trigger a hegemonic transition and the current debate centers on whether or not the transition will be violent or peaceful. This debate largely sidesteps two questions that are central to understanding the future of international order: how strong is the current Western hegemonic order and what is the likelihood that China can or will lead a successful counter-hegemonic challenge? We argue that the future of international order is shaped not only by material power but also by the distribution of identity across the great powers. We develop a constructivist account of hegemonic transition that theorizes the role of the distribution of identity in international order. In our account, hegemonic orders depend on a legitimating ideology that must be consistent with the distribution of identity at both the level of elites and masses. We map the distribution of identity across nine great powers and assess how this distribution supports the current Western neoliberal democratic hegemony. We conclude that China is unlikely to become the hegemon in the near-term. First, the present order is strongly supported by the distribution of identity in both Western states and rising powers like India and Brazil. Second, China is unlikely to join the present order and lead a transition from within because its authoritarian identity conflicts with the democratic ideology of the present order. Finally, China is unlikely to lead a counter-hegemonic coalition of great powers because it will be difficult to build an appealing, universal ideology consistent with the identities of other great powers.

scholarly journals THE DECLINING HEGEMONY OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF CHINA: A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE ON POWER TRANSITION THEORY IN THE 21ST CENTURY

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (18) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nasa'i Muhammad Gwadabe
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Relations ◽  
21St Century ◽  
International System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transition Theory ◽  
Power Transition ◽  
Power Transition Theory ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
The Rise Of China

The apparent eroding in the hegemonic power of the United States and the sustained growth of China has triggered debate as to whether the rise of China will be peaceful or conflictual. Structural realism posits that the world is characterised by the anarchic ordering principle in which there is no central authority sitting above the states. Therefore, the absence of a “leviathan” on the international system automatically makes every state equal on the system which created an atmosphere of competition for the maximisation of power for survival. On a similar line of reasoning, the Power Transition theory as a variant theory within realism postulates that when the international system is structured based on the principle of hierarchy, peace will reign. It means that when international relations are regulated and influenced by a dominant power, the international system becomes stable. But the emergence of a dissatisfied powerful nation to challenge the hegemon usually ends up in war. Based on this assumption, Power Transition theorists argued that the rise of China to rival the dominance of the United States could not be peaceful. The Power Transition theory has influenced many academics to have the belief that the two nations will end up in “Thucydides’ Trap”. This belief has aggravated the matter beyond the reasonable level and has instilled panic in the mind of foreign policymakers which could jeopardise world peace and international cooperation. Hence, this paper aims to critically evaluate the deficiency of the Power Transition theory in the 21st century in explaining the current United States-China relations and the prospect of peace or war between the two nations using process tracing. Accordingly, in this paper, it is argued that in the 21st century, an armed confrontation between the United States and China is highly unlikely. Because in today’s world, nations (including the United States and China) are intertwined by the forces of globalisation which created inexorable economic interdependence. Additionally, there is rapid advancement in military technology and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction which came with the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Consequently, there is a need to revisit the Power Transition theory to accommodate contemporary factors. The inclusion of the current variables into the Theory will make it applicable and adequately fit in the discourse of international relations and global politics of the 21st-century international system.

Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China

2003 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 269-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas Lemke ◽  
Ronald L. Tammen
Keyword(s):  
Transition Theory ◽  
Power Transition ◽  
Power Transition Theory ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
The Rise Of China

Conditional Convergence and the Rise of China: A Political Economy Approach to Understanding Global Power Transitions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Beckley
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Power Transition ◽  
Conditional Convergence ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Global Power ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Rich Countries ◽  
The Rise Of China

Abstract Many scholars predict that China will soon challenge the United States for global primacy. This prediction is largely based on power transition theory, which assumes that rising challengers inevitably “converge” economically and militarily with reigning hegemons. Economists, however, have shown that convergence is a conditional process: sometimes poor countries grow faster than rich countries, but sometimes they fall further behind. Determining whether a US-China power transition will occur in the years ahead, therefore, requires specifying the drivers of long-term economic growth and assessing each country's growth prospects in light of these factors. This article does exactly that. Drawing on recent research in economics, I show that there are three main growth drivers—geography, institutions, and demography—and that the United States scores highly across these factors whereas China suffers from critical weaknesses. These results suggest that a US-China power transition is unlikely.

