scholarly journals Money Supply, Inflation and Economic Growth in China: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 73-80
Author(s):  
Cheng-Wen Lee ◽  
Hao-Yuan Yu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
National Income ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Monetary Neutrality ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach

The empirical analysis applies the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to investigate the relationship between money supply, inflation and economic growth in China with the time series data from 1980 to 2018, estimate the cointegration of monetary and economic growth in long-run relationship and uses vector error correction model to determine the short-run adjustment between the variables. The research showed that the increase in national income met people's demand for goods and eased inflationary pressures. The results support the view of monetarism and help the government formulate economic policies in a prudent manner to control inflation in China. JEL classification numbers: A10, E52, P44 Keywords: ARDL bounds test, Long-Run, Monetary Neutrality.

scholarly journals ISLAMIC FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: A BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tasiu Tijjani Sabiu ◽  
Muhammad Abduh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Correction Method ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Bank Financing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach

Using a bounds testing approach to the cointegration and error correction method developed within the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework, this paper analyses the short- and long-run dynamic relationships between Islamic financial development and economic growth in Nigeria. Quarterly time-series data (2012:1 to 2019:3) are employed for the variables, together with non-interest bank financing to the private sector and real gross domestic product as indicators of Islamic financial development and economic growth respectively. The results indicate a significant short- and long-run relationship between Islamic financial development and economic growth. The relationship, however, is neither Schumpeter’s supply-leading nor Robinson’s demand-following type; rather, it appears to be bi-directional. In addition, empirical evidence is found that underscores the important role of Islamic bank financing in the economic performance of Nigeria. The paper recommends that improvement of the Islamic financial system in Nigeria may foster economic development and enhance welfare and poverty alleviation in the long run.

Do fisheries and aquaculture production have dominant roles within the economic growth of Pakistan? A long-run and short-run investigation

2019 ◽  
Vol 121 (8) ◽  
pp. 1926-1935
Author(s):  
Abdul Rehman ◽  
Zhang Deyuan ◽  
Sehresh Hena ◽  
Abbas Ali Chandio
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate and explore the connection between aquaculture and capture fisheries production and economic growth in Pakistan. Fisheries play an important role in Pakistan’s national economy, and Pakistan has sufficient fishery resources to be developed. Most of the population in the coastal areas depends on fisheries for their livelihood. Design/methodology/approach This research was based on time series data of aquaculture and capture fisheries production and the analysis of their relationship with economic growth in Pakistan. The study used an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to check the dynamic causality between the study variables. Findings The results showed that aquaculture and capture fisheries production have had a positive effect on the economic growth in Pakistan. Practical implications Better infrastructure for the fishing industry, increased government expenditure on facilities and financial support for the fish farmers could contribute to economic growth in the future. Recommendations for improvements in these areas have been made. Originality/value By using an ARDL bounds testing approach, this study contributes to the literature regarding fisheries production and economic growth in Pakistan.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact On Rice Production in Pakistan: An ARDL-Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheng Jiang ◽  
Habibullah Magsi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

This research paper aims to examine the relationship between CO2, temperature, area, fertilizers and rice production in Pakistan. This study used Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests to check the order of integration of each variable. The cointegration analysis with ARDL bounds testing approach is used to examine the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan over time series data from the period 1968 to 2014. The parameter stability test of the model is also checked at the end. The results of estimation show that the important variables of the study are cointegrated demonstrating the presence of long-run association among them. Furthermore, climate change factors, e.g. CO2 and temperature have a long-run and short-run positive effect on the production of rice in Pakistan. This present work is original and it is first time empirically tested the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan. The annual time series data of 47 years enhances the validity of the empirical findings. The most fruitful finding of this research is that rice production in Pakistan is positively influenced by emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) at 5 percent significance level in both long-run and short-run.

scholarly journals An ARDL Approach to Check the Linkage Between Economic Growth, Electricity Access, Energy Use and Population Growth in Pakistan: Long-run and Short-run Analysis

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Rehman ◽  
Zhang Deyuan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
Electricity Access ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

The major aim of this study was to investigate and explores the linkage between economic growth, electricity access, energy use and population growth in Pakistan. To check the variables stationarity, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron unit root test was applied and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to co-integration was applied to investigate the dynamic causality link among the study variables. These tests shed light on the long-run connection among the variables; further, the results revealed that electricity access to population, electricity access to urban population, energy usage, population growth, and urban population growth had a significant impact on economic growth, while the electricity access to rural population and rural population growth has a negative impact on the economic growth in Pakistan. According to these findings, study commends that government of Pakistan pay further attention to increase its electricity production from different sources including, hydroelectric, solar, oil and gas and nuclear in order to fulfill the country’s demands. By using ARDL bounds testing approach, this study filled the literature gap regarding economic growth, electricity access, energy use and population growth in Pakistan.

scholarly journals Tourism And Economic Growth In Kenya: An Empirical Investigation

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Obadiah N. Kibara ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo ◽  
Josephine M. Njuguna
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Critical Question ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series

In this study, we examine the dynamic relationship between tourism sector development and economic growth using annual time-series data from Kenya. The study attempts to answer one critical question - Is tourism development in Kenya pro-growth? The study uses an ARDL-bounds testing approach to examine these linkages and also incorporates trade as an intermittent variable between tourism development and economic growth in a multivariate setting. The results of our study show that there is a uni-directional causality from tourism development to economic growth. The results are found to hold irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short run and long run. Other results show that international tourism Granger-causes trade, while trade Granger-causes economic growth in Kenya in both the short and the long run.

