scholarly journals Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (19) ◽  
pp. 9451-9472 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Eyring ◽  
I. Cionni ◽  
G. E. Bodeker ◽  
A. J. Charlton-Perez ◽  
D. E. Kinnison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Full Recovery ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. Projections of stratospheric ozone from a suite of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have been analyzed. In addition to a reference simulation where anthropogenic halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) vary with time, sensitivity simulations with either ODS or GHG concentrations fixed at 1960 levels were performed to disaggregate the drivers of projected ozone changes. These simulations were also used to assess the two distinct milestones of ozone returning to historical values (ozone return dates) and ozone no longer being influenced by ODSs (full ozone recovery). The date of ozone returning to historical values does not indicate complete recovery from ODSs in most cases, because GHG-induced changes accelerate or decelerate ozone changes in many regions. In the upper stratosphere where CO2-induced stratospheric cooling increases ozone, full ozone recovery is projected to not likely have occurred by 2100 even though ozone returns to its 1980 or even 1960 levels well before (~2025 and 2040, respectively). In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone decreases continuously from 1960 to 2100 due to projected increases in tropical upwelling, while by around 2040 it is already very likely that full recovery from the effects of ODSs has occurred, although ODS concentrations are still elevated by this date. In the midlatitude lower stratosphere the evolution differs from that in the tropics, and rather than a steady decrease in ozone, first a decrease in ozone is simulated from 1960 to 2000, which is then followed by a steady increase through the 21st century. Ozone in the midlatitude lower stratosphere returns to 1980 levels by ~2045 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and by ~2055 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and full ozone recovery is likely reached by 2100 in both hemispheres. Overall, in all regions except the tropical lower stratosphere, full ozone recovery from ODSs occurs significantly later than the return of total column ozone to its 1980 level. The latest return of total column ozone is projected to occur over Antarctica (~2045–2060) whereas it is not likely that full ozone recovery is reached by the end of the 21st century in this region. Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels well before polar stratospheric halogen loading does so (~2025–2030 for total column ozone, cf. 2050–2070 for Cly+60×Bry) and it is likely that full recovery of total column ozone from the effects of ODSs has occurred by ~2035. In contrast to the Antarctic, by 2100 Arctic total column ozone is projected to be above 1960 levels, but not in the fixed GHG simulation, indicating that climate change plays a significant role.

scholarly journals Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 11659-11710 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Eyring ◽  
I. Cionni ◽  
G. E. Bodeker ◽  
A. J. Charlton-Perez ◽  
D. E. Kinnison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Full Recovery ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. Projections of stratospheric ozone from a suite of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have been analyzed. In addition to a reference simulation where anthropogenic halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) vary with time, sensitivity simulations with either ODSs or GHGs concentrations fixed at 1960 levels were performed to disaggregate the drivers of projected ozone changes. These simulations were also used to assess the two distinct milestones of ozone returning to historical values (ozone return dates) and ozone no longer being influenced by ODSs (full ozone recovery). These two milestones are different. The date of ozone returning to historical values does not indicate complete recovery from ODSs in most cases, because GHG induced changes accelerate or decelerate ozone changes in many regions. In the upper stratosphere where GHG induced stratospheric cooling increases ozone, full ozone recovery has not likely occurred by 2100 while ozone returns to its 1980 or even 1960 levels well before (~2025 and 2040, respectively). In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone decreases continuously from 1960 to 2100 due to projected increases in tropical upwelling, while by around 2040 it is already very likely that full recovery from the effects of ODSs has occurred, although ODS concentrations are still elevated by this date. In the lower midlatitude stratosphere the evolution differs from that in the tropics, and rather than a steady decrease of ozone, first a decrease of ozone is simulated between 1960 and 2000, which is then followed by a steady increase throughout the 21st century. Ozone in the lower stratosphere midlatitudes returns to its 1980 levels ${\\sim}$2045 in the NH and ~2055 in the SH, and full ozone recovery is likely reached by 2100 in both hemispheres. Overall, in all regions except the tropical lower stratosphere, full ozone recovery from ODSs occurs significantly later than the return of total column ozone to its 1980 level. The latest return of total column ozone is projected to occur over Antarctica (~2050–2060) whereas it is not likely that full ozone recovery is reached by the end of the 21st century in this region. Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels well before Cly does so (~2020–2030) and while it is likely that full recovery of ozone from the effects of ODSs has occurred by ~2035, at no time before 2100 is it very likely that full recovery has occurred. In contrast to the Antarctic, by 2100 Arctic total column ozone is projected to be above 1960 levels, but not in the fixed GHG simulation, indicating that climate change plays a significant role.

