scholarly journals Islamic Capital Markets and Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 39-58
Author(s):  
Dr. Mohammad Ayaz ◽  
Dr.Hassan Shakeel Shah ◽  
Dr. Talat Hussain ◽  
Majid Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This research was conducted to find out whether Islamic capital markets (ICMs) have any effect on economic growth (EG). The study also made a comparison between three countries including Pakistan, Malaysia and UAE in this regard. Quantitative research technique was used in this study, where secondary and time series data was collected on a quarterly basis for the period 2009-2017. The effect of independent variables (IVs) on the dependent variable (DV) was examined. Co-integration and ARDL test were applied in Eviews 9 and Microfit 5.0. A growth model was developed for the selected countries separately in order to see whether IVs had any effect on DV. GDP was the DV of study while IMCAP, TNI and TNL were its IVs. It was found that in case of Pakistan and Malaysia, all the IVs had a significant effect on EG in the short run, while in the long run only IMCAP and TNI have a significant impact. In case of UAE, only two IVs (IMCAP and TNL) had a significant effect on EG in the short run, while in long run only one IV (IMCAP) has a significant impact. Further, it was found that IVs jointly had a significant effect on EG of the selected countries. So, this study concluded that ICMs do have a significant effect on EG of Pakistan, Malaysia and UAE. Considering the importance of ICMs in EG, regulators and policy makers are likely to benefit from the results of the current study which acts as a guide for developing and reforming the ICMs of Pakistan, Malaysia and UAE.Keywords: , , 

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

scholarly journals Do banking sector reforms cause economic growth?: Empirical evidence from Africa’s largest economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 553-564
Author(s):  
Andy Titus Okwu ◽  
Olusola Babatunde Falaiye ◽  
Rowland Tochukwu Obiakor ◽  
Ajibola Joseph Olusegun
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Reform Strategies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
And Control

This paper employed time series data on relevant empirical diagnostics to examine banking sector growth-led nexus within the context of Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria. Diagnostics established stationarity of banking sector indicators and control variables at first difference. Findings showed no causal relationships between banking sector reforms and economic growth in the short-run and that, though liberalisation in particular did not Granger-cause growth of the economy during the study period, banking sector reforms caused growth of the real sector of the Nigerian economy. Hence, the caveat was that long-run growth effects of banking sector reforms on real sectors of economies are functions of policy targets of such banking or financial sectors reform strategies. Consequently, articulation of banking and financial sectors reforms within long-run rather than short-run perspectives and complementarity of liberalisation were recommended.

scholarly journals Financial Development and Stock Traded Contributions towards Economic Growth

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-8
Author(s):  
Shehper Maryam Zafar ◽  
Nadia Bukhari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Term Impact

This purpose of this research is check the long run as well as short run impact of Financial Development and Stock traded on the economic growth in the scenario of Pakistan. The time series data has taken for the year 1988-2013. This paper utilized ARDL methodology to determine long-term impact of Financial Development and Stock Traded on Economic growth. Further Granger Causality Check has used to check a uni-directional relationship. The results of this test support that FD and stock traded has a uni-directional impact over economic growth. Further, it has depicted from ARDL that there is a positive relationship between FD and Economic Growth as well as Stock Traded and Economic Growth.

scholarly journals Impact of inflation on economic growth in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 33-41
Author(s):  
Ijaz Uddin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Introduction. High and sustained economic growth with low inflation is the central objective of the macroeconomic policy makers. Therefore, inflation has been one of the most researched topics in macroeconomics for the last many years because it has serious implications for GDP growth. The main aim of this empirical study to examined the relationship b/w (GDP) Gross Domestic Product Growth and inflation in Pakistan by using time series data from 1990 to 2015. Methodology. This study apply (ADF) Augmented dickey fuller test for stationary, and then, Engel Granger Co-integration test, for short run and long run association. Results. There is a strong positive and significance relationship between GDP growth and inflation in Pakistan. Which indicate that is a 1unit increase an inflation rate will caused by GDP increased by 0.27 unit.

