Factors Determining Gold Prices in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-82
Author(s):  
Anis Mat Dalam ◽  
Noorhaslinda Kulub Abd Rashid ◽  
Jaharudin Padli
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Gold Reserve

Gold is a valuable asset to a country because of its liquidity. Gold reserve can stabilize the currency in a country. The objective of this paper is to identify the factors contributing to the volatility of gold prices, such as Real Malaysia GDP, inflation rates, crude oil prices and exchange rates. The data was analysed using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with time series data, with 30-year coverage from 1987 to 2016. Findings showed that only Real Malaysia GDP and crude oil prices were significantly related to gold prices. As a conclusion, this study can be used as reference by other investors. The author suggests to other researchers to further improve upon this study by adding more variables or diversifying the variables that relate to volatility of gold prices.

scholarly journals MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AND RISING FOOD PRICES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Salman ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Food Commodities

Purpose: This study examines the long and short-run impact of macroeconomic variable on rising food commodities prices. Methodology/Sampling: For this paper mixed method approach is used, quantitative time series data over the period 1991-2013 and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to Co-integration, whereas qualitative data is collected from thematic analysis of many past researches in order to determine the most and least critical consequences of food prices skies by using NVIVO 10 software technique “tree map”. Findings: The result shows energy prices and dollar prices have positive beta coefficients and having statistically significant impact on rising food commodities price index Moreover, the error correction model’s coefficient is with negative sign that suggests its expected significant adjustment toward long-term. Whereas the qualitative results identified different variables have different magnitude of relationship with rising food prices in different situation; Exchange rate, energy prices, money supply are the most critical consequences of rising food items prices. Practical Implications: The study therefore recommends that government should develop and integrated efficient and effective energy and monetary policy with long-term future development outline of controlling food inflation.

scholarly journals The Analysis Effect Of Commodities Crude Oil and Coal In Indonesia Stock Exchange

Performance ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 143
Author(s):  
H. Hersugondo ◽  
Rio Dhani Laksana ◽  
Viviana Mayasari
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Strong Positive Correlation ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Global Stock Markets

Crude oil is a commodity and major world needs today. Since the historic collapse of Lehman Brothers helped precipitate the global economic crisis in the spring of 2008, a strong positive correlation between the price of crude oil continues to appear and the global stock markets, including the stock exchanges in Indonesia. This happens due to capital market investors assume that rising energy prices are a sign of the increasing global demand objective of this study was to determine the effect of crude oil prices and the price of coal on JCI in the Stock Exchange in the period 2012 -2017. This study will use a time series data analysis tool Vector Autoregression approach. VAR model approach is considered more suitable for detecting a mutual relationship or a dynamic two-way causality between variables in world crude oil prices, the price of gold and the price of coal on the stock price index of the mining sector in the system of equations

scholarly journals Determinan dan Stabilitas Ekspor Crude Palm Oil Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Eva Nurul Huda ◽  
Arif Widodo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short And Long Term

<p><em>We analyze the influence of CPO production, exchange rate, international CPO price and the terms of trade on Indonesian CPO exports in October 2011-December 2015. In doing so, we use the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to analyze the monthly time-series data for the periods of 2011:M10-2015:M12. Our findings suggest that both in the short- and long-term, the international CPO price has a significantly negative impact on Indonesia's CPO exports. Meanwhile, the CPO production and exchange rate have negative and significant effects on Indonesia's CPO exports both in short- and long-term. Taken together, all the independent variables have significant effects on Indonesia’s CPO export. Finally, based on CUSUM and CUSUMQ test, it shows that the long-term coefficient of the CPO exports model is stable.</em></p><p><em><br /></em></p><p align="center"><strong>Abstrak</strong></p><p align="center"><strong> </strong></p><p><em>Tujuan dari studi ini adalah untuk menganalisis seberapa besar pengaruh dari produksi kelapa sawit, nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar AS, harga CPO internasional dan <em>Term of Trade</em> terhadap ekspor CPO Indonesia pada periode Oktober 2011 sampai dengan Desember 2015. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan <em>Autoregressive Distributed Lag</em> (ARDL) dengan data sekunder runtut waktu bulanan untuk periode 2011:M10-2015:M12. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa harga CPO internasional mempunyai efek negatif dan signifikan, baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang terhadap ekspor CPO Indonesia. Variable<em> Term of Trade</em> dalam jangka pendek maupun panjang mempunyai efek positif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor CPO, sedangkan variabel produksi kelapa sawit dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika mempunyai pengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor dalam jangka pendek maupun panjang. Lebih lanjut, semua variabel independen secara bersama-sama mempengaruhi ekspor CPO di Indonesia, sehingga hipotesis yang menunjukkan tidak ada hubungan antara variabel independen dan dependen ditolak. Terakhir, berdasarkan pada uji CUSUM dan CUSUMQ dapat disimpulkan bahwa model ekspor CPO stabil dalam jangka panjang.<br /></em></p>

