scholarly journals An Empirical Relationship between Agriculture Investment and Economic Growth in North Macedonia: An ARDL Analysis

TEM Journal ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1470-1475
Author(s):  
Nikolche Jankulovski ◽  
Biljana Angelova ◽  
Meri Boshkoska
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

The main aim of this paper is to find the relationship between agriculture investment and the growth of the gross domestic product in North Macedonia. We collected the yearly secondary time series data between the periods 1991 to 2020. We run the ARDL co-integration test to check the long-run as well as the short-run relationship between dependent and independent variables. We found a positive and significant relationship between agriculture valueadded and the growth of the GDP in the long run. The agricultural land has a positive relationship with the growth of the GDP in the long run but negatively correlated in the short run. Last, both variables agricultural methane emissions and inflation are negatively correlated with the growth of the gross domestic product in both the long and the short run.

scholarly journals Money supply and economic growth of Nepal: ARDL approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-94
Author(s):  
Keshar Bahadur Kunwar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
P Value ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

There are a number of theories illustrating the relationship between money supply and gross domestic product. Money supply can be defined as the total stock of money circulating in the economy. The circulating money involves the currency, printed notes, money in the deposit accounts, and in the form of other liquid assets. Valuation of money supply helps analysts and policy makers to frame the policy or to alter the existing policy of increasing or reducing the supply of money. The valuation is important as it ultimately affects the business cycle and thereby affecting the economy. This study sought to provide answers to the question, what are the effects of money supply on the gross domestic product in Nepal? The study undertook a causal research design using time series data from the period 1974/75 to 2017/18 to critically investigate the relationship between money supply and economic growth by establishing an empirical relationship that exists between them. The study employed the Augmented Diky fuller test and ARDL- VECM model. The results indicate the existence of a significant long-run relationship between money supply and economic growth as measured by GDP. LNBM is significant to LNGDP and LNGDP is also significant to LNBM so there is bi-directional causality. There is unidirectional relationship existing between LNINF to LNGDP and LNINF to LNBM. ECTcoefficient vale are negative and the p-value of above three approaches are also less than 5 percent which is desirable for the ARDL model.

scholarly journals Do gross domestic product changes have asymmetric effects on India’s energy use?

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Manzoor Ahmad ◽  
Zia Ullah Khan ◽  
Shehzad Khan
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Symmetric Effect

The existing literature on the linkage between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and energy use in both industrialized and developing economies usually assumes that the impacts of gross domestic product changes are symmetric. In this study, we utilized nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and test whether or not the effect of variations in the gross domestic product on energy use is symmetric or asymmetric from the context of India. Using time series data over 1971-2014, the findings depict that the change in the gross domestic product has a symmetric effect on energy use both in short-run and the long-run. Our conclusions infer that there is no asymmetrical association between GDP and energy use, leading to support the symmetric impact of GDP on energy use.

scholarly journals Impact of inflation on economic growth in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 33-41
Author(s):  
Ijaz Uddin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Introduction. High and sustained economic growth with low inflation is the central objective of the macroeconomic policy makers. Therefore, inflation has been one of the most researched topics in macroeconomics for the last many years because it has serious implications for GDP growth. The main aim of this empirical study to examined the relationship b/w (GDP) Gross Domestic Product Growth and inflation in Pakistan by using time series data from 1990 to 2015. Methodology. This study apply (ADF) Augmented dickey fuller test for stationary, and then, Engel Granger Co-integration test, for short run and long run association. Results. There is a strong positive and significance relationship between GDP growth and inflation in Pakistan. Which indicate that is a 1unit increase an inflation rate will caused by GDP increased by 0.27 unit.

scholarly journals COINTEGRATING RELATION BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND GOLD PRICE

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 263-269
Author(s):  
Ranjusha ◽  
Devasia ◽  
Nandakumar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Relationship

The very purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between gold price and Rupee – Dollar exchange rate in India. The study utilises the annual data of exchange Rate (ER) and Gold Price (GP) from 1970 to 2015 to determine the relationship. Different econometric tools like Unit root test, Johansen co integration test, Vector error correction model, Granger causality test are used for detecting the long run relation, if any between the mentioned variables. The result shows that there exists a long run cointegrating relation between the variables. That is we can stabilise the Gold Price movement by controlling the exchange rate fluctuations. Likewise it also shows that Exchange rate doesn’t Granger cause to Gold price and vice versa. It means that the time series data of one vasriable cannot be used to predict another.

