Managing the Risks of Negative Interest Rates

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 4-8
Author(s):  
Ioannis Akkizidis ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Great Majority ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Loss Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The acceleration in the issuance of government debt since the global financial crisis has led central bankers to engineer interest rates that are historically low in nominal terms and consistently lower than inflation rates. Although the ostensible aim of this policy is to stimulate economic growth, maintaining negative real rates also goes a long way so that government debt is manageable and will decline in the long run, relative to the size of the economy. Financial institutions hold the great majority of government debt, and their books of retail and corporate loans are expanding briskly at a time when ultra-low interest rates make borrowing especially attractive. Rates paid on deposits are low, in advanced economies, even negative in the euro zone in nominal terms. That helps to offset the reduction in income that banks earn on their lending. Even so, the extreme and unique conditions resulting from persistent negative real interest rates mean that banks must take particular care to manage their interest-rate risk in the context of other risk types and the banks’ profit-and-loss analysis.

Corporate Change After the Global Financial Crisis

2020 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 245-271
Author(s):  
Ivo Arnold
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Business Model ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Corporate Change ◽  
History Of ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Abstract This paper examines the strategic response of the Dutch bank ING to the global financial crisis. Prior to the crisis, ING was a prominent global exponent of direct banking, using the so-called pure play internet (PPI) business model. PPI banking is a hybrid business model that combines features of relationship and transaction banking. Downsides of this business model are that it may lead to overexposure in securities and that it may attract savers that have an above-average sensitivity to interest rates or risk. Using data on the geographical activities of ING, the timeline of relevant events in the history of ING and strategy statements of ING management, we examine how ING has responded to the strategic challenges of the crisis. We conclude that PPI banking should be viewed more as a market penetration strategy than as a full-blown business model that is tenable in the long run. JEL Classification: G01, G21

scholarly journals External Debt Management in Pakistan: A Market-Based Assessment

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (Special Edition) ◽  
pp. 25-51
Author(s):  
Jamshed Y. Uppal
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
External Debt ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Yield Spreads ◽  
Marginal Costs ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Economists typically use multiple indicators to assess the burden of external debt, such as the ratios of the stock of debt to exports and to gross national product, and the ratios of debt service to exports and to government revenue. As opposed to those methodologies, this article examines the Pakistan’s external debt position using a market based approach which analyzes the marginal costs of external debt as indicated by the yields on the country’s Eurobonds and the spreads on the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) traded in the international markets. The results show a sharp decline in the yields on the Pakistani Eurobonds from their peak reached during the global financial crisis (GFC) period and this decline was largely driven by quantitative easing and the resultant low interest rates in the international debt markets. Also, the continued decline in the yields in the more recent period, 2013-2017, was due to strengthening of the county’s borrowing capacity over the period. The analysis also shows that Pakistani yields seem to be converging to yields for other Asian countries, even though that the yield-spreads between Pakistan and others countries are still substantial. In conclusion the decrease in bond yields and CDS spreads may signal that the country’s external debt is currently at sustainable levels.

scholarly journals Monetary policy responses to the global financial crisis: A case study of Egypt

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 65-78
Author(s):  
Monal Abdel-Baki
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Reserve Requirements ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Arab Spring

Among the triggers of the Arab Spring are the declining living standards of the middle and lower income groups. Undoubtedly, the global financial crisis (GFC) is to be partially blamed for weakening the economies of these nations. But was monetary policy ineffective in combating inflation and reducing the meltdown? This paper employs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to assess the effectiveness of the monetary policy in the wake of the GFC. Egypt is selected as a case study due to its overdependence on imported food, the prices of which are relentlessly soaring. The results of the study reveal that the ideal operating targets for the Central Bank of Egypt are the overnight rate and legal reserve requirements. Interest rates are more suitable for long-run impact on the ultimate goals of growth, price stability and job creation. The study culminates in designing a framework to enhance central bankers’ political independence and transparency, which is imperative for nations with high levels of corruption. The study is not only informative to the new Egyptian policymakers, but also to other developing and emerging economies that suffer from symptoms of chronic inflation and looming socio-political turmoil.

Policy will be key to supporting cashless consumption

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Digital Divide ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electronic Transactions ◽  
Opt Out ◽  
The World ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Subject Cashless society transformation. Significance Transacting electronically is quicker and cheaper than using cash, provided the infrastructure is in place to support the transactions. Across the world, the number of electronic transactions and the supporting infrastructure has surged over the last two decades. Card payments averaged 25.3% of GDP in 2016 in the 24 countries the Committee for Payments and Markets Infrastructure covers, up from 12.8% in 2000. Despite this, cash retains a key role, paradoxically even more since the global financial crisis, as ultra-low interest rates in the ten post-crisis years reduced the opportunity cost of holding cash. Impacts All cashless transactions are automatically tracked, forcing consumers to sacrifice more privacy without the ability to ‘opt-out’. An individual’s credit standing will gain importance and may become as key to gaining employment as it is to accessing financial services. There will be a digital divide not only in access to and exclusion from financial services but also the ability to pay. Payments for services could become the fastest-growing category of cashless transactions.

