The Effect of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Turkish Diesel Consumption Volatility Dynamics

PurposeIn this study, inventories are introduced as a productive input into a real-business-cycle (RBC) setup augmented with the government.Design/methodology/approachThe model is calibrated to Bulgarian data for the period 1999–2019. The quantitative importance of the presence of inventories is investigated.FindingsThe quantitative effect of inventories is found to be important: decreasing consumption volatility and increasing employment variability. Those results, however, are at the expense of decreasing wage volatility and increasing investment volatility, and generally worsening the contemporaneous correlations of the main variables with output.Originality/valueFluctuations in inventory levels matter for business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria, which is a novel result. Still, there is a need for more research on the incorporation of inventories into RBC models to better fit the Bulgarian experience.

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Government Consumption Volatility and the Size of Nations

FinanzArchiv Public Finance Analysis ◽

10.1628/001522116x14660601438148 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 72 (2) ◽

pp. 211

Author(s):

Davide Furceri ◽

Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro ◽

Sinem Kılıç Çelik

Keyword(s):

Government Consumption ◽

Consumption Volatility

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Volatility Risk Pass-Through

Review of Financial Studies ◽

10.1093/rfs/hhab096 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Riccardo Colacito ◽

Mariano M Croce ◽

Yang Liu ◽

Ivan Shaliastovich

Keyword(s):

Risk Sharing ◽

Output Volatility ◽

Equity Prices ◽

Volatility Risk ◽

Consumption Volatility ◽

Net Exports ◽

Pass Through ◽

Average Consumption ◽

Macroeconomic Aggregates

Abstract We develop a novel measure of volatility pass-through to assess international propagation of output volatility shocks to macroeconomic aggregates, equity prices, and currencies. An increase in country’s output volatility is associated with a decrease in its output, consumption, and net exports. The average consumption pass-through is 50% (a 1% increase in output volatility increases consumption volatility by 0.5%) and it increases to 70% for shocks originating in smaller countries. The equity volatility pass-through is larger and in the order of 90%. A novel channel of risk sharing of volatility risks can explain our empirical findings.

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Partisan Cycles and the Consumption Volatility Puzzle

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.1866431 ◽

2011 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Marina Azzimonti ◽

Matthew Talbert

Keyword(s):

Consumption Volatility ◽

Volatility Puzzle

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Access to Migration for Rural Households

American Economic Journal Applied Economics ◽

10.1257/app.20160395 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 79-119 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Cynthia Kinnan ◽

Shing-Yi Wang ◽

Yongxiang Wang

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Internal Migration ◽

Unique Feature ◽

Rural Households ◽

Household Production ◽

Time Varying ◽

Temporary Migration ◽

Consumption Volatility ◽

High Return ◽

Asset Holding

This paper exploits a unique feature of China’s history, the “sent-down youth” (SDY ) program, to study the effects of access to internal migration. We show that temporary migration due to the SDY program created lasting inter-province links. We interact these links with two time-varying pull measures in potential destinations. Decades after the SDY program ended, increased access to migration in cities that sent SDY leads to higher rates of migration from provinces where those SDY temporarily resided. We find that improved access to migration leads to lower consumption volatility and lower asset holding. Furthermore, household production shifts into high-risk, high-return activities. (JEL D13, J24, O15, O18, P25, P36, R23)

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