Money Supply, Inflation and Economic Growth in China: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

The empirical analysis applies the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to investigate the relationship between money supply, inflation and economic growth in China with the time series data from 1980 to 2018, estimate the cointegration of monetary and economic growth in long-run relationship and uses vector error correction model to determine the short-run adjustment between the variables. The research showed that the increase in national income met people's demand for goods and eased inflationary pressures. The results support the view of monetarism and help the government formulate economic policies in a prudent manner to control inflation in China. JEL classification numbers: A10, E52, P44 Keywords: ARDL bounds test, Long-Run, Monetary Neutrality.

Monetary spillovers and real exchange rate misalignments in emerging markets

PurposeAfter the adoption of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) in advanced economies (AEs) there were many studies of monetary spillovers to asset prices in emerging market economies (EMEs) but the extent of contribution of EMEs and AEs, respectively, in real exchange rate (RER) misalignments has not been addressed. This paper addresses the gap in a cross-country panel set-up with country specific controls.Design/methodology/approachFixed effects, pooled mean group (Pesaran et al., 1999) and common correlated effects (Pesaran, 2006) estimations are used to examine the relationship. Multiway clustering is taken into account to ensure robust statistical inferences.FindingsRobust evidence is found for significant monetary spillovers over 1998–2017 in the form of RER overvaluation of EMEs against AEs, especially through the portfolio rebalancing channel. EME RER against the US saw significantly more overvaluation in UMP years indicating greater role of the US in monetary spillovers. However, in the long-run monetary neutrality holds. EMEs did pursue mercantilist and precautionary policies that undervalued their RERs. Precautionary undervaluation is more evident with bilateral EME US RER.Research limitations/implicationsIt may be useful for large EMEs to monitor the impact of foreign portfolio flows on short-run deviations in RER. Export diversification reduces EME mercantilist motives against the US. That AE monetary policy significantly appreciates EME RER has implications for future policy cooperation between EMEs and AEs.Originality/valueTo the best of the author's knowledge such a comparative analysis between AE and EME policy variables on RER misalignment has not been done previously.

Monetary Neutrality with Sticky Prices and Free Entry

Monetary policy is neutral even with fixed prices if free entry determines product variety optimally, as in Dixit and Stiglitz (1977). Entry substitutes for price flexibility in the welfare-based price index when individual prices are sticky. In response to aggregate demand expansions, the intensive (quantity produced of each good) and extensive (number of goods being produced) margins move in offsetting ways, leaving aggregate production unchanged. Price stickiness thus generates deviations from monetary neutrality only in conjunction with entry frictions: when variety is not optimally determined (preferences are not Dixit-Stiglitz), or when entry is subject to sunk costs and lags. Wage stickiness, instead, implies non-neutrality even in the frictionless-entry benchmark.

Cash and the Economy: Evidence from India’s Demonetization*

We analyze a unique episode in the history of monetary economics, the 2016 Indian “demonetization.” This policy made 86% of cash in circulation illegal tender overnight, with new notes gradually introduced over the next several months. We present a model of demonetization where agents hold cash both to satisfy a cash-in-advance constraint and for tax evasion purposes. We test the predictions of the model in the cross-section of Indian districts using several novel data sets including: the geographic distribution of demonetized and new notes for causal inference; night light activity and employment surveys to measure economic activity including in the informal sector; debit/credit cards and e-wallet transactions data; and banking data on deposit and credit growth. Districts experiencing more severe demonetization had relative reductions in economic activity, faster adoption of alternative payment technologies, and lower bank credit growth. The cross-sectional responses cumulate to a contraction in aggregate employment and night lights–based output due to the the cash shortage of at least 2 percentage points and of bank credit of 2 percentage points in 2016Q4 relative to their counterfactual paths, effects that dissipate over the next few months. Our analysis rejects monetary neutrality using a large-scale natural experiment, something that is still rare in the vast literature on the effects of monetary policy.

On the necessity of money in an exchange-constituted economy: the cases of Smith and Marx

The debate over theories of the nature of money has recently been revisited in this Journal. This paper shifts the focus from the stuff that is being positioned as money to the social totality. Credit theorists claim that commodity theories of money imply monetary neutrality and a primacy of real analysis. In contrast, this paper argues based on Marx and Smith that, independently of whether money is a commodity or credit, the necessity of money depends on the constitution of the economy in terms of the relation between production and circulation. If social production is constituted through the exchange between private specialised producers, money is not neutral but essential. For Smith, real analysis is nevertheless meaningful, in that, he treats the spheres of exchange and production separately. By contrast, Marx exposes real analysis as commodity fetishism and stresses the mutually constitutive social relations between money, commodity exchange and capitalist production.

Idea neutralności pieniądza a wybrane nurty ekonomii

Money neutrality and selected currents in economicsThe history of the idea of neutrality of money begins with David Hume. There are at least five types of money neutrality. They could be grouped into neutrality relating to the moment static neutrality and institutional neutrality and neutrality relating to the period dynamic neutrality, superneutrality, monetary neutrality. In mainstream economics, views on neutrality have changed over the years. Monetarism has differentiated views on the neutrality of money. The Austrian school remains sceptical about this simplification of the monetary economy. The theory of the real business cycle accepts any kind of neutrality in the period, and neutrality at the moment is not an important issue for it. Keynesianism focuses on neutrality in the short term and is sceptical about it.

MONETARY NEUTRALITY

We test the long-run neutrality of money proposition for the United States paying attention to the integration and cointegration properties of the variables. We use quarterly data (over the period from 1967:1 to 2014:1) and the new Center for Financial Stability Divisia monetary aggregates. We make a comparison among the narrower monetary aggregates, M1, M2M, MZM, M2, and ALL, and the broad monetary aggregates, M4+, M4-, and M3, and show that there is no statistically significant evidence against long-run monetary neutrality, consistent with both monetarist and Keynesian macroeconomic theory.