The World Economy: Forecast Summary

2016 ◽  
Vol 238 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
List Type ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Economic Downturns ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Our forecast of world output growth this year is unchanged at 3.0 per cent – the slowest annual growth rate since the 2009 recession. World growth is expected to strengthen to 3.2 per cent next year and 3.6 per cent in 2018, but to remain slower than before the global financial crisis.Downside risks to the forecast include economic downturns in the advanced economies that central banks may lack ammunition to counter, as well as financial instability as a result of low and negative interest rates. These point to a need for more balanced policies to promote expansion, with fiscal policy playing a greater role.With trade growth in recent years already reduced to half its pre-crisis rate, action to resist protectionist pressure and to promote further progress with international economic integration is vital.

Conclusions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilmaz Akyüz
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Zero Bound

The preceding chapters have examined the deepened integration of emerging and developing economies (EDEs) into the international financial system in the new millennium and their changing vulnerabilities to external financial shocks. They have discussed the role that policies in advanced economies played in this process, including those that culminated in the global financial crisis and the unconventional monetary policy of zero-bound interest rates and quantitative easing adopted in response to the crisis, as well as policies in EDEs themselves....

At a Glance …: The World Economy

2013 ◽  
Vol 225 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Significant Rise ◽  
List Type ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World

The world economy will grow by 3.1 per cent this year, and by 3.6 per cent in 2014: still below longer-term trend.Growth has slowed in key emerging market economies, particularly China, while it remains relatively weak in most advanced economies.A significant rise in the volatility and level of global long-term interest rates is inconvenient for some countries and may slow recovery.

At a Glance…: The world economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 234 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
List Type ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Global Growth

The world economy is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2015, unchanged from our August forecast, and by 3.4 per cent in 2016, marginally weaker than projected last time. Growth in emerging market economies has weakened further; recoveries have remained hesitant in the advanced economies.The projected pickup in global growth next year will be supported by accommodative monetary policies and lower oil prices. Growth should strengthen further in 2017 as recoveries take hold in some key emerging markets. But considerable risks remain.We expect the US Federal Reserve to lead the turn in official interest rates in December, with the Bank of England following next February.

scholarly journals Foreword

10.26458/1831 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 15-19
Author(s):  
Elena GURGU
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial System ◽  
European Central ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Lehman Brothers ◽  
The World ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial System

A globally warning issued in September 2018 by the former president of the European Central Bank, Frenchman Jean-Claude Trichet says the world economy is exactly the way ahead of the economic crisis of 2008. He said that too many debts have done the global financial system as vulnerable as it was ten years ago in September 2008, when the American bank Lehman Brothers collapsed. Excessive indebtedness in advanced economies was a key factor in triggering the global financial crisis of 2007 and 2008, Jean-Claude Trichet said in an interview with AFP.Currently, debt growth in advanced countries, particularly in the private sector, has slowed, but this slowdown has been offset by an acceleration in emerging-nation debt growth. This makes the entire world financial system at least the same vulnerable as it was in 2008......

Negative interest rates in the eurozone

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Domenica Tropeano
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Interbank Market ◽  
Negative Rate ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This paper reviews the eurozone's negative rate deposit facility and seeks to explain its rationale. The paper rejects the conventional explanation that the negative rate deposit facility improves the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and contributes to the economic recovery of the area. Instead, the paper argues that the rationale for the policy is to be found in the interbank market. The European unsecured interbank market has malfunctioned since the beginning of the global financial crisis in 2007. The negative policy rate is an extreme attempt to revive that market, but that attempt has failed. Rather than being a conventional policy, as some scholars have argued, the paper maintains that the policy is deeply unconventional because it does not target the overnight interest rate as the interbank market has effectively become irrelevant.

scholarly journals Czy niskie stopy procentowe zmniejszają udział dochodów odsetkowych w bankach spółdzielczych w Polsce?

2018 ◽  
pp. 5-15
Author(s):  
Sylwester Kozak
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Supervision ◽  
Interest Income ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
Net Interest Margin ◽  
Opposite Process ◽  
Cooperative Banks ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The unconventional monetary policy pursued by central banks after the global financial crisis led to the appearance of zero or even negative interest rates. Based on data from the European Central Bank, the Narodowy Bank Polski and the Komisja Nadzoru Finansowego (Polish Financial Supervision Authority) of for the years 2009–2017, it was noticed that the long-term maintenance of ultra-low interest rates contributes to lowering the net interest margin and the share of interest income in the income from banking operations in the euro area countries. There was an opposite process in Poland and other Central and Eastern European countries. Lower interest rates were conducive to increasing lending and increasing the share of net interest income. Large cooperative banks, extending the area of activity to large urban agglomerations pursued a strategy similar to that of commercial banks. Small cooperative banks with limited possibilities of increasing lending increased their share of both interest and non-interest income in much slower pace. The results indicate that for interest income, the non-interest income in large cooperative banks are of complementary character, and in small banks – of substitutive character and are a tool for their income diversification.