scholarly journals An Accommodative Security Architecture in the Asia-Pacific

2015 ◽  
Vol 01 (02) ◽  
pp. 247-264
Author(s):  
Chunsi Wu
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Security Architecture ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Cold War Era ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
The Rise Of China ◽  
Diverse Cultures

In the Asia-Pacific geopolitical dynamics, China's rise and its accompanying "assertive" diplomacy are often cited by some studies as the cause of security concerns. The author argues that this interpretation of the Asia-Pacific security situation is wrong. The Asia-Pacific confronts various and complex security problems, which cannot be simply attributed to the rise of China. The occurrence and activation of so many security problems in the Asia-Pacific only indicate that the security architecture in the region is undergoing a profound transition. The old security architecture inherited from the Cold War era cannot effectively handle the security problems in the region any more. The Asia-Pacific needs a new architecture adaptive to the features of the post-Cold War era. The new security architecture should embody the spirit of cooperation and reflect Asian countries' interests and ways of handling regional affairs. More importantly, the new security architecture should feature ample accommodativeness, not only including the diverse cultures and paths of development of the region, but also encouraging and incentivizing all parties of the region to learn from each other so as to JNTly create a sustainable security environment for the region.

scholarly journals Rethinking the Rise of China and Its Implications on International Order

2020 ◽  
Vol 02 (01) ◽  
pp. 2050005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ciwan M. Can ◽  
Anson Chan
Keyword(s):  
International Order ◽  
Great Powers ◽  
Western World ◽  
Academic Field ◽  
Norms And Values ◽  
The Us ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
Zero Sum ◽  
Common Destiny ◽  
The Rise Of China

The rise of China has become a central debate in the academic field of international relations. In the Western world, the scholars within this debate can roughly be divided into the ‘pessimists’ and the ‘optimists’. The pessimists see in the rise of China an inevitable hegemonic war, or at least prolonged and intense zero-sum competition, with the US as it will seek to replace the latter and overturn the existing liberal international order. The optimists, on the other hand, see an opportunity for sustained Western dominance through selective accommodation of China in exchange for China’s acceptance of the existing norms and values of the liberal international order and continued US dominance. In this paper, we maintain that both perspectives in the debate are misleading. We argue that China seeks to push for a multipolarized world rather than replacing the US, and that Beijing prefers the relations between the great powers within a multipolar order to be based on the conception of a ‘community of common destiny for humankind’. We also argue that China is unlikely to accept the existing norms and values of the liberal international order as they reflect and reinforce Western dominance. Rather, China has become an ‘order-shaper’ seeking to reform the existing institutions to better reflect the interests of the ‘Rest’, and establish new networks and institutions that will complement and augment the existing arrangements of the liberal international order, instead of challenging it.

A New Order of Things?

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. John Ikenberry
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
World Order ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Order ◽  
New Order ◽  
Distinctive Character ◽  
American Hegemony ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
Rising China ◽  
The Rise Of China

This chapter examines the types of challenges that rising states might bring to struggles over international order with a view to the distinctive character of the American-led liberal order and the ways in which this existing order creates constraints and incentives for a rising China. This is contextualized by the geopolitical setting in which China is situated. The chapter argues that even as China faces constraints on the pursuit of a revisionist agenda, it finds incentives to operate within a liberal-oriented international order. China and the United States seem destined to clash over the terms of order in East Asia. But it is a clash that will unfold in a different world-historical setting than past power transitions. The rise of China may bring to an end the era of American hegemony—but it will be harder for China to end the liberal world order that the American era wrought.

4. From the end of the cold war to a new world dis-order?

2019 ◽  
pp. 70-83
Author(s):  
Michael Cox
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
International System ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Political ◽  
The West ◽  
Clinton Presidency ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
The Rise Of China

This chapter provides a broad overview of the international system between the end of the cold war— when many claimed that liberalism and the West had triumphed— through to the second decade of the twenty-first century, when the West itself and the liberal economic order it had hitherto promoted appeared to be coming under increased pressure from political forces at home and new challenges abroad. But before we turn to the present, the chapter will look at some of the key developments since 1989—including the Clinton presidency, the George W. Bush administration’s foreign policy following the attacks of 9/11, the 2008 financial crash, the crisis in Europe, the transitions taking place in the global South, the origins of the upheavals now reshaping the Middle East, the political shift from Barack Obama to Donald Trump, the emergence of Asia, and the rise of China. The chapter then concludes by examining two big questions: first, is power now shifting away from the West, and second, to what extent does the current wave of populism in the West threaten globalization and the liberal order?

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