scholarly journals Comparing multiple model-derived aerosol optical properties to spatially collocated ground-based and satellite measurements

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 4451-4475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilissa B. Ocko ◽  
Paul A. Ginoux
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Measurement Techniques ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Orthogonal Polarization ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Multiple Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Aerosol Properties

Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosols are a key factor governing Earth's climate and play a central role in human-caused climate change. However, because of aerosols' complex physical, optical, and dynamical properties, aerosols are one of the most uncertain aspects of climate modeling. Fortunately, aerosol measurement networks over the past few decades have led to the establishment of long-term observations for numerous locations worldwide. Further, the availability of datasets from several different measurement techniques (such as ground-based and satellite instruments) can help scientists increasingly improve modeling efforts. This study explores the value of evaluating several model-simulated aerosol properties with data from spatially collocated instruments. We compare aerosol optical depth (AOD; total, scattering, and absorption), single-scattering albedo (SSA), Ångström exponent (α), and extinction vertical profiles in two prominent global climate models (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL, CM2.1 and CM3) to seasonal observations from collocated instruments (AErosol RObotic NETwork, AERONET, and Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization, CALIOP) at seven polluted and biomass burning regions worldwide. We find that a multi-parameter evaluation provides key insights on model biases, data from collocated instruments can reveal underlying aerosol-governing physics, column properties wash out important vertical distinctions, and improved models does not mean all aspects are improved. We conclude that it is important to make use of all available data (parameters and instruments) when evaluating aerosol properties derived by models.

scholarly journals Comparing multiple model-derived aerosol optical properties to collocated ground-based and satellite measurements

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilissa B. Ocko ◽  
Paul A. Ginoux
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Measurement Techniques ◽  
Single Scattering ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Multiple Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
Aerosol Properties

Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosols are a key factor governing Earth’s climate, and play a central role in human-caused climate change. However, because of aerosols’ complex physical, optical, and dynamical properties, aerosols are one of the most uncertain aspects of climate modeling. Fortunately, aerosol measurement networks over the past few decades have led to the establishment of long-term observations for numerous locations worldwide. Further, the availability of datasets from several different measurement techniques (such as ground-based and satellite instruments) can help scientists increasingly improve modeling efforts. This study explores the value of evaluating several model-simulated aerosol properties with data from collocated instruments. We compare optical depth (total, scattering, and absorption), single scattering albedo, Ångström exponent, and extinction vertical profiles in two prominent global climate models to seasonal observations from collocated instruments (AERONET and CALIOP) at seven polluted and biomass burning regions worldwide. We find that models may accurately reproduce one variable while totally failing at another; data from collocated instruments can reveal underlying aerosol-governing physics; column properties may wash out important vertical distinctions; and "improved" models does not mean all aspects are improved. We conclude that it is important to make use of all available data (parameters and instruments) when evaluating aerosol properties derived by models.

Aerosol Properties and Processes: A Path from Field and Laboratory Measurements to Global Climate Models

2007 ◽  
Vol 88 (7) ◽  
pp. 1059-1084 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven J. Ghan ◽  
Stephen E. Schwartz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Substantial Improvement ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Department Of Energy ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Laboratory Measurements ◽  
Successive Generations ◽  
Aerosol Properties

Aerosol particles in the lower atmosphere exert a substantial influence on climate and climate change through a variety of complex mechanisms. Consequently, there is a need to represent these influences in global climate models, and models have begun to include representations of these influences. However, the present treatment of aerosols in global climate models is highly simplified, omitting many processes and feedbacks that are thought to be climatically important. Thus, there is need for substantial improvement. Here we describe the strategy of the U.S. Department of Energy for improving representation of the properties, processes, and effects of tropospheric aerosols in global climate models. The strategy begins with a foundation of field and laboratory measurements that provide the basis for modules describing specific aerosol properties and processes. These modules are then integrated into regional aerosol models, which are evaluated by comparison with field measurements. Issues of scale are then addressed so that the modules can be applied to global aerosol models, which are evaluated by comparison with satellite retrievals and other observations. Finally, the validated set of modules is applied in global climate models for multicentury simulations. This strategy is expected to be applied to successive generations of global climate models.