scholarly journals The Long-Run and Short-Run Impacts of Investment, Export, Money Supply, and Inflation on Economic Growth In Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erni Panca Kurniasih
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Term Investment

ABSTRACTThe development of investment and exports in Indonesia shows an increase, as well as money supply, while the inflation rate shows a decline, but this is not always followed by increasing economic growth. This study aims to explain the relationship between investment, export, money supply and inflation with the economic growth in Indonesia. The data used was time series data from the first quarter in 2001 to the fourth quarter in 2014 and was analyzed using multiple regression models with Error Correction Model (ECM) and classical assumptions. The study findings show that in short-term investment, export, money supply and inflation are not significant to economic growth. In long-run, investment has negative and significant effect on the economic growth, while export, money supply and inflation have positive and significant effect on the economic growth in Indonesia. Bank Indonesia must applied a tight money policy consistently to achieve the long-term inflation target ABSTRAKPerkembangan investasi dan ekspor di Indonesia menunjukkan peningkatan, demikian pula jumlah uang beredar, sementara tingkat inflasi menunjukkan penurunan, namun hal tersebut tidak selalu diikuti dengan meningkatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi. Studi ini bertujuan untuk menjelaskan hubungan antara investasi, ekspor neto, jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data time series dari kuartal pertama tahun 2001 hingga kuartal keempat tahun 2014 dan dianalisa dengan menggunakan model regresi berganda dengan Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil studi menunjukkan  bahwa investasi, ekspor, jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek. Investasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang, sedangkan ekspor , jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi berpengaruh positif dan  signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Bank Indonesia harus menerapkan kebijakan moneter yang ketat secara konsisten pada pencapaian sasaran inflasi jangka menenngah 

scholarly journals Impact of Inflation Targeting Policy Framework of Countries between the Period of 2009-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ananda Rathnayake
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Karl Marx ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Today, many countries in the world tend to choose Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy Framework, in which context it has become a matter of debate whether inflation or economic growth is driven by monetary expansions. The common acceptance is that inflation is created by the continuous rise in the money supply which is strongly proved through the economic theories forwarded by Karl Marx, Irvin Fisher and Friedman. The main aim of the study is to examine the relationship between money supply and economic growth under a broad phenomenon by utilizing the countries with inflation targeting policies in action. The time-series data have been collected from different countries that exercise inflation targeting from 2009 to 2019 and the sample included 39 countries from all over the globe, both from developed and developing categories. The utilized Autoregressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) model forwarded the results suggesting that there is a significant negative relationship between the economic growth and money supply in the long run while no relationship has been observed in the short run.

scholarly journals Education Expenditure and Economic Growth in Mauritius: An Application of the Bounds Testing Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tafirenyika Sunde
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
The Other ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Education Expenditure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Investments In Education

This study examines the relationship between education expenditure and economic growth in Mauritius. The study employed the ARDL bounds testing methodology for the period 1976 to 2016. The study found that education expenditure Granger causes economic growth in Mauritius in the short run. In addition, the study also found that economic growth does not Granger cause education expenditure in Mauritius in the short run. However, in the long-run, the study found that there are long run relationships between education expenditure and economic growth in both equations; and this means that an increase in either of the variables will eventually lead to an increase in the other variable. The study, therefore, found support for the hypothesis that investment in education raises economic growth. This means that Mauritius has the potential to benefit from further investments in education in the future.

scholarly journals The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 90-97
Author(s):  
Sani Ali Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
National Income ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The economic development performance can be used to measure the economic growth of a given country. In economic analysis, a country can attain economic growth through the growth in national income measurement. However, there were rigorous discussions on the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth and continued to be a topic of discussion on the contemporary economy. This paper serves as an extension to the previous empirical studies on the issue by providing some evidence from time series data for the period 1971 to 2013 of Nigeria. The primary aim of this study is to analyze the impact of FDI on economic growth of Nigeria taking trade openness, Gross Fixed Capital Formation and human capital as control variables. To investigate the long run equilibrium relationship, Johansen and Juselius co-integration approach is analyzed, while the speed of adjustment in the short run is analyzed through the use of VECM method. In Nigeria, FDI, GFCF and HK have long run relationship with economic growth. However, the coefficient of ECM in Nigeria is statistically significant at 1% level of significance. Thus, 10.8% of the adjustment is achieved due to the correction of the adjustment speed in a year.

scholarly journals Money supply and economic growth of Nepal: ARDL approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-94
Author(s):  
Keshar Bahadur Kunwar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
P Value ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

There are a number of theories illustrating the relationship between money supply and gross domestic product. Money supply can be defined as the total stock of money circulating in the economy. The circulating money involves the currency, printed notes, money in the deposit accounts, and in the form of other liquid assets. Valuation of money supply helps analysts and policy makers to frame the policy or to alter the existing policy of increasing or reducing the supply of money. The valuation is important as it ultimately affects the business cycle and thereby affecting the economy. This study sought to provide answers to the question, what are the effects of money supply on the gross domestic product in Nepal? The study undertook a causal research design using time series data from the period 1974/75 to 2017/18 to critically investigate the relationship between money supply and economic growth by establishing an empirical relationship that exists between them. The study employed the Augmented Diky fuller test and ARDL- VECM model. The results indicate the existence of a significant long-run relationship between money supply and economic growth as measured by GDP. LNBM is significant to LNGDP and LNGDP is also significant to LNBM so there is bi-directional causality. There is unidirectional relationship existing between LNINF to LNGDP and LNINF to LNBM. ECTcoefficient vale are negative and the p-value of above three approaches are also less than 5 percent which is desirable for the ARDL model.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document