scholarly journals Projected change in atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea towards 2020

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 2615-2629 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Geels ◽  
K. M. Hansen ◽  
J. H. Christensen ◽  
C. Ambelas Skjøth ◽  
T. Ellermann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Nitrogen Deposition ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Ecological Status ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Ship Traffic ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Eu

Abstract. The ecological status of the Baltic Sea has for many years been affected by the high input of both waterborne and airborne nutrients. The focus here is on the airborne input of nitrogen (N) and the projected changes in this input, assuming the new National Emission Ceilings directive (NEC-II), currently under negotiation in the EU, is fulfilled towards the year 2020. With a set of scenario simulations, the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) has been used to estimate the development in nitrogen deposition based on present day meteorology combined with present day (2007) or future (2020) anthropogenic emissions. Applying a so-called tagging method in the DEHM model, the contribution from ship traffic and from each of the nine countries with coastlines to the Baltic Sea has been assessed. The annual deposition to the Baltic Sea is estimated to 203 k tonnes N for the present day scenario (2007) and 165 k tonnes N in the 2020 scenario, giving a projected reduction of 38 k tonnes N in the annual load in 2020. This equals a decline in nitrogen deposition of 19%. The results from 20 model runs using the tagging method show that of the total nitrogen deposition in 2007, 52% came from emissions within the bordering countries. By 2020, this is projected to decrease to 48%. For some countries the projected decrease in nitrogen deposition arising from the implementation of the NEC-II directive will contribute significantly to compliance with the reductions agreed on in the provisional reduction targets of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. This underlines the importance of including projections like the current in future updates of the Baltic Sea Action Plan.

scholarly journals Projected change in atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea towards 2020

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 21533-21567 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Geels ◽  
K. M. Hansen ◽  
J. H. Christensen ◽  
C. Ambelas Skjøth ◽  
T. Ellermann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Ecological Status ◽  
N Deposition ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Total N ◽  
Ship Traffic ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract. The ecological status of the Baltic Sea has for many years been affected by the high input of both waterborne and airborne nutrients. The focus is here on the airborne input of nitrogen (N) and the projected changes in this input, assuming the new National Emission Ceilings directive (NEC-II), currently under negotiation in the EU, is fulfilled towards the year 2020. The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) has been used to estimate the development in N deposition based on present day meteorology combined with present day (2007) or future (2020) anthropogenic emissions. By using a so called tagging method in the DEHM model, the contribution from ship traffic and from each of the nine countries with coastlines to the Baltic Sea has been assessed. The annual deposition to the Baltic Sea is estimated to be 203 k tonnes N for the present day scenario (2007) and 165 k tonnes N in the 2020 scenario, giving a projected reduction of 38 k tonnes N in the annual load in 2020. This equals a decline in N deposition of 19 %. The results from 20 model runs using the tagging method show that of the total N deposition in 2007, 52 % came from emissions within the bordering countries. By 2020 this is projected to decrease to 48 %. For some countries the projected decrease in N deposition arising from the implementation of the NEC-II directive will be a considerable part of the reductions agreed on in the provisional reduction targets of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. This underlines the importance of including projections like the current in future updates of the Baltic Sea Action Plan.

scholarly journals Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in the period 1995–2006

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (19) ◽  
pp. 10057-10069 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Bartnicki ◽  
V. S. Semeena ◽  
H. Fagerli
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Nitrogen Deposition ◽  
Total Nitrogen ◽  
Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition ◽  
Atmospheric Nitrogen ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Ship Traffic ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Baltic Sea Basin

Abstract. The EMEP/MSC-W model has been used to compute atmospheric nitrogen deposition into the Baltic Sea basin for the period of 12 yr: 1995–2006. The level of annual total nitrogen deposition into the Baltic Sea basin has changed from 230 Gg N in 1995 to 199 Gg N in 2006, decreasing 13 %. This value corresponds well with the total nitrogen emission reduction (11 %) in the HELCOM Contracting Parties. However, inter-annual variability of nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea basin is relatively large, ranging from −13 % to +17 % of the averaged value. It is mainly caused by the changing meteorological conditions and especially precipitation in the considered period. The calculated monthly deposition pattern is similar for most of the years showing maxima in the autumn months October and November. The source allocation budget for atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea basin was calculated for each year of the period 1997–2006. The main emission sources contributing to total nitrogen deposition are: Germany 18–22 %, Poland 11–13 % and Denmark 8–11 %. There is also a significant contribution from distant sources like the United Kingdom 6–9 %, as well as from the international ship traffic on the Baltic Sea 4–5 %.