scholarly journals CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 855-879 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Barthel ◽  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Christopher M. Little ◽  
Tore Hattermann ◽  
Nicolas C. Jourdain ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Subsurface Ocean ◽  
Spatial Domains

Abstract. The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top three CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6 but can be adapted for other applications.

scholarly journals Revolutionizing Climate Modeling with Project Athena: A Multi-Institutional, International Collaboration

2013 ◽  
Vol 94 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. Kinter ◽  
B. Cash ◽  
D. Achuthavarier ◽  
J. Adams ◽  
E. Altshuler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
International Collaboration ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Research Effort ◽  
Pilot Project ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Mean Climate ◽  
Project Athena

The importance of using dedicated high-end computing resources to enable high spatial resolution in global climate models and advance knowledge of the climate system has been evaluated in an international collaboration called Project Athena. Inspired by the World Modeling Summit of 2008 and made possible by the availability of dedicated high-end computing resources provided by the National Science Foundation from October 2009 through March 2010, Project Athena demonstrated the sensitivity of climate simulations to spatial resolution and to the representation of subgrid-scale processes with horizontal resolutions up to 10 times higher than contemporary climate models. While many aspects of the mean climate were found to be reassuringly similar, beyond a suggested minimum resolution, the magnitudes and structure of regional effects can differ substantially. Project Athena served as a pilot project to demonstrate that an effective international collaboration can be formed to efficiently exploit dedicated supercomputing resources. The outcomes to date suggest that, in addition to substantial and dedicated computing resources, future climate modeling and prediction require a substantial research effort to efficiently explore the fidelity of climate models when explicitly resolving important atmospheric and oceanic processes.

Some Counterintuitive Dependencies of Tropical Cyclone Frequency on Parameters in a GCM

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (7) ◽  
pp. 2272-2283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Zhao ◽  
Isaac M. Held ◽  
Shian-Jiann Lin
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Mixing Rate ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
Mean Intensity ◽  
Two Parameters

Abstract High-resolution global climate models (GCMs) have been increasingly utilized for simulations of the global number and distribution of tropical cyclones (TCs), and how they might change with changing climate. In contrast, there is a lack of published studies on the sensitivity of TC genesis to parameterized processes in these GCMs. The uncertainties in these formulations might be an important source of uncertainty in the future projections of TC statistics. This study investigates the sensitivity of the global number of TCs in present-day simulations using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory High Resolution Atmospheric Model (GFDL HIRAM) to alterations in physical parameterizations. Two parameters are identified to be important in TC genesis frequency in this model: the horizontal cumulus mixing rate, which controls the entrainment into convective cores within the convection parameterization, and the strength of the damping of the divergent component of the horizontal flow. The simulated global number of TCs exhibits nonintuitive response to incremental changes of both parameters. As the cumulus mixing rate increases, the model produces nonmonotonic response in global TC frequency with an initial sharp increase and then a decrease. However, storm mean intensity rises monotonically with the mixing rate. As the strength of the divergence damping increases, the model produces a continuous increase of global number of TCs and hurricanes with little change in storm mean intensity. Mechanisms for explaining these nonintuitive responses are discussed.

scholarly journals Reducing uncertainties in satellite estimates of aerosol-cloud interactions over the subtropical ocean by integrating vertically resolved aerosol observations