scholarly journals Determinants of Pakistan’s Exports: An Econometric Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 95-108
Author(s):  
Arshad Ullah Jadoon ◽  
Yangda Guang ◽  
Anwar Ahmad ◽  
Sajad Ali
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Employment Level ◽  
Consumption Expenditures ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government

The research investigated the determinants of Pakistan’s exports by using time series data from 1990–2016. Certain econometric tests were also applied to check cointegration among variables. A unit root test was used to check the stationarity of selected variables. After the stationarity of the data, a vector error correction model is used to estimate the effect of regressors, like foreign direct investment, gross domestic product, employment level, and consumption expenditures on a dependent variable, i.e. exports in the short run. The result shows the positive relationships that foreign direct investment, gross domestic product and employment level have on exports, and the adverse impact of consumption expenditures on the dependent variable. The study uses Johansen’s cointegration test for the long run. The results show that all the variables are co‑integrated in the long run. It is suggested that the government should encourage foreign direct investment and gross domestic product, which would help accelerate Pakistan’s exports. It is also suggested that whenever policymakers provide a trade policy, in particular, in relation to exports, then the adverse effect of exchange rate depreciation, external debt burdens, taxes, sanctions and protectionism should be quantified, and necessary measures be suggested so as to minimize any repercussions.

scholarly journals Effects of Public Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product in Zambia from 1980-2017: An ARDL Methodology Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 103-111
Author(s):  
Mubanga Mpundu ◽  
Jane Mwafulirwa ◽  
Mutinta Chaampita ◽  
Notulu Salwindi
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The paper explored the fundamental changes in public expenditure and the resulting effect on the gross domestic product using an ARDL approach for time series data over the period 1980-2017. The control variables included foreign direct investment and current account balance. The objective was to determine changes which had occurred with regard to the performance of GDP since 1980. A quantitative method approach was used to ascertain the relationship between the variables and analysed using the E-views 9 software. Cointegration results showed a long run relationship between GDP and government expenditure. In this regard, changes in government expenditure have a strong converse effect on GDP. Government expenditure, which has increased significantly in the past decade, is seen to have had negative effects both in the short run and long run. Contrary to theory, increased government expenditure may not be ideal for growing the Zambian economy. This could be due to the allocation of this public expenditure, i.e. the 2018 Budget had 24% of the expenditure directed to economic activities. Thus it is recommended that government practice increased fiscal discipline or reallocated resources as their expansionary fiscal policies are not yielding the intended results. Additionally, policies to promote private investment may be more beneficial for the Zambian economy. On the other hand, increased investment is also recommended with government encouraging more investment promoting policies as FDI is observed to have a positive impact in the short run though insignificant in the long run. These should ensure more investors are encouraged to stay longer and the impacts/externalities of their investments be accrued to the nationals to ensure long run benefits. The Zambian government should also ensure that the country diversifies its export base and enhances its external debt management to ensure positive and consistent impact of Current Account Balance in the long run.

scholarly journals Human Development Index, Poverty and Gross Regional Domestic Product: Evidence from Malang, Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 146-152
Author(s):  
Dwi Wulandari ◽  
Bagus Shandy Narmaditya ◽  
Putra Hilmi Prayitno ◽  
Suryati Ishak ◽  
Lutfi Asnan
Keyword(s):  
Human Development ◽  
Human Development Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
Development Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

This study aimed at analyzing the relationship between human development index, poverty level and gross regional domestic product in Malang Regency in Indonesia. This research was initiated by the poverty level which shows a moderate level in Malang Regency and how its impact on gross regional domestic product after the Development of Southern Cross Lane (JLS) in Malang. The study applied an explanatory research using time series data between 2014 and 2018. For the analysis, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was applied to understand the relationship between variables both in the short-term and in the long-term. The findings showed that in the short-run both variables have a negative correlation with gross regional domestic product. Meanwhile, in the long-run, human development index has a negative relationship to gross regional domestic product, whilst poverty variables positively affects gross regional domestic product.

