scholarly journals Confidence as a Driver of Private Investment in Selected Countries of Central America

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (270) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Janada ◽  
Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Central America ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Unit Labor Costs ◽  
Global Shocks ◽  
Business Confidence

This paper argues that structural weaknesses may make private investment particularly sensitive to business confidence relative to other traditional investment drivers and global shocks. It gauges the importance of confidence over recent years in selected countries in Central America, including Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Guatemala. Using a vector error correction model to carry out the empirical work, a system representing global activity and the domestic economy, including a set of investment drivers (interest rates, unit labor costs, and confidence) is analyzed. The findings suggest that confidence has been, on average, the most important driver of investment in these countries, exceeded only by global factors. Since confidence, arguably, can be influenced by policymakers’ decisions, structural reforms to improve the business climate and reduce uncertainty play an important role in promoting investment and economic growth.

Business confidence mars Chile investment outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commodity Export ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
Export Industries ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of falling investment. Significance Since 2013, investment has been declining in many Latin American countries in a trend related to lower commodity prices. However, in Chile, the contraction has been particularly marked and is also attributed to a loss of business confidence caused by domestic political factors. Impacts An expected increase in international interest rates will play against higher private investment next year. Increased competitiveness as a result of peso depreciation may boost investment in some non-commodity export industries. Local businesses, accustomed to Chile's economic and political stability, will find it difficult to adjust to increased uncertainty.

scholarly journals Crowding-out Hypothesis in a Vector Error Correction Framework: A Case Study of Pakistan

2001 ◽  
Vol 40 (4II) ◽  
pp. 633-650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kalim Hyder
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
The Public ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Development Expenditure ◽  
Negative Effect

Under the umbrella of the IMF stabilisation programmes, Pakistan has pursued a policy of fiscal consolidation since 1988. A look at the budget deficit from 1988 onwards reveals that the policy has only been marginally successful. Even this fragile accomplishment of the Fund-based programme has been achieved at a much greater cost: the reduction in budget deficit has only been materialised because of the curtailment of development expenditure component of total fiscal outlays [Social Policy and Development Centre (2001)]. Economic theory suggests that development expenditure component of fiscal outlays, which also equals net investment by the public sector,1 has a significant relationship with both the rate of private investment and economic growth. If public investment increases, fewer funds will be available for private investment. Competition will thereby drive the interest rates up leading to lower level of private investment. Neo-classicals believe that this process will only result in a redistribution of gross national between the public and the private sector and the rate of economic growth will remain intact. On the other hand, Keynesians argue that the multiplier effect of higher public spending will be larger as compared to the induced negative effect of reduced private investment on the rate of economic activity and, therefore, gross national product will increase.

Economic Turmoil in Islamic Banking Investment

ETIKONOMI ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Budiandru Budiandru ◽  
Sari Yuniarti
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Investment Financing ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Operational Activities

Investment financing is one of the operational activities of Islamic banking to encourage the real sector. This study aims to analyze the effect of economic turmoil on investment financing, analyze the response to investment financing, and analyze each variable's contribution in explaining the diversity of investment financing. This study uses monthly time series data from 2009 to 2020 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis. The results show that the exchange rate, inflation, and interest rates significantly affect Islamic banking investment financing in the long term. The response to investment financing is the fastest to achieve stability when it responds to shocks to the composite stock price index. Inflation is the most significant contribution in explaining diversity in investment financing. Islamic banking should increase the proportion of funding for investment. Customers can have a larger business scale to encourage economic growth, with investment financing increasing.JEL Classification: E22, G11, G24How to Cite:Budiandru., & Yuniarti, S. (2020). Economic Turmoil in Islamic Banking Investment. Etikonomi: Jurnal Ekonomi, 19(2), xx – xx. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v19i2.17206.

Confidence in the future as an economic development factor

2021 ◽  
pp. 54-62
Author(s):  
V. E. Dementyev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Capacity Utilization ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Development Factor ◽  
Urgent Task ◽  
The Future ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
Existing Structure ◽  
Economic Well Being

The level of confidence in the future is considered as one of the important characteristics of the quality of life. Social and economic well-being depends on what expectations prevail in a society. It is shown that the reduction of interest rates on loans is not a sufficient condition for overcoming investment pessimism. It is indicated that with low capacity utilization, cheap loans can lead to stagnation of industries, contributing to the preservation of the existing structure of used capacities. The quality of coordination of economic activity is considered as one of the factors of business confidence in the future. It is noted that the competitiveness of existing industries has a great impact on the formation of new industries in the economy. It is emphasized that the transition to the system of interactive strategic planning remains an urgent task for our country.

scholarly journals Revisiting the Dynamic Linkages of Treasury Bond Yields for the BRICS: A Forecasting Analysis

Forecasting ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-129
Author(s):  
Stelios Bekiros ◽  
Christos Avdoulas
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Parameter Instability ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Dynamic Linkages

We examined the dynamic linkages among money market interest rates in the so-called “BRICS” countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) by using weekly data of the overnight, one-, three-, and six- months, as well as of one year, Treasury bills rates covering the period from January 2005 to August 2019. A long-run relationship among interest rates was established by employing the Vector Error Correction modeling (VECM), which revealed the validation of the Expectation Hypothesis Theory (EH) of the term structure of interest rates, taking into account long-run deviations from equilibrium and inherent nonlinearities. We unveiled short-run dynamic adjustments for the term structure of the BRICS, subject to regime switches. We then used Markov Switching Vector Error Correction models (MS-VECM) to forecast them dynamically during an out-of-sample period of May 2016 through August 2019. The MSIH-VECM forecasts were found to be superior to the VECM approaches. The novelty of our paper is mainly due to the exploration of the possibility of parameter instability as a crucial factor, which might explain the rejection of the restricted version of the cointegration space, and on the dynamic out-of-sample forecasts of the term structure over a more recent time span in order to assess further the usefulness of our nonlinear MS-VECM characterization of the term structure, capturing the effects of the global and domestic financial crisis.

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