Macro-Economic Disequilibrium and Educational Development in Nigeria between 1980-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (08) ◽  
pp. 20592-21600
Author(s):  
Gbadebo Salako ◽  
Adejumo Musibau Ojo ◽  
Jaji Ayobami Francis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Educational Development ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stationarity Test ◽  
Level I

This study empirically investigates the effects of macroeconomic disequilibrium on educational development in Nigeria. The study employed time series data between 1980 and 2017. Autoregressive Distributed Lag method of estimation was employed. The result revealed that the variables stationarity test were mixed between the first difference I(I) and level I(0). The cointegration result shows that there exist long run relationship between the variables. The result revealed that Balance of payment, Poverty, Debt rate inflation and unemployment exhibited negative relationship with educational development. The estimation result showed that all explanatory variables account for 88% variation of educational development in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that government should fast track policies that can stabilize inflation and exchange rate in the country. Also, Policies must be formulated to reduce poverty and unemployment.

scholarly journals Financial Deepening And Financial Performance Of Deposit Money Banks In Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (11) ◽  
pp. 179-191
Author(s):  
Mulkat Ajibola Yusuff ◽  
Fatimah Olabisi Olaniran-Akinyele
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Market Capitalization ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag

This study examines the effect of financial deepening on financial performance of Nigerian Deposit Money Banks using time-series data spanning 1990Q1-2017Q4. The financial performance is expressed by return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) with total bank liability, private sector credit and market capitalization as measure of financial deepening. The technique of analysis deployed is autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) to co integration. The findings show that the effect of total bank liability is positive and significant. Market capitalization and private sector credit on the other hand exert negative and significant effect. The study concludes that financial deepening affect financial performance of Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria. It then recommends effective loan recovery strategy to mitigate the negative influence of private sector credit due to non-performing loans.

scholarly journals Is Islamic Bank More Stable Than Conventional Bank? Evidence From Islamic Rural Banks in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 294
Author(s):  
Agus Widarjono ◽  
M. B. Hendrie Anto ◽  
Faaza Fakhrunnas
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Profit Rate ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Better Than

This study investigates whether Islamic rural banks perform better than conventional rural banks as their competitor in Indonesia. To measure Islamic rural banks' financial performance, we apply financial stability using Z-score and profitability using the return on assets. We use monthly time series data from January 2009 to December 2018. The dynamic regression of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is then employed. The results report that the Z-Score of Islamic rural banks is higher than the Z-Score of conventional rural banks. This finding shows that Islamic rural banks are less risky than conventional rural banks. However, the Islamic rural banks' financial stability is very vulnerable to changes in equity, output, and inflation than conventional rural banks. Although the Islamic rural banks' profit rate is lower compared to conventional rural banks, it is considered more stable. The profit of Islamic rural banks is affected by size, equity, domestic output, and inflation.

ANALYZING THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF CRUDE OIL PRICE CHANGES ON CHINA’S PETROLEUM PRODUCT PRICES

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
XIANCHUN LIAO ◽  
JUNGHO BAEK
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Gasoline Prices ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

As the world’s second-largest crude oil consumer, China depends on imports for approximately 60% and domestic production for approximately 40%, of its oil demand. Therefore, it is very interesting to assess the pass-through effects of both domestic and international crude oil prices to gasoline and diesel prices. After the short- and long-run investigations using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology of Shin et al. [Shin, Y, BC Yu and M Greenwood-Nimmo (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework” Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, R Sickels and W Horrace (eds.), pp. 281–314. Springer.], we find overwhelming evidence supporting the asymmetric price transmission mechanism between crude oil prices and gasoline prices in both the short- and long-run. In the case of diesel prices, on the other hand, the asymmetry effects seem likely to be a long-run phenomenon.

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