scholarly journals Model Sensitivity Studies of the Decrease in Atmospheric Carbon Tetrachloride

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martyn P. Chipperfield ◽  
Qing Liang ◽  
Matthew Rigby ◽  
Ryan Hossaini ◽  
Stephen A. Montzka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Tetrachloride ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
The Past ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
Systematic Biases ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Carbon tetrachloride is an ozone-depleting substance, which is controlled by the Montreal Protocol and for which the atmospheric abundance is decreasing. However, the current observed rate of this decrease is known to be slower than expected based on reported CCl4 emissions and its estimated overall atmospheric lifetime. Here we use a three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model to investigate the impact on its predicted decay of uncertainties in the rates at which CCl4 is removed from the atmosphere by photolysis, by ocean uptake and by degradation in soils. The largest sink is atmospheric photolysis (76 % of total) but a reported 10 % uncertainty in its combined photolysis cross-section and quantum yield has only a modest impact on the modelled rate of CCl4 decay. This is partly due to the limiting effect of the rate of transport of CCl4 from the main tropospheric reservoir to the stratosphere where photolytic loss occurs. The model suggests large interannual variability in the magnitude of this stratospheric photolysis sink caused by variations in transport. The impact of uncertainty in the minor soil sink (9 % of total) is also relatively small. In contrast, the model shows that uncertainty in ocean loss (15 % of total) has the largest impact on modelled CCl4 decay due to its sizeable contribution to CCl4 loss and large uncertainty range (157 to 313 years). With an assumed CCl4 emission rate of 39 Gg/yr, the reference simulation with best estimate of loss processes still underestimates the observed CCl4 (overestimates the decay) over the past two decades but to a smaller extent than previous studies. Changes to the rate of CCl4 loss processes, in line with known uncertainties, could bring the model into agreement with in situ surface and remote-sensing measurements, as could an increase in emissions to around 45 Gg/yr. Further progress in constraining the CCl4 budget is partly limited by systematic biases between observational datasets. For example, surface observations from the NOAA network are larger than from the AGAGE network but have shown a steeper decreasing trend over the past two decades. These differences imply a difference in emissions which is significant relative to uncertainties in the magnitudes of the CCl4 sinks.

scholarly journals Model sensitivity studies of the decrease in atmospheric carbon tetrachloride

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (24) ◽  
pp. 15741-15754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martyn P. Chipperfield ◽  
Qing Liang ◽  
Matthew Rigby ◽  
Ryan Hossaini ◽  
Stephen A. Montzka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Tetrachloride ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
The Past ◽  
Systematic Biases ◽  
Lifetime Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is an ozone-depleting substance, which is controlled by the Montreal Protocol and for which the atmospheric abundance is decreasing. However, the current observed rate of this decrease is known to be slower than expected based on reported CCl4 emissions and its estimated overall atmospheric lifetime. Here we use a three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model to investigate the impact on its predicted decay of uncertainties in the rates at which CCl4 is removed from the atmosphere by photolysis, by ocean uptake and by degradation in soils. The largest sink is atmospheric photolysis (74 % of total), but a reported 10 % uncertainty in its combined photolysis cross section and quantum yield has only a modest impact on the modelled rate of CCl4 decay. This is partly due to the limiting effect of the rate of transport of CCl4 from the main tropospheric reservoir to the stratosphere, where photolytic loss occurs. The model suggests large interannual variability in the magnitude of this stratospheric photolysis sink caused by variations in transport. The impact of uncertainty in the minor soil sink (9 % of total) is also relatively small. In contrast, the model shows that uncertainty in ocean loss (17 % of total) has the largest impact on modelled CCl4 decay due to its sizeable contribution to CCl4 loss and large lifetime uncertainty range (147 to 241 years). With an assumed CCl4 emission rate of 39 Gg year−1, the reference simulation with the best estimate of loss processes still underestimates the observed CCl4 (overestimates the decay) over the past 2 decades but to a smaller extent than previous studies. Changes to the rate of CCl4 loss processes, in line with known uncertainties, could bring the model into agreement with in situ surface and remote-sensing measurements, as could an increase in emissions to around 47 Gg year−1. Further progress in constraining the CCl4 budget is partly limited by systematic biases between observational datasets. For example, surface observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) network are larger than from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network but have shown a steeper decreasing trend over the past 2 decades. These differences imply a difference in emissions which is significant relative to uncertainties in the magnitudes of the CCl4 sinks.

scholarly journals Atmospheric three-dimensional inverse modeling of regional industrial emissions and global oceanic uptake of carbon tetrachloride

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (21) ◽  
pp. 10421-10434 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Xiao ◽  
R. G. Prinn ◽  
P. J. Fraser ◽  
R. F. Weiss ◽  
P. G. Simmonds ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Tetrachloride ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Industrial Emissions