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Painemal ◽  
Fu-Lung Chang ◽  
Richard Ferrare ◽  
Sharon Burton ◽  
Zhujun Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Orthogonal Polarization ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Error Characterization ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract. Satellite quantification of aerosol effects on clouds relies on aerosol optical depth (AOD) as a proxy for aerosol concentration or cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). However, the lack of error characterization of satellite-based results hampers their use for the evaluation and improvement of global climate models. We show that the use of AOD for assessing aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) is inadequate over vast oceanic areas in the subtropics. Instead, we postulate that a more physical approach that consists of matching vertically resolved aerosol data from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite at the cloud-layer height with Aqua Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud retrievals reduces uncertainties in satellite-based ACI estimates. Combined aerosol extinction coefficients (σ) below cloud-top (σBC) from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and cloud droplet number concentrations (Nd) from Aqua-MODIS yield high correlations across a broad range of σBC values, with σBC quartile correlations > 0.78. In contrast, CALIOP-based AOD yields correlations with MODIS Nd of less than 0.62 for the two lower AOD quartiles. Moreover, σBC explains 41 % of the spatial variance in MODIS Nd, whereas AOD only explains 17 %, primarily caused by the lack of spatial covariability in the eastern Pacific. Compared with σBC, near-surface σ weakly correlates in space with MODIS Nd, accounting for a 16 % variance. It is concluded that the linear regression calculated from ln(Nd)−ln(σBC) (the standard method for quantifying ACI) is more physically meaningful than that derived from the Nd−AOD pair.

scholarly journals Aerosol indirect effects in a multi-scale aerosol-climate model PNNL-MMF

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 3399-3459 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Wang ◽  
S. Ghan ◽  
M. Ovchinnikov ◽  
X. Liu ◽  
R. Easter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indirect Effects ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Aerosol Indirect Effects ◽  
Multi Scale

Abstract. Much of the large uncertainty in estimates of anthropogenic aerosol effects on climate arises from the multi-scale nature of the interactions between aerosols, clouds and large-scale dynamics, which are difficult to represent in conventional global climate models (GCMs). In this study, we use a multi-scale aerosol-climate model that treats aerosols and clouds across multiple scales to study aerosol indirect effects. This multi-scale aerosol-climate model is an extension of a multi-scale modeling framework (MMF) model that embeds a cloud-resolving model (CRM) within each grid cell of a GCM. The extension allows the explicit simulation of aerosol/cloud interactions in both stratiform and convective clouds on the global scale in a computationally feasible way. Simulated model fields, including liquid water path (LWP), ice water path, cloud fraction, shortwave and longwave cloud forcing, precipitation, water vapor, and cloud droplet number concentration are in agreement with observations. The new model performs quantitatively similar to the previous version of the MMF model in terms of simulated cloud fraction and precipitation. The simulated change in shortwave cloud forcing from anthropogenic aerosols is −0.77 W m−2, which is less than half of that in the host GCM (NCAR CAM5) (−1.79 W m−2) and is also at the low end of the estimates of most other conventional global aerosol-climate models. The smaller forcing in the MMF model is attributed to its smaller increase in LWP from preindustrial conditions (PI) to present day (PD): 3.9% in the MMF, compared with 15.6% increase in LWP in large-scale clouds in CAM5. The much smaller increase in LWP in the MMF is caused by a much smaller response in LWP to a given perturbation in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations from PI to PD in the MMF (about one-third of that in CAM5), and, to a lesser extent, by a smaller relative increase in CCN concentrations from PI to PD in the MMF (about 26% smaller than that in CAM5). The smaller relative increase in CCN concentrations in the MMF is caused in part by a smaller increase in aerosol lifetime from PI to PD in the MMF, a positive feedback in aerosol indirect effects induced by cloud lifetime effects. The smaller response in LWP to anthropogenic aerosols in the MMF model is consistent with observations and with high resolution model studies, which may indicate that aerosol indirect effects simulated in conventional global climate models are overestimated and point to the need to use global high resolution models, such as MMF models or global CRMs, to study aerosol indirect effects. The simulated total anthropogenic aerosol effect in the MMF is −1.05 W m−2, which is close to the Murphy et al. (2009) inverse estimate of −1.1 ± 0.4 W m−2 (1σ) based on the examination of the Earth's energy balance. Further improvements in the representation of ice nucleation and low clouds are needed.