scholarly journals Pre-COVID-19 evaluation of external debt, corruption and economic growth in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebenezer Gbenga Olamide ◽  
Andrew Maredza
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThis study is a pre-COVID-19 exposition of the existing situation about external debt-GDP relationship, incorporating corruption into the hypothesis, making South Africa the object of the study. The aim is to examine the causal relationship between corruption, economic growth and external debt, and in the end proffer solutions to the problems arising therefrom.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed ARDL technique on time series data running from 1990 to 2019 with real gross domestic product as the dependent variable and external debt, external debt servicing, corruption, inflation and capital formation as regressors. Necessary tests that include unit root, cointegration, CUSUM and CUSUMSq, normality, serial correlation and heteroscedasticity were performed on the model.FindingsThe study shows that corruption, inflation and external debt servicing exert negative influences on economic growth while the effect of investment on growth was positive. External debt's effect in the short run was positive while its long-run effect on growth was negative. Among other things, the need to improve and strengthen public institutions in addition to targeting tax evaders and avoiders for increased government revenue were emphasized.Originality/valueThe study incorporates corruption into the country specific debt-GDP debate as against earlier studies that excluded corruption in their time series analysis or that were cross-country based. The authors also exposit the existing knowledge of the debt-GDP hypothesis before the outbreak of COVID 19 pandemic. This is expected to serve as a precursor to subsequent studies on the rising debt of South Africa during and after the pandemic.

scholarly journals Analysis of FDI and Financial improvements for the Economic growth

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-32
Author(s):  
Nadia Bukhari ◽  
Atiq ul Rahman Malik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Term Impact

This study is conducted in order to check the long run as well as short run impact of FDI and Financial Development on the economic growth. The study is conducted in the scenario of Pakistan and the time series data is taken for the year 1972-2013. ARDL methodology is used to determine whether FDI has long-term impact on Economic growth or not. Moreover, Granger Causality is used to check a uni-directional relationship and the results support that FDI has an impact over economic growth. Further, it is depicted from ARDL that there is a positive relationship between FDI and Economic Growth.

scholarly journals Inter-Sectorial Linkage of Economic Sectors and Their Contribution to Economic Growth: A Time Series Evidence from Ethiopia and China

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-32
Author(s):  
Abrham Tezera Gessesse ◽  
Zheng Xungang ◽  
He Ge
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test

Purpose: The aim of this paper is to investigate the inter-sectorial linkage of economic sectors and their contribution to the economic growth using time series data from 1978-2014 and 1992-2014. Design/methodology/approach: This study employed a Johansen cointegration test and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model. Findings: The Johansen cointegration and multiple regression results indicate that all economic sectors have strong, positive and significant long-run and short-run relationship with economic growth during the study period in both countries. The result revealed that MNF giant is an engine for Chinese economic growth while agriculture took the lion-share for Ethiopian economy. The MNF has bi-directional Granger cause with economic growth, agriculture and SRV for China, while GDP and AGR are the only bi-directional Granger causes variables for Ethiopia. Implications: Therefore, from a policy perspective, Ethiopian policymakers need to formulate agro-processing industries to ensure the transformation of the AGR to the MNF as well as maintain inter-sectorial linkage and sustain the country’s economic growth.  

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

Has the low level of economic growth spurred informal sector activities in Uganda? An empirical analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Esaku
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeIn this paper, the authors examine how economic growth shapes the shadow economy in the long and short run.Design/methodology/approachUsing annual time series data from Uganda, drawn from various data sources, covering the period from 1991 to 2017, the authors apply the ARDL modeling approach to cointegration.FindingsThis paper finds that an increase in economic growth significantly reduces the size of the shadow economy, in both the long and short run, all else equal. However, the long-run relationship between the shadow economy and growth is non-linear. The results suggest that the rise of the shadow economy could partially be attributed to the slow and sluggish rate of economic growth.Practical implicationsThese findings imply that addressing informality requires addressing underlying factors of underdevelopment since improvements in economic growth also translate into a reduction in the size of the shadow economy in the short and long run.Originality/valueThese findings reveal that the low level of economic growth is an issue because it spurs informal sector activities in the short run. However, as the economy improves, it becomes an incentive for individuals to operate in the informal sector. Additionally, tackling shadow activities in the short run could help improve tax revenue collection.

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