Managing the Risks of Negative Interest Rates

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 4-8
Author(s):  
Ioannis Akkizidis ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Great Majority ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Loss Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The acceleration in the issuance of government debt since the global financial crisis has led central bankers to engineer interest rates that are historically low in nominal terms and consistently lower than inflation rates. Although the ostensible aim of this policy is to stimulate economic growth, maintaining negative real rates also goes a long way so that government debt is manageable and will decline in the long run, relative to the size of the economy. Financial institutions hold the great majority of government debt, and their books of retail and corporate loans are expanding briskly at a time when ultra-low interest rates make borrowing especially attractive. Rates paid on deposits are low, in advanced economies, even negative in the euro zone in nominal terms. That helps to offset the reduction in income that banks earn on their lending. Even so, the extreme and unique conditions resulting from persistent negative real interest rates mean that banks must take particular care to manage their interest-rate risk in the context of other risk types and the banks’ profit-and-loss analysis.

Financialization and state capitalism in Hungary after the Global Financial Crisis

2021 ◽  
pp. 102452942110032
Author(s):  
David Karas
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Active Role ◽  
The State ◽  
State Capitalism ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Role Of The State ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Whereas the active role of the state in steering financialization is consensual in advanced economies, the financialization of emerging market economies is usually examined through the prism of dependency: this downplays the domestic political functions of financialization and the agency of the state. With the consolidation of state capitalist regimes in the semi-periphery after the Global Financial Crisis, different interpretations emerged – some linking state capitalism with de-financialization, others with coercive projects deepening it. Preferring a more granular and multi-dimensional approach, I analyse how different facets of financialization might represent political risks or opportunities for state capitalist projects: Based on the Hungarian example, I first explain how the constitution of a ‘financial vertical’ after 2010 inaugurated a new mode of statecraft. Second, I show how the financial vertical enabled rentier bargains between state and society after 2015 by deepening the financialization of social policy and housing in response to a looming crisis of competitiveness.

Australian Biotechnology: A 10-Year Study of Investor Performance

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter L. Molloy ◽  
Lester W. Johnson ◽  
Michael Gilding
Keyword(s):  
Drug Development ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Critical Mass ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Compound Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
Investor Returns ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

A recent study assessed the investor performance of the Australian drug development biotech (DDB) sector over a 15-year period from 2003 to 2018. The current study builds on that research and extends the analysis to 2020, using a 10-year period starting 2010, to exclude the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008/09. Based on a value-weighted portfolio of all 41 DDB firms, the overall sector delivered a negative annualized return of -4.1%. Individual firm performance was also assessed using the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in share price over the period as a measure of investor outcomes. On this basis 68% of firms produced negative CAGRs over the period, and of the 32% of firms that produced positive CAGRs, six firms produced CAGRs greater than 20% per annum and in three cases of recently-listed firms, the CAGR’s were greater than 50%. Overall however, the sector overall delivered very poor investor returns and despite a relatively large number of listed biotech firms, Australian biotechnology continues to be small and weak in terms of its contribution to global biotechnology industrialization. As such it lacks the critical mass to grow a robust bioeconomy based on drug development, which remains the standard-bearer of biotechnology industrialization.

Determinants of Spot and Forward Interest Rates in Brazil in an International Liquidity Scenario: An Econometric Analysis for the Period 2007-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Pedro Raffy Vartanian ◽  
Sérgio Gozzi Citro ◽  
Paulo Rogério Scarano
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
International Liquidity ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
International Financial Crises ◽  
International Financial Crisis ◽  
Level Of Activity ◽  
Systemic Crisis ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Over the last 25 years, Brazil has been among the countries with the highest interest rates globally. High interest rates have been necessary during several recent times, such as in the period from 1997 to 1999, due to the repeated international financial crises that have plagued the country. From 1999, a sustained path of interest rate reduction begun. With the outbreak of the 2008 international financial crisis, the Brazilian monetary authorities promoted a new round of falling domestic interest rates in response to the recessive effects and the threat of a systemic crisis that could hang over the national financial system. In 2012, a set of interventionist nature policies led to a decrease in the Selic rate. Thus, looking at the last 25 years, it appears that many factors have started to influence the trajectory of Brazilian interest rates. In this context, the present work aims to identify, based on empirical research, the determinants of spot and future interest rates. As a methodology, the research uses a multivariate econometric vector autoregressive model (VAR) with error correction (VEC). The analysis covers the years 2017 to 2019, corresponding to the period in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008. The results evidence that both the spot rate and the DI future can be determined by the fluctuations in the level of inflation and by the level of activity and the real exchange rate, in addition to the effects of the lagged variables themselves.

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