An updated view of Hadley cell expansion from CMIP6 models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Grise ◽  
Sean Davis
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Poleward Shift

<p><strong>            </strong>One of the most robust aspects of the atmospheric circulation response to increasing greenhouse gases is the poleward shift in the subsiding branches of the Hadley circulation, potentially pushing subtropical dry zones poleward toward midlatitudes.  Numerous lines of observational evidence suggest that this tropical expansion may have already begun.  Yet, the degree to which the observed tropical widening is anthropogenically forced has remained a topic of great debate, as previous studies have attributed the recent circulation trends to some combination of increasing greenhouse gases, stratospheric ozone depletion, anthropogenic aerosols, and natural variability.  During the past few years, two international working groups have synthesized recent findings about the magnitude and causes of the observed tropical widening, primarily using output from global climate models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).  In this presentation, we update those findings using the recently released CMIP6 global climate models.</p><p>            Over recent decades, the poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation estimated from modern reanalyses is relatively modest (< 0.5 degrees latitude per decade).  The reanalysis trends have similar magnitudes in the annual mean in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), but both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models suggest that increasing greenhouse gases should drive 2–3 times larger circulation shifts in the SH.  The reanalysis trends fall within the bounds of the models’ simulations of the late 20<sup>th</sup> century and early 21<sup>st</sup> century, although prescribing observed coupled atmosphere-ocean variability allows the models to better capture the observed trends in the NH.  We find two notable differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 models.  First, both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models contract the NH summertime Hadley circulation equatorward (particularly over the Pacific sector) in response to increasing greenhouse gases, but this contraction is larger in CMIP6 models due to their higher average climate sensitivity.  Second, in recent decades, the poleward shift of the NH annual-mean Hadley cell edge is slightly larger in the historical runs of CMIP6 models.  Increasing greenhouse gases drive similar trends in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, so CMIP6 models imply a stronger role for other forcings (such as aerosols) in recent circulation trends than CMIP5 models.</p>

scholarly journals Reducing uncertainties in satellite estimates of aerosol–cloud interactions over the subtropical ocean by integrating vertically resolved aerosol observations

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 7167-7177 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Painemal ◽  
Fu-Lung Chang ◽  
Richard Ferrare ◽  
Sharon Burton ◽  
Zhujun Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Orthogonal Polarization ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Error Characterization ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract. Satellite quantification of aerosol effects on clouds relies on aerosol optical depth (AOD) as a proxy for aerosol concentration or cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). However, the lack of error characterization of satellite-based results hampers their use for the evaluation and improvement of global climate models. We show that the use of AOD for assessing aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) is inadequate over vast oceanic areas in the subtropics. Instead, we postulate that a more physical approach that consists of matching vertically resolved aerosol data from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite at the cloud-layer height with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua cloud retrievals reduces uncertainties in satellite-based ACI estimates. Combined aerosol extinction coefficients (σ) below cloud top (σBC) from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and cloud droplet number concentrations (Nd) from MODIS Aqua yield high correlations across a broad range of σBC values, with σBC quartile correlations ≥0.78. In contrast, CALIOP-based AOD yields correlations with MODIS Nd of 0.54–0.62 for the two lower AOD quartiles. Moreover, σBC explains 41 % of the spatial variance in MODIS Nd, whereas AOD only explains 17 %, primarily caused by the lack of spatial covariability in the eastern Pacific. Compared with σBC, near-surface σ weakly correlates in space with MODIS Nd, accounting for a 16 % variance. It is concluded that the linear regression calculated from ln(Nd)–ln(σBC) (the standard method for quantifying ACIs) is more physically meaningful than that derived from the Nd–AOD pair.

scholarly journals CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Barthel ◽  
Cecile Agosta ◽  
Christopher M. Little ◽  
Tore Hatterman ◽  
Nicolas C. Jourdain ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Surface Ocean ◽  
Spatial Domains

Abstract. The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts standalone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a sub-set of CMIP5 AOGCMs (3 core + 3 targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on: (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations, and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean sub-surface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical constraints, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top 3 CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica, and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6, but can be adapted for other applications.

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