scholarly journals Toward the Baltic Sea Socioeconomic Action Plan

AMBIO ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (11) ◽  
pp. 1377-1388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markku Ollikainen ◽  
Berit Hasler ◽  
Katarina Elofsson ◽  
Antti Iho ◽  
Hans E. Andersen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Nutrient Loading ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Ecological Status ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Policy Alternatives ◽  
Baltic Sea Region ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper analyzes the main weaknesses and key avenues for improvement of nutrient policies in the Baltic Sea region. HELCOM’s Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), accepted by the Baltic Sea countries in 2007, was based on an innovative ecological modeling of the Baltic Sea environment and addressed the impact of the combination of riverine loading and transfer of nutrients on the ecological status of the sea and its sub-basins. We argue, however, that the assigned country-specific targets of nutrient loading do not reach the same level of sophistication, because they are not based on careful economic and policy analysis. We show an increasing gap between the state-of-the-art policy alternatives and the existing command-and-control-based approaches to the protection of the Baltic Sea environment and outline the most important steps for a Baltic Sea Socioeconomic Action Plan. It is time to raise the socioeconomic design of nutrient policies to the same level of sophistication as the ecological foundations of the BSAP.

scholarly journals Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in the period 1995–2006

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1803-1834 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Bartnicki ◽  
V. S. Semeena ◽  
H. Fagerli
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Nitrogen Deposition ◽  
Total Nitrogen ◽  
Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition ◽  
Atmospheric Nitrogen ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Ship Traffic ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Baltic Sea Basin

Abstract. The EMEP Unified model has been used to compute atmospheric nitrogen deposition into the Baltic Sea basin for the period of 12 years: 1995–2006. The level of annual total nitrogen deposition into the Baltic Sea basin has changed from 230 Gg N in 1995 to 199 Gg N in 2006, decreasing 13%. This value corresponds well with the total nitrogen emission reduction (11%) in the HELCOM Contracting Parties. However, inter-annual variability of nitrogen depositions to the Baltic Sea basin is relatively large, ranging from −13% to +17% of the averaged value. It is mainly caused by the changing meteorological conditions and especially precipitation in the considered period. The calculated monthly depositions are similar for most of the years showing maxima in the autumn months October and November. The source allocation budget for atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea basin was calculated for each year of the period 1997–2006. The main emission sources contributing to total nitrogen deposition are: Germany 18–22 %, Poland 11–13% and Denmark 8–11%. There is also a significant contribution from distant sources like the United Kingdom 6–10%, as well as from the international ship traffic on the Baltic Sea 4–5%.

scholarly journals Institutional Change and the Implementation of the Ecosystem Approach: A Case Study of HELCOM and the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP)

Environments ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Savitri Jetoo ◽  
Nina Tynkkynen
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Ecological Status ◽  
Main Tool ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Ecosystem Approach ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Clear Shift ◽  
Good Ecological Status

The goal of this article is to explore the ways in which institutional changes are made to accommodate the application of the ecosystem approach for the governance of international environmental organizations. It examines the case of the Helsinki Commission, the governing body for restoration of good ecological status to the Baltic Sea, using the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) as its main tool. The Parties to the Helsinki Convention committed to adopting the ecosystem approach in the BSAP, recognizing that a clear shift was needed from the previous sectoral emphasis. The analysis is relevant and timely, as a review of BSAP indicates that implementation actions are lagging. The findings show that while the ecosystem approach influenced problem framing and envisioning, the overarching governance paradigm within HELCOM has not changed. Targeted transition leadership is crucial to guide more formal rules of engagement among actors and sectors for the better implementation of this holistic approach.

scholarly journals The Baltic Health Index (BHI): Assessing the social–ecological status of the Baltic Sea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thorsten Blenckner ◽  
Christian Möllmann ◽  
Julia Stewart Lowndes ◽  
Jennifer R. Griffiths ◽  
Eleanore Campbell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Ecological Status ◽  
Health Index ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Baltic