scholarly journals The sensitivity of stratospheric ozone changes through the 21st century to N<sub>2</sub>O and CH<sub>4</sub>

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 11309-11317 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. E. Revell ◽  
G. E. Bodeker ◽  
P. E. Huck ◽  
B. E. Williamson ◽  
E. Rozanov
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Reactive Nitrogen ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. Through the 21st century, anthropogenic emissions of the greenhouse gases N2O and CH4 are projected to increase, thus increasing their atmospheric concentrations. Consequently, reactive nitrogen species produced from N2O and reactive hydrogen species produced from CH4 are expected to play an increasingly important role in determining stratospheric ozone concentrations. Eight chemistry-climate model simulations were performed to assess the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone to different emissions scenarios for N2O and CH4. Global-mean total column ozone increases through the 21st century in all eight simulations as a result of CO2-induced stratospheric cooling and decreasing stratospheric halogen concentrations. Larger N2O concentrations were associated with smaller ozone increases, due to reactive nitrogen-mediated ozone destruction. In the simulation with the largest N2O increase, global-mean total column ozone increased by 4.3 DU through the 21st century, compared with 10.0 DU in the simulation with the smallest N2O increase. In contrast, larger CH4 concentrations were associated with larger ozone increases; global-mean total column ozone increased by 16.7 DU through the 21st century in the simulation with the largest CH4 concentrations and by 4.4 DU in the simulation with the lowest CH4 concentrations. CH4 leads to ozone loss in the upper and lower stratosphere by increasing the rate of reactive hydrogen-mediated ozone loss cycles, however in the lower stratosphere and troposphere, CH4 leads to ozone increases due to photochemical smog-type chemistry. In addition to this mechanism, total column ozone increases due to H2O-induced cooling of the stratosphere, and slowing of the chlorine-catalyzed ozone loss cycles due to an increased rate of the CH4 + Cl reaction. Stratospheric column ozone through the 21st century exhibits a near-linear response to changes in N2O and CH4 surface concentrations, which provides a simple parameterization for the ozone response to changes in these gases.

scholarly journals Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting ozone layer recovery

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 1379-1394 ◽  
Author(s):  
William T. Ball ◽  
Justin Alsing ◽  
Daniel J. Mortlock ◽  
Johannes Staehelin ◽  
Joanna D. Haigh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Ozone Layer ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. Ozone forms in the Earth's atmosphere from the photodissociation of molecular oxygen, primarily in the tropical stratosphere. It is then transported to the extratropics by the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), forming a protective ozone layer around the globe. Human emissions of halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) led to a decline in stratospheric ozone until they were banned by the Montreal Protocol, and since 1998 ozone in the upper stratosphere is rising again, likely the recovery from halogen-induced losses. Total column measurements of ozone between the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere indicate that the ozone layer has stopped declining across the globe, but no clear increase has been observed at latitudes between 60° S and 60° N outside the polar regions (60–90°). Here we report evidence from multiple satellite measurements that ozone in the lower stratosphere between 60° S and 60° N has indeed continued to decline since 1998. We find that, even though upper stratospheric ozone is recovering, the continuing downward trend in the lower stratosphere prevails, resulting in a downward trend in stratospheric column ozone between 60° S and 60° N. We find that total column ozone between 60° S and 60° N appears not to have decreased only because of increases in tropospheric column ozone that compensate for the stratospheric decreases. The reasons for the continued reduction of lower stratospheric ozone are not clear; models do not reproduce these trends, and thus the causes now urgently need to be established.

scholarly journals Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 17341-17367
Author(s):  
N. P. Gillett ◽  
H. Akiyoshi ◽  
S. Bekki ◽  
V. Eyring ◽  
R. Garcia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. Three recently-completed sets of simulations of multiple chemistry-climate models with greenhouse gases only, with all anthropogenic forcings, and with anthropogenic and natural forcings, allow the causes of observed stratospheric changes to be quantitatively assessed using detection and attribution techniques. The total column ozone response to halogenated ozone depleting substances and to natural forcings is detectable and consistent in models and observations. However, the total ozone response to greenhouse gases in the models and observations appears to be inconsistent, which may be due to the models' inability to properly simulate tropospheric ozone changes. In the middle and upper stratosphere, simulated and observed SBUV/SAGE ozone changes are broadly consistent, and separate anthropogenic and natural responses are detectable in observations. The influence of ozone depleting substances and natural forcings can also be detected separately in observed lower stratospheric temperature, and the magnitudes of the simulated and observed responses to these forcings and to greenhouse gas changes are found to be consistent. In the mid and upper stratosphere the simulated natural and combined anthropogenic responses are detectable and consistent with observations, but the influences of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances could not be separately detected in our analysis.