Abstract. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) has substantial stratospheric ozone depletion potential and its consumption is controlled under the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. We implement a Kalman filter using atmospheric CCl4 measurements and a 3-dimensional chemical transport model to estimate the interannual regional industrial emissions and seasonal global oceanic uptake of CCl4 for the period of 1996–2004. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH), driven by offline National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis meteorological fields, is used to simulate CCl4 mole fractions and calculate their sensitivities to regional sources and sinks using a finite difference approach. High frequency observations from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and low frequency flask observations are together used to constrain the source and sink magnitudes, estimated as factors that multiply the a priori fluxes. Although industry data imply that the global industrial emissions were substantially declining with large interannual variations, the optimized results show only small interannual variations and a small decreasing trend. The global surface CCl4 mole fractions were declining in this period because the CCl4 oceanic and stratospheric sinks exceeded the industrial emissions. Compared to the a priori values, the inversion results indicate substantial increases in industrial emissions originating from the South Asian/Indian and Southeast Asian regions, and significant decreases in emissions from the European and North American regions.

scholarly journals Atmospheric three-dimensional inverse modeling of regional industrial emissions and global oceanic uptake of carbon tetrachloride

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 12225-12260 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Xiao ◽  
R. G. Prinn ◽  
P. J. Fraser ◽  
R. F. Weiss ◽  
P. G. Simmonds ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Tetrachloride ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Industrial Emissions

Abstract. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) has substantial stratospheric ozone depletion potential and its consumption is controlled under the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. We implement a Kalman filter using atmospheric CC14 measurements and a 3-dimensional chemical transport model to estimate the interannual regional industrial emissions and seasonal global oceanic uptake of CCl4 for the period of 1996–2004. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH), driven by offline National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis meteorological fields, is used to simulate CCl4 mole fractions and calculate their sensitivities to regional sources and sinks using a finite difference approach. High frequency observations from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and low frequency flask observations are together used to constrain the source and sink magnitudes, estimated as factors that multiply the a priori fluxes. Although industry data imply that the global industrial emissions were substantially declining with large interannual variations, the optimized results show only small interannual variations and a small decreasing trend. The global surface CCl4 mole fractions were declining in this period because the CCl4 oceanic and stratospheric sinks exceeded the industrial emissions. Compared to the a priori values, the inversion results indicate substantial increases in industrial emissions originating from the South Asian/Indian and Southeast Asian regions, and significant decreases in emissions from the European and North American regions.

scholarly journals Heterogeneous reaction of HO<sub>2</sub> with airborne TiO<sub>2</sub> particles and its implication for climate change mitigation strategies

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel R. Moon ◽  
Giorgio S. Taverna ◽  
Clara Anduix-Canto ◽  
Trevor Ingham ◽  
Martyn P. Chipperfield ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Heterogeneous Reaction ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Heterogeneous Reactions ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Flow Tube ◽  
Tio2 Particles ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Change Mitigation

Abstract. One geoengineering mitigation strategy for global temperature rises resulting from the increased concentrations of greenhouse gases is to inject particles into the stratosphere to scatter solar radiation back to space, with TiO2 particles emerging as a possible candidate. Uptake coefficients of HO2, γ(HO2), onto sub-micrometre TiO2 particles were measured at room temperature and different relative humidities (RH) using an atmospheric pressure aerosol flow tube coupled to a sensitive HO2 detector. Values of γ(HO2) increased from 0.021 ± 0.001 to 0.036 ± 0.007 as the RH was increased from 11 % to 66 %, and the increase in γ(HO2) correlated with the number of monolayers of water surrounding the TiO2 particles. The impact of the uptake of HO2 onto TiO2 particles on stratospheric concentrations of HO2 and O3 was simulated using the TOMCAT three-dimensional chemical transport model. The model showed that by injecting the amount of TiO2 required to achieve the same cooling effect as the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, heterogeneous reactions between HO2 and TiO2 would have a negligible effect on stratospheric concentrations of HO2 and O3.

scholarly journals The contribution of natural and anthropogenic very short-lived species to stratospheric bromine

