scholarly journals Impact of inflation on economic growth in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 33-41
Author(s):  
Ijaz Uddin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Introduction. High and sustained economic growth with low inflation is the central objective of the macroeconomic policy makers. Therefore, inflation has been one of the most researched topics in macroeconomics for the last many years because it has serious implications for GDP growth. The main aim of this empirical study to examined the relationship b/w (GDP) Gross Domestic Product Growth and inflation in Pakistan by using time series data from 1990 to 2015. Methodology. This study apply (ADF) Augmented dickey fuller test for stationary, and then, Engel Granger Co-integration test, for short run and long run association. Results. There is a strong positive and significance relationship between GDP growth and inflation in Pakistan. Which indicate that is a 1unit increase an inflation rate will caused by GDP increased by 0.27 unit.

scholarly journals An Empirical Relationship between Agriculture Investment and Economic Growth in North Macedonia: An ARDL Analysis

TEM Journal ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1470-1475
Author(s):  
Nikolche Jankulovski ◽  
Biljana Angelova ◽  
Meri Boshkoska
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

The main aim of this paper is to find the relationship between agriculture investment and the growth of the gross domestic product in North Macedonia. We collected the yearly secondary time series data between the periods 1991 to 2020. We run the ARDL co-integration test to check the long-run as well as the short-run relationship between dependent and independent variables. We found a positive and significant relationship between agriculture valueadded and the growth of the GDP in the long run. The agricultural land has a positive relationship with the growth of the GDP in the long run but negatively correlated in the short run. Last, both variables agricultural methane emissions and inflation are negatively correlated with the growth of the gross domestic product in both the long and the short run.

(Testing the causality between Exports, Oil Rent, and Gross Domestic Product in Kuwait: An empirical study for the period (1980 -2017: اختبار السببية بين الصادرات وإيجار النفط والناتج المحلي الإجمالي في الكويت: دراسة تجريبية للفترة (1980 - 2017)

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (15) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saif Sallam Alhakimi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Direction Of Causation ◽  
The Relationship

The study of the relationship between oil prices, exports, and economic growth has captured the interest of economists for decades, especially for oil-exporting countries. This study intends to determine the relationship and the direction of causation among oil rent, exports, and economic growth in the short-run and long-run, and the causation effects among the variables. Time series data collected from both the world bank and International Monetary Fund databases for the period 1980 to 2017. The series tested for stationarity, cointegration, and causation using the unit root, cointegration, and pairwise granger causality tests. The results revealed that there was a long-run association among the variables. On the other hand, causation only exists between export and economic growth in both directions. Eviews10 statistical software used for the analysis.

scholarly journals Testing the Validity of Keynesian Military Model of Fiscal Side in Case of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 675-686
Author(s):  
Ahmed Gulzar ◽  
Allah Ditta ◽  
Hafeez ur Rehman ◽  
Naghmana Ghafoor
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Growth Time ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Military Expenditures ◽  
The Impact

The objective of the study was to determine the impact of national security expenditures (military expenditures) on economic growth. Time series data from 1981 to 2018 on annual frequency on GDP growth rate, military expenditures as percentage of GDP, imports as percentage of GDP, unemployment rate, FDI as percentage of GDP and percentage of population living in agglomeration cities taken from online World Development Indicators. Johansen Co-integration and VECM methodology are applied to check the long run relationship and to get the long run and short run coefficient values. The major findings of this study explain that there is found the positive and significant relationship between military expenditures and economic growth of Pakistan both in long run and in short run. It explains that military expenditures are the key driver of economic growth both in short run and in the long run. The impact of imports on GDP growth was also found to be positive and significant both in long run and in short run. The impact of FDI is found positive and significant both in the long run and in the short run. The impact of migration of population to agglomeration cities have huge impact on growth were observed. The impact of unemployment was found to be negative on economic growth in short run.

scholarly journals Islamic Capital Markets and Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 39-58
Author(s):  
Dr. Mohammad Ayaz ◽  
Dr.Hassan Shakeel Shah ◽  
Dr. Talat Hussain ◽  
Majid Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This research was conducted to find out whether Islamic capital markets (ICMs) have any effect on economic growth (EG). The study also made a comparison between three countries including Pakistan, Malaysia and UAE in this regard. Quantitative research technique was used in this study, where secondary and time series data was collected on a quarterly basis for the period 2009-2017. The effect of independent variables (IVs) on the dependent variable (DV) was examined. Co-integration and ARDL test were applied in Eviews 9 and Microfit 5.0. A growth model was developed for the selected countries separately in order to see whether IVs had any effect on DV. GDP was the DV of study while IMCAP, TNI and TNL were its IVs. It was found that in case of Pakistan and Malaysia, all the IVs had a significant effect on EG in the short run, while in the long run only IMCAP and TNI have a significant impact. In case of UAE, only two IVs (IMCAP and TNL) had a significant effect on EG in the short run, while in long run only one IV (IMCAP) has a significant impact. Further, it was found that IVs jointly had a significant effect on EG of the selected countries. So, this study concluded that ICMs do have a significant effect on EG of Pakistan, Malaysia and UAE. Considering the importance of ICMs in EG, regulators and policy makers are likely to benefit from the results of the current study which acts as a guide for developing and reforming the ICMs of Pakistan, Malaysia and UAE.Keywords: , , 