scholarly journals Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 599-609 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. P. Gillett ◽  
H. Akiyoshi ◽  
S. Bekki ◽  
P. Braesicke ◽  
V. Eyring ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. Three recently-completed sets of simulations of multiple chemistry-climate models with greenhouse gases only, with all anthropogenic forcings, and with anthropogenic and natural forcings, allow the causes of observed stratospheric changes to be quantitatively assessed using detection and attribution techniques. The total column ozone response to halogenated ozone depleting substances and to natural forcings is detectable in observations, but the total column ozone response to greenhouse gas changes is not separately detectable. In the middle and upper stratosphere, simulated and observed SBUV/SAGE ozone changes are broadly consistent, and separate anthropogenic and natural responses are detectable in observations. The influence of ozone depleting substances and natural forcings can also be detected separately in observed lower stratospheric temperature, and the magnitudes of the simulated and observed responses to these forcings and to greenhouse gas changes are found to be consistent. In the mid and upper stratosphere the simulated natural and combined anthropogenic responses are detectable and consistent with observations, but the influences of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances could not be separately detected in our analysis.

Comparison of observed lower stratospheric ozone changes with free-running chemistry climate models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Ball ◽  
Gabriel Chiodo ◽  
Marta Abalos ◽  
Justin Alsing
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Free Running ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Tropics

&lt;p&gt;The ozone layer was damaged last century due to the emissions of long-lived ozone depleting substances (ODSs). Following the Montreal Protocol that banned ODSs, a reduction in total column ozone (TCO) ceased in the late 1990s. Today, ozone above 32&amp;#8201;km displays a clear recovery. Nevertheless, a clear detection of TCO recovery in observations remains elusive, and there is mounting evidence of decreasing ozone in the lower stratosphere (below 24 km) in the tropics out to the mid-latitudes (30-60&amp;#176;). Chemistry climate models (CCMs) predict that lower stratospheric ozone will decrease in the tropics by 2100, but not at mid-latitudes.&lt;br&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;br&gt;Here, we compare the CCMVal-2 models, which informed the WMO 2014 ozone assessment and show similar tendencies to more recent CCMI data, with observations over 1998-2016. We find that over this period, modelled ozone declines in the tropics are similar to those seen in observations and are likely driven by increased tropical upwelling. Conversely, CCMs generally show ozone increases in the mid-latitude lower stratosphere where observations show a negative tendency. We provide evidence from JRA-55 and ERA-Interim reanalyses indicating that mid-latitude trends are due to enhanced mixing between the tropics and extratropics, in agreement with other studies.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Additional analysis of temperature and water vapour further supports our findings. Overall, our results suggest that expected changes in large scale circulation from increasing greenhouse gases may now already be underway. While model projections suggest extra-tropical ozone should recover by 2100, our study raises questions about their ability to simulate lower stratospheric changes in this region.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals The sensitivity of stratospheric ozone changes through the 21st century to N<sub>2</sub>O and CH<sub>4</sub>

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 17583-17605 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. E. Revell ◽  
G. E. Bodeker ◽  
P. E. Huck ◽  
B. E. Williamson ◽  
E. Rozanov
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Reactive Nitrogen ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. Through the 21st century, anthropogenic emissions of the greenhouse gases N2O and CH4 are projected to increase, thus increasing their atmospheric concentrations. Consequently, reactive nitrogen species produced from N2O and reactive hydrogen species produced from CH4 are expected to play an increasingly important role in determining stratospheric ozone concentrations. Eight chemistry-climate model simulations were performed to assess the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone to different emissions scenarios for N2O and CH4. Increases in reactive nitrogen-mediated ozone loss resulting from increasing N2O concentrations lead to a decrease in global-mean total column ozone. Increasing CH4 concentrations increase the rate of reactive hydrogen-mediated ozone loss in the upper stratosphere. Overall however, increasing CH4 concentrations lead to an increase in global-mean total column ozone. Stratospheric column ozone over the 21st century exhibits a near-linear response to changes in N2O and CH4 surface concentrations, which provides a simple parameterization for the ozone response to changes in these gases.

scholarly journals Improving Antarctic Total Ozone Projections by a Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Ensemble Regression