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 371-380 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Hossaini ◽  
M. P. Chipperfield ◽  
W. Feng ◽  
T. J. Breider ◽  
E. Atlas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Atmospheric Lifetime ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Atmospheric Observations ◽  
Surface Mixing ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We have used a global three-dimensional chemical transport model to quantify the impact of the very short-lived substances (VSLS) CHBr3, CH2Br2, CHBr2Cl, CHBrCl2, CH2BrCl and C2H5-Br on the bromine budget of the stratosphere. Atmospheric observations of these gases allow constraints on surface mixing ratios that, when incorporated into our model, contribute ~4.9–5.2 parts per trillion (ppt) of inorganic bromine (Bry) to the stratosphere. Of this total, ~76 % comes from naturally-emitted CHBr3 and CH2Br2. The remaining species individually contribute modest amounts. However, their accumulated total accounts for up to ~1.2 ppt of the supply and thus should not be ignored. We have compared modelled tropical profiles of a range of VSLS with observations from the recent 2009 NSF HIPPO-1 aircraft campaign. Modelled profiles agree reasonably well with observations from the surface to the lower tropical tropopause layer. We have also considered the poorly studied anthropogenic VSLS, C2H5Br, CH2BrCH2Br, n-C3H7Br and i-C3H7Br. We find the local atmospheric lifetime of these species in the tropical tropopause layer are ~183, 603, 39 and 49 days, respectively. These species, particularly C2H5Br and CH2BrCH2Br, would thus be important carriers of bromine to the stratosphere if emissions were to increase substantially. Our model shows ~70–73 % and ~80–85 % of bromine from these species in the tropical boundary layer can reach the lower stratosphere.

scholarly journals On the ability of chemical transport models to simulate the vertical structure of the N<sub>2</sub>O, NO<sub>2</sub> and HNO<sub>3</sub> species in the mid-latitude stratosphere

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 12373-12401
Author(s):  
G. Berthet ◽  
N. Huret ◽  
F. Lefèvre ◽  
G. Moreau ◽  
C. Robert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Transport Models ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Chemical Transport Models ◽  
Dimensional Version ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In this paper we study the impact of the modelling of N2O on the simulation of NO2 and HNO3 by comparing in situ vertical profiles measured at mid-latitudes with the results of the Reprobus 3-D CTM (Three-dimensional Chemical Transport Model) computed with the kinetic parameters from the JPL recommendation in 2002. The analysis of the measured in situ profile of N2O shows particular features indicating different air mass origins. The measured N2O, NO2 and HNO3 profiles are not satisfyingly reproduced by the CTM when computed using the current 6-hourly ECMWF operational analysis. Improving the simulation of N2O transport allows us to calculate quantities of NO2 and HNO3 in reasonable agreement with observations. This is achieved using 3-hourly winds obtained from ECMWF forecasts. The best agreement is obtained by constraining a one-dimensional version of the model with the observed N2O. This study shows that modelling the NOy partitioning with better accuracy relies at least on a correct simulation of N2O and thus of total NOy.

scholarly journals Satellite observations of stratospheric hydrogen fluoride and comparisons with SLIMCAT calculations

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (23) ◽  
pp. 34361-34405 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. J. Harrison ◽  
M. P. Chipperfield ◽  
C. D. Boone ◽  
S. S. Dhomse ◽  
P. F. Bernath ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Stratospheric Dynamics ◽  
Chemistry Experiment

Abstract. The vast majority of emissions of fluorine-containing molecules are anthropogenic in nature, e.g. chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Many of these fluorine-containing species deplete stratospheric ozone, and are regulated by the Montreal Protocol. Once in the atmosphere they slowly degrade, ultimately leading to the formation of HF, the dominant reservoir of stratospheric fluorine due to its extreme stability. Monitoring the growth of stratospheric HF is therefore an important marker for the success of the Montreal Protocol. We report the comparison of global distributions and trends of HF measured in the Earth's atmosphere by the satellite remote-sensing instruments ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer), which has been recording atmospheric spectra since 2004, and HALOE (HALogen Occultation Experiment), which recorded atmospheric spectra between 1991 and 2005, with the output of SLIMCAT, a state-of-the-art three-dimensional chemical transport model. In general the agreement between observation and model is good, although the ACE-FTS measurements are biased high by ∼ 10 % relative to HALOE. The observed global HF trends reveal a substantial slowing down in the rate of increase of HF since the 1990s: 4.97 ± 0.12 % year-1 (1991–1997; HALOE), 1.12 ± 0.08 % year-1 (1998–2005; HALOE), and 0.52 ± 0.03 % year-1 (2004–2012; ACE-FTS). In comparison, SLIMCAT calculates trends of 4.01, 1.10, and 0.48 % year-1, respectively, for the same periods; the agreement is very good for all but the earlier of the two HALOE periods. Furthermore, the observations reveal variations in the HF trends with latitude and altitude, for example between 2004 and 2012 HF actually decreased in the Southern Hemisphere below ∼ 35 km. SLIMCAT calculations broadly agree with these observations, most notably between 2004 and 2012. Such variations are attributed to variability in stratospheric dynamics over the observation period.

scholarly journals Mid-latitude ozone changes: studies with a 3-D CTM forced by ERA-40 analyses