scholarly journals The education investment dimension of international personal remittances in Colombia

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 428-436
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Series Data ◽  
International Remittances ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Enrolment Ratio ◽  
Capital Development ◽  
Integrated Or ◽  
The Relationship

The study investigated the relationship between personal international remittances received and gross enrolment ratio in Colombia. There are three hypotheses explaining the relationship between personal international remittances and education (human capital development). These are (1) remittances-led education hypothesis, (2) education-led remittances hypothesis and (3) neutrality hypothesis that says there is no relationship at all between these two variables. Although majority of the empirical studies support the remittances-led education hypothesis, the subject is still attracting contradicting findings and not yet conclusive. It is on the backdrop of such lack of consensus in the literature that the author investigated the relationship between personal remittances received and gross enrolment ratio primary and secondary (%) in Colombia. The study used the auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds co-integration testing technique with annual time series data ranging between 1978 and 2010 to determine the existence of a long run relationship between personal remittances and education in Colombia. The ARDL F-bounds co-integration test revealed that personal remittances received and gross enrolment ratio for both primary and secondary schools in Colombia are not co-integrated or they do not have any long run relationship, thus supporting the neutrality hypothesis. This conclusion was arrived at using either personal remittances or gross enrolment ratio as a dependent variable. These results imply that personal remittances received in Colombia were directed more towards consumption and not invested in education. The study therefore urges the Colombian authorities to concientise the recipients of the personal remittances to invest in the children’s education rather than spending the remittances on consumption purposes

scholarly journals Analysis of the Nexus of CO2 Emissions, Economic Growth, Land under Cereal Crops and Agriculture Value-Added in Pakistan Using an ARDL Approach

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 4590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali ◽  
Liu ◽  
Shah ◽  
Tariq ◽  
Ali Chandio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cereal Crops ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test

The present study attempts to explore the correlation between carbon dioxide emissions (CO2 e), gross domestic product (GDP), land under cereal crops (LCC) and agriculture value-added (AVA) in Pakistan. The study exploits time-series data from 1961 to 2014 and further applies descriptive statistical analysis, unit root test, Johansen co-integration test, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and pairwise Granger causality test. The study employes augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) tests to check the stationarity of the variables. The results of the analysis reveal that there is both short- and long-run association between agricultural production, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in the country. The long-run results estimate that there is a positive and insignificant association between carbon dioxide emissions, land under cereal crops, and agriculture value-added. The results of the short-run analysis point out that there is a negative and statistically insignificant association between carbon dioxide emissions and gross domestic product. It is very important for the Government of Pakistan’s policymakers to build up agricultural policies, strategies and planning in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Consequently, the country should promote environmentally friendly agricultural practices in order to strengthen its efforts to achieve sustainable agriculture.

scholarly journals Economic Determinants of Unemployment in Malaysia: Short – and Long – Run Causality

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 251
Author(s):  
Jason Freedline Baba ◽  
Dayang Haszelinna Binti Abang Ali
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Determinants Of Unemployment

The problem of unemployment has become a worrisome issue over the past few years as it is growing at an alarming state in many countries throughout the world particularly in developing countries such as Malaysia. There are numerous factors that cause this phenomenon. Therefore, the aim of this study is to empirically investigate the determinants of unemployment in Malaysia as well as the relationship between unemployment and the chosen fundamental macroeconomic factors such as gross domestic product, foreign direct investment, inflation, and population. This study utilized the annual time series data of 31 year period starting from the year 1985 to the year 2015. The methodology of econometric analysis have been applied in this study such as unit root tests, co-integration test, vector error correction model, variance decompositions, and impulse response functions analysis. The findings showed that there are presences of short run causality among the variables and also a presence of long run only when population act as the dependent variable in the model. Besides, the findings indicate that GDP has a significant negative impact whereas FDI has a significant positive impact on unemployment in Malaysia. Overall, the conclusion of this study suggests that demand side policies and supply side policies are the most excellent and suitable approach in overcoming the problem of unemployment in Malaysia.

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