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (12) ◽  
pp. 3959-3976 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexey Yu. Karpechko ◽  
Douglas Maraun ◽  
Veronika Eyring
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Process Oriented ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Ensemble Regression

Abstract Accurate projections of stratospheric ozone are required because ozone changes affect exposure to ultraviolet radiation and tropospheric climate. Unweighted multimodel ensemble-mean (uMMM) projections from chemistry–climate models (CCMs) are commonly used to project ozone in the twenty-first century, when ozone-depleting substances are expected to decline and greenhouse gases are expected to rise. Here, the authors address the question of whether Antarctic total column ozone projections in October given by the uMMM of CCM simulations can be improved by using a process-oriented multiple diagnostic ensemble regression (MDER) method. This method is based on the correlation between simulated future ozone and selected key processes relevant for stratospheric ozone under present-day conditions. The regression model is built using an algorithm that selects those process-oriented diagnostics that explain a significant fraction of the spread in the projected ozone among the CCMs. The regression model with observed diagnostics is then used to predict future ozone and associated uncertainty. The precision of the authors’ method is tested in a pseudoreality; that is, the prediction is validated against an independent CCM projection used to replace unavailable future observations. The tests show that MDER has higher precision than uMMM, suggesting an improvement in the estimate of future Antarctic ozone. The authors’ method projects that Antarctic total ozone will return to 1980 values at around 2055 with the 95% prediction interval ranging from 2035 to 2080. This reduces the range of return dates across the ensemble of CCMs by about a decade and suggests that the earliest simulated return dates are unlikely.

scholarly journals Trend Quality Ozone from NPP OMPS: the Version 2 Processing

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard McPeters ◽  
Stacey Frith ◽  
Natalya Kramarova ◽  
Jerry Ziemke ◽  
Gordon Labow
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Scattered Light ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Average Bias ◽  
Latitude Zone ◽  
Zonal Average ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. A version 2 processing of data from two ozone monitoring instruments on Suomi NPP, the OMPS nadir ozone mapper and the OMPS nadir ozone profiler, has now been completed. The previously released data were useful for many purposes but were not suitable for use in ozone trend analysis. In this processing, instrument artifacts have been identified and corrected, an improved scattered light correction and wavelength registration have been applied, and soft calibration techniques were implemented to produce a calibration consistent with data from the series of SBUV/2 instruments. The result is a high quality ozone time series suitable for trend analysis. Total column ozone data from the OMPS nadir mapper now agree with data from the SBUV/2 instrument on NOAA 19 with a zonal average bias of −0.2 % over the 60° S to 60° N latitude zone. Differences are somewhat larger between OMPS nadir profiler and N19 total column ozone, with an average difference of −1.1  % over the 60° S to 60° N latitude zone and a residual seasonal variation of about 2 % at latitudes higher than about 50 degrees. For the profile retrieval, zonal average ozone in the upper stratosphere (between 2.5 and 4 hPa) agrees with that from NOAA 19 within ±3 % and an average bias of −1.1 %. In the lower stratosphere (between 25 and 40 hPa) agreement is within ±3 % with an average bias of +1.1 %. Tropospheric ozone produced by subtracting stratospheric ozone measured by the OMPS limb profiler from total column ozone measured by the nadir mapper is consistent with tropospheric ozone produced by subtracting stratospheric ozone from MLS from total ozone from the OMI instrument on Aura. The agreement of tropospheric ozone is within 10 % in most locations.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the simulation of the edge of the Antarctic vortex by chemistry-climate models

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 20155-20192 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Struthers ◽  
G. E. Bodeker ◽  
J. Austin ◽  
S. Bekki ◽  
I. Cionni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Measurement Data ◽  
Chemical Processes ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Dynamical Structure ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. The dynamical barrier to meridional mixing at the edge of the Antarctic spring stratospheric vortex is examined. Diagnostics are presented which demonstrate the link between the shape of the meridional mixing barrier at the edge of the vortex and the meridional gradients in total column ozone across the vortex edge. Results derived from reanalysis and measurement data sets are compared with equivalent diagnostics from five coupled chemistry-climate models to test how well the models capture the interaction between the dynamical structure of the stratospheric vortex and the chemical processes occurring within the vortex. Results show that the accuracy of the simulation of the dynamical vortex edge varies widely amongst the models studied here. This affects the ability of the models to simulate the large observed meridional gradients in total column ozone. Three of the models in this study simulated the inner edge of the vortex to be more than 7° closer to the pole than observed. This is expected to have important implications for how well these models simulate the extent of severe springtime ozone loss that occurs within the Antarctic vortex.

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