The World Economy: Forecast Summary

2016 ◽  
Vol 238 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
List Type ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Economic Downturns ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Our forecast of world output growth this year is unchanged at 3.0 per cent – the slowest annual growth rate since the 2009 recession. World growth is expected to strengthen to 3.2 per cent next year and 3.6 per cent in 2018, but to remain slower than before the global financial crisis.Downside risks to the forecast include economic downturns in the advanced economies that central banks may lack ammunition to counter, as well as financial instability as a result of low and negative interest rates. These point to a need for more balanced policies to promote expansion, with fiscal policy playing a greater role.With trade growth in recent years already reduced to half its pre-crisis rate, action to resist protectionist pressure and to promote further progress with international economic integration is vital.

scholarly journals Finance, financiers and financial centres: a special issue in honour of Youssef Cassis Introduction

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 283-302
Author(s):  
Carlo Edoardo Altamura ◽  
Martin Daunton
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Social Characteristics ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
Initial Work ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
City Of London ◽  
The Impact

This special issue celebrates the career of Youssef Cassis. The introduction will outline his major contributions from his initial work on social characteristics of the financiers of the City of London, and their relationship with landed aristocrats and industry, through his analysis of a succession of financial centres, the comparative study of big business, the relationship between finance and politics, to his new project on the memory of financial crises. Then, we will draw on Youssef's mode of analysis to consider some of the more pressing issues in the era since the global financial crisis and the impact of Covid-19. We will consider the role of central banks, the challenge of fintech, the impact of low interest rates on inequality, savings and debt, and the potential shift in financial centres and reserve currencies with the rise of China. We will conclude by arguing that the mode of analysis developed by Cassis over his long and productive career has never been more pertinent.

Thrift and Credit Cooperative Lending Channels under Prolonged Low-Interest Rates: The Case of Thailand

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Kovit Charnvitayapong
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
The United States ◽  
Credit Union ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Since the global financial crisis of 2007–08, the United States, Japan, and the European Union (EU) have heavily stimulated their economies with expansionary monetary policy. World finance has been affected by this policy conduct. Interest rates in most open economies were pushed to very low levels and have remained low ever since. Nevertheless, monetary stimulation has not improved the economic situation to a satisfactory level as of the end of 2019. Several studies such as Claudio Borio and Boris Hofmann (2017) and Nasha Ananchotikul and Dulani Seneviratne (2015) attempted to examine the inefficiency of expansionary monetary policy by looking at bank lending channels. Koot and Walker (1980) studied monetary policy effectiveness through credit union lending channels. They found that at first, credit unions responded well to expansionary monetary policy, but after prolonged easy money policy, the response died down. Keywords: Fixed effects, Lending channel, Prolonged low interest rates, Thrift and credit cooperatives (TCCs), Transmission mechanism.

Negative interest rates in the eurozone

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Domenica Tropeano
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Interbank Market ◽  
Negative Rate ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This paper reviews the eurozone's negative rate deposit facility and seeks to explain its rationale. The paper rejects the conventional explanation that the negative rate deposit facility improves the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and contributes to the economic recovery of the area. Instead, the paper argues that the rationale for the policy is to be found in the interbank market. The European unsecured interbank market has malfunctioned since the beginning of the global financial crisis in 2007. The negative policy rate is an extreme attempt to revive that market, but that attempt has failed. Rather than being a conventional policy, as some scholars have argued, the paper maintains that the policy is deeply unconventional because it does not target the overnight interest rate as the interbank market has effectively become irrelevant.

scholarly journals Czy niskie stopy procentowe zmniejszają udział dochodów odsetkowych w bankach spółdzielczych w Polsce?

2018 ◽  
pp. 5-15
Author(s):  
Sylwester Kozak
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Supervision ◽  
Interest Income ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
Net Interest Margin ◽  
Opposite Process ◽  
Cooperative Banks ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The unconventional monetary policy pursued by central banks after the global financial crisis led to the appearance of zero or even negative interest rates. Based on data from the European Central Bank, the Narodowy Bank Polski and the Komisja Nadzoru Finansowego (Polish Financial Supervision Authority) of for the years 2009–2017, it was noticed that the long-term maintenance of ultra-low interest rates contributes to lowering the net interest margin and the share of interest income in the income from banking operations in the euro area countries. There was an opposite process in Poland and other Central and Eastern European countries. Lower interest rates were conducive to increasing lending and increasing the share of net interest income. Large cooperative banks, extending the area of activity to large urban agglomerations pursued a strategy similar to that of commercial banks. Small cooperative banks with limited possibilities of increasing lending increased their share of both interest and non-interest income in much slower pace. The results indicate that for interest income, the non-interest income in large cooperative banks are of complementary character, and in small banks – of substitutive character and are a tool for their income diversification.

scholarly journals Why the COVID-19 Pandemic Could Increase the Corporate Saving Trend in the Long Run

2021 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-44
Author(s):  
Markus Demary ◽  
Stefan Hasenclever ◽  
Michael Hüther
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Equity Capital ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Corporate Saving

AbstractGiven the global trend in corporate saving over the last decades, the COVID-19 crisis raises doubts about the persistence of companies’ saving behaviour due to the losses which have occurred in many companies caused by the isolation of households and by lockdowns. Before the pandemic, corporate net lending activities had been increasing for decades due to various factors ranging from the rise in uncertainty after the global financial crisis to the increased reliance on internal funding for research and development expenditures. In Germany, the rise in corporate saving was accompanied by an increase in equity capital and a reduction in the corporate sector’s reliance on bank loans. This article argues that the coronavirus crisis is most likely to interrupt the trend in corporate saving in the short run due to the decline in companies’ revenues. Nonetheless, similar to the pattern observed in the aftermath of the financial crisis, it seems reasonable to conjecture that the COVID-19 shock will strengthen corporate saving in the long run as companies may attempt to restore their liquidity and equity capital buffers to better prepare for future shocks. This will in turn create downward pressure on real interest rates and complicate the conduct of monetary policy.

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