scholarly journals The Impact of Military Expenditures on Economic Growth of Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ajmair ◽  
Khadim Hussain ◽  
Faisal Azeem Abbassi ◽  
Misbah Gohar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Military Expenditures ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this research paper is to examine the long run relationship between military expenditure, number of persons in military and economic growth. To fulfill this, the study used ARDL approach for annual time series data from 1990 to 2015. The results show that Pakistan military expenditures are insignificant (military burden for the country is statically insignificant) and number of persons in military are positively and significantly related with GDP growth in long run. The error correction term is negative and significant which shows that short run relationship exists among economic growth, military expenditures and number of army persons. In short run military expenditure and number of persons in military are positively and significantly related with GDP growth but in long run only number of military persons affects economic growth positively and significantly.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

scholarly journals Non-bank financial institutions and economic growth: Evidence from Africa’s three largest economies

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronald Rateiwa ◽  
Meshach J. Aziakpono
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

Background: In order for the post-2015 world development agenda – termed the sustainable development goals (SDGs) – to succeed, there is a pronounced need to ensure that available resources are used more effectively and additional financing is accessed from the private sector. Given that traditional bank lending has slowed down, the development of non-bank financing has become imperative. To this end, this article intends to empirically test the role of non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) in stimulating economic growth.Aim: The aim of this article is to empirically test the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and the development of NBFIs, and the causality thereof.Setting: The empirical assessment uses time-series data from Africa’s three largest economies, namely, Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa, over the period 1971–2013.Methods: This article uses the Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model within a country-specific setting.Results: The results showed that the long-run relationship between NBFI development and economic growth is relatively stronger in Egypt and South Africa, than in Nigeria. Evidence in respect of Nigeria shows that such a relationship is weak. The nature of the relationship between NBFI development and economic growth in Egypt is positive and significant, and predominantly bidirectional. This suggests that a virtuous relationship between NBFIs and economic growth exists in Egypt. In South Africa, the relationship is positive and significant and predominantly runs from NBFI development to economic growth, implying a supply-leading phenomenon. In Nigeria, the results are weak and mixed.Conclusion: The study concludes that in countries with more developed financial systems, the role of NBFIs and their importance to the economic growth process are more pronounced. Thus, there is need for developing policies targeted at developing the NBFI sector, given their potential to contribute to economic growth.

Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Econometric Evidence from Malaysia

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 94-112
Author(s):  
Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker ◽  
Tan Siew Ee ◽  
Sushant Vaidik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Paper Cover ◽  
Econometric Evidence ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The objective of this paper is to test the validity of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH) in the Malaysian economy. Malaysia has always been considered to have attained its growth primarily through exports (Okposin, Bassey, Hamid, Halim, and Boon, 1999; Mun, 2008; Mahathir, 1990). In the past, several studies on this topic have been conducted but their analyses were limited to relationships using Bound-testing, Autoregressive –Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Toda Yamamoto analysis. Empirical data and analysis in our paper cover a 21 – year span and quarterly time-series data (1991:Q1 – 2012:Q4) are used to test this ELG hypothesis. Also, many dynamic econometric measures including the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip – Perron (PP) unit root tests, Cointegration test as well as the Vector Error Correction model (VEC) for the long run have been applied. Based on these generic models, both real exports and capital stock (productivity) are found to have stimulated positive adjustments to economic growth in the long run whereas real exchange rate is found to have influenced economic growth negatively. Overall, our conclusion is that the ELG hypothesis seems applicable to Malaysia in the long run.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

Has the low level of economic growth spurred informal sector activities in Uganda? An empirical analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Esaku
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeIn this paper, the authors examine how economic growth shapes the shadow economy in the long and short run.Design/methodology/approachUsing annual time series data from Uganda, drawn from various data sources, covering the period from 1991 to 2017, the authors apply the ARDL modeling approach to cointegration.FindingsThis paper finds that an increase in economic growth significantly reduces the size of the shadow economy, in both the long and short run, all else equal. However, the long-run relationship between the shadow economy and growth is non-linear. The results suggest that the rise of the shadow economy could partially be attributed to the slow and sluggish rate of economic growth.Practical implicationsThese findings imply that addressing informality requires addressing underlying factors of underdevelopment since improvements in economic growth also translate into a reduction in the size of the shadow economy in the short and long run.Originality/valueThese findings reveal that the low level of economic growth is an issue because it spurs informal sector activities in the short run. However, as the economy improves, it becomes an incentive for individuals to operate in the informal sector. Additionally, tackling shadow activities in the short run could help improve tax revenue collection.

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