The Use of Demographic Projections

2020 ◽  
pp. 426-443
Author(s):  
Roland Pressat
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Projections

Implications of higher retirement age for the labor market

2017 ◽  
pp. 22-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ivanova ◽  
A. Balaev ◽  
E. Gurvich
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Labor Supply ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Demand ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Demographic Projections ◽  
The Impact

The paper considers the impact of the increase in retirement age on labor supply and economic growth. Combining own estimates of labor participation and demographic projections by the Rosstat, the authors predict marked fall in the labor force (by 5.6 million persons over 2016-2030). Labor demand is also going down but to a lesser degree. If vigorous measures are not implemented, the labor force shortage will reach 6% of the labor force by the period end, thus restraining economic growth. Even rapid and ambitious increase in the retirement age (by 1 year each year to 65 years for both men and women) can only partially mitigate the adverse consequences of demographic trends.

World Comprehensive Demographic Projections, 1965-1985.

1976 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 149
Author(s):  
United Nations Population Division
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Projections

scholarly journals The Investigation of a Forward-Rate Mortality Framework

Risks ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Daniel H. Alai ◽  
Katja Ignatieva ◽  
Michael Sherris
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Covariance Structure ◽  
Forward Rate ◽  
Longevity Risk ◽  
Demographic Projections ◽  
Stochastic Mortality Models ◽  
Tweedie Distribution ◽  
Insurance Funds

Stochastic mortality models have been developed for a range of applications from demographic projections to financial management. Financial risk based models built on methods used for interest rates and apply these to mortality rates. They have the advantage of being applied to financial pricing and the management of longevity risk. Olivier and Jeffery (2004) and Smith (2005) proposed a model based on a forward-rate mortality framework with stochastic factors driven by univariate gamma random variables irrespective of age or duration. We assess and further develop this model. We generalize random shocks from a univariate gamma to a univariate Tweedie distribution and allow for the distributions to vary by age. Furthermore, since dependence between ages is an observed characteristic of mortality rate improvements, we formulate a multivariate framework using copulas. We find that dependence increases with age and introduce a suitable covariance structure, one that is related to the notion of ax minimum. The resulting model provides a more realistic basis for capturing the risk of mortality improvements and serves to enhance longevity risk management for pension and insurance funds.

scholarly journals Demographic Projections: User and Producer Experiences of Adopting a Stochastic Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 947-962 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Dunstan ◽  
Christopher Ball
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Stochastic Approach ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Demographic Projections ◽  
Statistical Agencies

Abstract Statistics New Zealand is one of the few national statistical agencies to have applied a stochastic (probabilistic) approach to official demographic projections. This article discusses the experience and benefits of adopting this new approach, including the perspective of a key user of projections, the New Zealand Treasury. Our experience is that the change is less difficult to make than might be expected. Uncertainty in the different projection inputs (components) can be modelled simply or with more complexity, and progressively applied to different projection types. This means that not all the different demographic projections an agency produces need to adopt a stochastic approach simultaneously. At the same time, users of the projections are keen to better understand the relative certainty and uncertainty of projected outcomes, given the important uses of projections.

scholarly journals Future Demographic Projections in Oral Cavity and Pharyngeal Cancer: Findings by Age, Race, and Gender

2020 ◽  
Vol 108 (3) ◽  
pp. e794
Author(s):  
W.B. Garner ◽  
D. Edmonston ◽  
D.V. Wakefield ◽  
G.R. Williams ◽  
M. Fenton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Oral Cavity ◽  
Pharyngeal Cancer ◽  
Race And Gender ◽  
Demographic Projections ◽  
And Gender

scholarly journals Microsimulation of Residential Activity for Alternative Urban Development Scenarios: A Case Study on Brussels and Flemish Brabant

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 2370
Author(s):  
Frederik Priem ◽  
Philip Stessens ◽  
Frank Canters
Keyword(s):  
Urban Development ◽  
Urban Sprawl ◽  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Urban Policy ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Demographic Projections ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Natural Land ◽  
Business As Usual

The historically rooted suburbanization of Flanders and the Brussels Capital Region (BCR) in Belgium has resulted in severe urban sprawl, traffic congestion, natural land degradation and many related problems. Recent policy proposals put forward by the two regions aim for more compact urban development in well-serviced areas. Yet, it is unclear how these proposed policies may impact residential dynamics over the coming decades. To address this issue, we developed a Residential Microsimulation (RM) framework that spatially refines coarse-scale demographic projections at the district level to the level of census tracts. The validation of simulated changes from 2001 to 2011 reveals that the proposed framework succeeds in modelling historic trends and clearly outperforms a random model. To support simulation from 2011 to 2040, two alternative urban development scenarios are defined. The Business As Usual (BAU) scenario essentially represents a continuation of urban sprawl development, whereas the Sustainable Development (SUS) scenario strives for higher-density development around strategic well-serviced nodes in line with proposed policies. This study demonstrates how residential microsimulation supported by scenario analysis can play a constructive role in urban policy design and evaluation.

Urban demographic projections and AIDS

Urban Forum ◽  
1991 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-112
Author(s):  
Alan Whiteside
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Projections

scholarly journals The implications of regional and national demographic projections for future GMS costs in Ireland through to 2026

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aisling Conway ◽  
Martin Kenneally ◽  
Noel Woods ◽  
Andreas Thummel ◽  
Marie Ryan
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Projections

scholarly journals Women’s Education, Family Planning, or Both? Application of Multistate Demographic Projections in India

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leiwen Jiang ◽  
Karen Hardee
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Projection Model ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Demographic Projections ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Equality In Education ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Investments In Education

Is education the best contraceptive? Using the multistate human capital projection model, our analysis shows that the projected changes in India population vary depending on investments in education and helping women reduce unwanted fertility rates, that investments in both education and helping women in each education category—but particularly less educated women—meet their wanted fertility will have the largest impacts on India’s population projections, and that the impact from investment in reducing unwanted fertility will be much more immediate and significant than only investments in education. Our analysis also reveals that an increasing education transition rate in India will not only help to achieve a population age structure that is favorable for economic growth, but also result in a larger share of skilled labor force that help to achieve higher economic growth rate. More importantly, investment in girls’ education and achieving gender equality in education will be the most effective measure to increase India’s population education level and improve its overall values of human capital.

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