scholarly journals Changing seasonality of the Baltic Sea

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1009-1018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mati Kahru ◽  
Ragnar Elmgren ◽  
Oleg P. Savchuk
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Chlorophyll Concentration ◽  
Ecological Status ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Seasonal Cycles ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Several Variables ◽  
Satellite Sensors ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract. Changes in the phenology of physical and ecological variables associated with climate change are likely to have significant effect on many aspects of the Baltic ecosystem. We apply a set of phenological indicators to multiple environmental variables measured by satellite sensors for 17–36 years to detect possible changes in the seasonality in the Baltic Sea environment. We detect significant temporal changes, such as earlier start of the summer season and prolongation of the productive season, in several variables ranging from basic physical drivers to ecological status indicators. While increasing trends in the absolute values of variables like sea-surface temperature (SST), diffuse attenuation of light (Ked490) and satellite-detected chlorophyll concentration (CHL) are detectable, the corresponding changes in their seasonal cycles are more dramatic. For example, the cumulative sum of 30 000 W m−2 of surface incoming shortwave irradiance (SIS) was reached 23 days earlier in 2014 compared to the beginning of the time series in 1983. The period of the year with SST of at least 17 °C has almost doubled (from 29 days in 1982 to 56 days in 2014), and the period with Ked490 over 0.4 m−1 has increased from about 60 days in 1998 to 240 days in 2013 – i.e., quadrupled. The period with satellite-estimated CHL of at least 3 mg m−3 has doubled from approximately 110 days in 1998 to 220 days in 2013. While the timing of both the phytoplankton spring and summer blooms have advanced, the annual CHL maximum that in the 1980s corresponded to the spring diatom bloom in May has now shifted to the summer cyanobacteria bloom in July.

Projected Changes in Wave Conditions in the Baltic Sea by the end of 21st Century and the Corresponding Shoreline Changes

2016 ◽  
Vol 75 (sp1) ◽  
pp. 1012-1016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ülo Suursaar ◽  
Hannes Tõnisson ◽  
Victor Alari ◽  
Urmas Raudsepp ◽  
Henri Rästas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
21St Century ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Shoreline Changes ◽  
Wave Conditions ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Projected Changes

scholarly journals Effects of ship emissions on air quality in the Baltic Sea region simulated with three different chemistry transport models

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Karl ◽  
Jan Eiof Jonson ◽  
Andreas Uppstu ◽  
Armin Aulinger ◽  
Marja Prank ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
The Other ◽  
Aerosol Formation ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Transport Models ◽  
Ship Traffic ◽  
Baltic Sea Region ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. The Baltic Sea is highly frequented shipping area with busy shipping lanes close to densely populated regions. Exhaust emissions from ship traffic into the atmosphere are not only enhancing air pollution, they also affect the Baltic Sea environment through acidification and eutrophication of marine waters and surrounding terrestrial ecosystems. As part of the European BONUS project SHEBA (Sustainable Shipping and Environment of the Baltic Sea Region), the transport, chemical transformation and fate of atmospheric pollutants in the Baltic Sea region was simulated with three regional chemistry transport models (CTM) systems, CMAQ, EMEP/MSC-W and SILAM with grid resolutions between 4 km and 11 km. The main goal was to quantify the effect that shipping emissions have on the regional air quality in the Baltic Sea region when the same shipping emissions dataset but different CTMs in their typical setups are used. The performance of these models and the shipping contribution to the results of the individual models was evaluated for sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM2.5). Model results from the three CTMs were compared to observations from rural and urban background stations of the AirBase monitoring network in the coastal areas of the Baltic Sea region. The performance of the three CTM systems to predict pollutant concentrations is similar. However, observed PM2.5 in summer was underestimated strongly by CMAQ and to some extent by EMEP/MSC-W. The spatial average of annual mean O3 in the EMEP/MSC-W simulation is 15–25 % higher compared to the other two simulations, which is mainly the consequence of using a different set of boundary conditions for the European model domain. There are significant differences in the calculated ship contributions to the levels of air pollutants among the three models. SILAM predicted a much weaker ozone depletion through NO emissions in the proximity of the main shipping routes than the other two models. In the entire Baltic Sea region the average contribution of ships to PM2.5 levels is in the range of 4.3–6.5 % for the three CTMs. Differences in ship-related PM2.5 between the models are mainly attributed to differences in the schemes for inorganic aerosol formation. Inspection of the ship-related elemental carbon (EC) revealed that assumptions about the vertical ship emission profile can affect the dispersion and abundance of ship-related pollutants in the near-ground atmosphere. The models are in agreement regarding the ship-related deposition of oxidised nitrogen, reporting a ship contribution in the range of 21–23 ktN y−1 as atmospheric input to the Baltic Sea. Results from the present study show the sensitivity of the ship contribution to combined uncertainties of boundary conditions, meteorological data and aerosol formation and deposition schemes. This is an important step towards a more reliable evaluation of policy options regarding emission regulations for ship traffic and the planned introduction of a nitrogen emission control area (NECA) in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea in 2021.

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