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 2357-2369 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Feng ◽  
M. P. Chipperfield ◽  
M. Dorf ◽  
K. Pfeilsticker ◽  
P. Ricaud
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Positive Anomaly ◽  
Small Decrease ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Abrupt Changes ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We have used an off-line three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model (CTM) to study long-term changes in stratospheric O3. The model was run from 1977–2004 and forced by ECMWF ERA-40 and operational analyses. Model runs were performed to examine the impact of increasing halogens and additional stratospheric bromine from short-lived source gases. The analyses capture much of the observed interannual variability in column ozone, but there are also unrealistic features. In particular the ERA-40 analyses cause a large positive anomaly in northern hemisphere (NH) column O3 in the late 1980s. Also, the change from ERA-40 to operational winds at the start of 2002 introduces abrupt changes in some model fields (e.g. temperature, ozone) which affect analysis of trends. The model reproduces the observed column increase in NH mid-latitudes from the mid 1990s. Analysis of a run with fixed halogens shows that this increase is not due to a significant decrease in halogen-induced loss, i.e. is not an indication of recovery. The model predicts only a small decrease in halogen-induced loss after 1999. In the upper stratosphere, despite the modelled turnover of chlorine around 1999, O3 does not increase because of the effects of increasing ECMWF temperatures, decreasing modelled CH4 at this altitude, and abrupt changes in the SH temperatures at the end of the ERA-40 period. The impact of an additional 5 pptv stratospheric bromine from short-lived species decreases mid-latitude column O3 by about 10 DU. However, the impact on the modelled relative O3 anomaly is generally small except during periods of large volcanic loading.

scholarly journals On the ability of chemical transport models to simulate the vertical structure of the N<sub>2</sub>O, NO<sub>2</sub> and HNO<sub>3</sub> species in the mid-latitude stratosphere

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1599-1609 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Berthet ◽  
N. Huret ◽  
F. Lefèvre ◽  
G. Moreau ◽  
C. Robert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Transport Models ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Chemical Transport Models ◽  
Dimensional Version ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In this paper we study the impact of the modelling of N2O on the simulation of NO2 and HNO3 by comparing in situ vertical profiles measured at mid-latitudes with the results of the Reprobus 3-D CTM (Three-dimensional Chemical Transport Model) computed with the kinetic parameters from the JPL recommendation in 2002. The analysis of the measured in situ profile of N2O shows particular features indicating different air mass origins. The measured N2O, NO2 and HNO3 profiles are not satisfyingly reproduced by the CTM when computed using the current 6-hourly ECMWF operational analysis. Improving the simulation of N2O transport allows us to calculate quantities of NO2 and HNO3 in reasonable agreement with observations. This is achieved using 3-hourly winds obtained from ECMWF forecasts. The best agreement is obtained by constraining a one-dimensional version of the model with the observed N2O. This study shows that the modelling of the NOy partitioning with better accuracy relies at least on a correct simulation of N2O and thus of total NOy.

scholarly journals Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 18243-18285 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Saikawa ◽  
M. Rigby ◽  
R. G. Prinn ◽  
S. A. Montzka ◽  
B. R. Miller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
United Nations Environment Programme ◽  
Current Phase ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Chemical Tracers

Abstract. HCFC-22 (CHClF_2, chlorodifluoromethane) is an ozone-depleting substance (ODS) as well as a significant greenhouse gas (GHG). HCFC-22 has been used widely as a refrigerant fluid in cooling and air-conditioning equipment since the 1960s, and it has also served as a traditional substitute for some chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) controlled under the Montreal Protocol. A low frequency record on tropospheric HCFC-22 since the late 1970s is available from measurements of the Southern Hemisphere Cape Grim Air Archive (CGAA) and a few Northern Hemisphere air samples (mostly from Trinidad Head) using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. Since the 1990s high-frequency, high-precision, in situ HCFC-22 measurements have been collected at these AGAGE stations. Since 1992, the Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also collected flasks on a weekly basis from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of halocarbons including HCFC-22. Additionally, since 2006 flasks have been collected approximately daily at a number of tower sites across the US and analyzed for halocarbons and other gases at NOAA. All results show an increase in the atmospheric mole fractions of HCFC-22, and recent data show a growth rate of approximately 4% per year, resulting in an increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction by a factor of 1.7 from 1995 to 2009. Using data on HCFC-22 consumption submitted to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), as well as an existing bottom-up emissions estimate, we first create globally-gridded a priori HCFC-22 emissions over the 15 yr since 1995. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4) and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions. Our inversion indicates that the global HCFC-22 emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2009. We further find a surge in HCFC-22 emissions in 2009 from developing countries in Asia – the largest emitting region including China and India. Globally, substantial emissions continue despite current phase-out of production and consumption in developed countries.

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