Impact of Parameterized Boundary Layer Structure on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Forecasts in HWRF

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (4) ◽  
pp. 1413-1426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun A. Zhang ◽  
Robert F. Rogers ◽  
Vijay Tallapragada
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Layer Structure ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Boundary Layer Structure ◽  
Tangential Wind ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study evaluates the impact of the modification of the vertical eddy diffusivity (Km) in the boundary layer parameterization of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model on forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI). Composites of HWRF forecasts of Hurricanes Earl (2010) and Karl (2010) were compared for two versions of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme in HWRF. The results show that using a smaller value of Km, in better agreement with observations, improves RI forecasts. The composite-mean, inner-core structures for the two sets of runs at the time of RI onset are compared with observational, theoretical, and modeling studies of RI to determine why the runs with reduced Km are more likely to undergo RI. It is found that the forecasts with reduced Km at the RI onset have a shallower boundary layer with stronger inflow, more unstable near-surface air outside the eyewall, stronger and deeper updrafts in regions farther inward from the radius of maximum wind (RMW), and stronger boundary layer convergence closer to the storm center, although the mean storm intensity (as measured by the 10-m winds) is similar for the two groups. Finally, it is found that the departure of the maximum tangential wind from the gradient wind at the eyewall, and the inward advection of angular momentum outside the eyewall, is much larger in the forecasts with reduced Km. This study emphasizes the important role of the boundary layer structure and dynamics in TC intensity change, supporting recent studies emphasizing boundary layer spinup mechanism, and recommends further improvement to the HWRF PBL physics.

scholarly journals An Observational Study of the Symmetric Boundary Layer Structure and Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yifang Ren ◽  
Jun A. Zhang ◽  
Jonathan L. Vigh ◽  
Ping Zhu ◽  
Hailong Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Layer Structure ◽  
Mixed Layer Depth ◽  
Layer Depth ◽  
Storm Intensity ◽  
Boundary Layer Structure ◽  
Warm Core ◽  
Tangential Wind

This study analyses Global Positioning System dropsondes to document the axisymmetric tropical cyclone (TC) boundary-layer structure, based on storm intensity. A total of 2608 dropsondes from 42 named TCs in the Atlantic basin from 1998 to 2017 are used in the composite analyses. The results show that the axisymmetric inflow layer depth, the height of maximum tangential wind speed, and the thermodynamic mixed layer depth are all shallower in more intense TCs. The results also show that more intense TCs tend to have a deep layer of the near-saturated air inside the radius of maximum wind speed (RMW). The magnitude of the radial gradient of equivalent potential temperature (θe) near the RMW correlates positively with storm intensity. Above the inflow layer, composite structures of TCs with different intensities all possess a ring of anomalously cool temperatures surrounding the warm-core, with the magnitude of the warm-core anomaly proportional to TC intensity. The boundary layer composites presented here provide a climatology of how axisymmetric TC boundary layer structure changes with intensity.

scholarly journals Forecast Uncertainty of Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Dujuan (201521) Induced by Uncertainty in the Boundary Layer

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1263
Author(s):  
Xiaohao Qin ◽  
Wansuo Duan
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Forecast Uncertainty ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Tangential Wind ◽  
Typhoon Intensity

Using ensemble forecast experiments generated by the weather research and forecasting model, the forecast uncertainties of intensity and its rapid intensification (RI) induced by the uncertainty occurring in the boundary layer are investigated for Typhoon Dujuan (201521). The results show that the uncertainty in the boundary layer in the typhoon area, compared with that in other areas of the model domain, not only leads to a much larger forecast uncertainty of the typhoon intensity but also considerably perturbs the RI forecast uncertainty. Particularly, the uncertainty in the gale area in the boundary layer, compared with that in the inner-core and other areas, makes a much larger contribution to the forecast uncertainty of typhoon intensity, with the perturbations including moisture component being most strongly correlated with the occurrence of RI. Further analyses show that such perturbations increase the maximum tangential wind in the boundary layer and enhance the vorticity in the eyewall, which then facilitate the spin-up of the inner-core and induce the occurrence of RI. It is inferred that more observations, especially those associated with the moisture, should be preferentially assimilated in the gale area within the boundary layer of a tropical cyclone, which will help improve the forecast skill of the RI. These results also tell us that the boundary layer parameterization scheme should be further developed to improve the forecast skill of tropical cyclone intensity and its RI behavior.

scholarly journals Effects of Parameterized Boundary Layer Structure on Hurricane Rapid Intensification in Shear

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (3) ◽  
pp. 853-871 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun A. Zhang ◽  
Robert F. Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Angular Momentum ◽  
Layer Structure ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Eddy Diffusivity ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Boundary Layer Structure ◽  
Budget Analysis

Abstract This study investigates the role of the parameterized boundary layer structure in hurricane intensity change using two retrospective HWRF forecasts of Hurricane Earl (2010) in which the vertical eddy diffusivity Km was modified during physics upgrades. Earl undergoes rapid intensification (RI) in the low-Km forecast as observed in nature, while it weakens briefly before resuming a slow intensification at the RI onset in the high-Km forecast. Angular momentum budget analysis suggests that Km modulates the convergence of angular momentum in the boundary layer, which is a key component of the hurricane spinup dynamics. Reducing Km in the boundary layer causes enhancement of both the inflow and convergence, which in turn leads to stronger and more symmetric deep convection in the low-Km forecast than in the high-Km forecast. The deeper and stronger hurricane vortex with lower static stability in the low-Km forecast is more resilient to shear than that in the high-Km forecast. With a smaller vortex tilt in the low-Km forecast, downdrafts associated with the vortex tilt are reduced, bringing less low-entropy air from the midlevels to the boundary layer, resulting in a less stable boundary layer. Future physics upgrades in operational hurricane models should consider this chain of multiscale interactions to assess their impact on model RI forecasts.

A New Time-dependent Theory of Tropical Cyclone Intensification

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqing Wang ◽  
Yuanlong Li ◽  
Jing Xu
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Strong Dependence ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Quasi Equilibrium ◽  
Free Atmosphere ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Tangential Wind

AbstractIn this study, the boundary-layer tangential wind budget equation following the radius of maximum wind, together with an assumed thermodynamical quasi-equilibrium boundary layer is used to derive a new equation for tropical cyclone (TC) intensification rate (IR). A TC is assumed to be axisymmetric in thermal wind balance with eyewall convection becoming in moist slantwise neutrality in the free atmosphere above the boundary layer as the storm intensifies as found recently based on idealized numerical simulations. An ad-hoc parameter is introduced to measure the degree of congruence of the absolute angular momentum and the entropy surfaces. The new IR equation is evaluated using results from idealized ensemble full-physics axisymmetric numerical simulations. Results show that the new IR equation can reproduce the time evolution of the simulated TC intensity. The new IR equation indicates a strong dependence of IR on both TC intensity and the corresponding maximum potential intensity (MPI). A new finding is the dependence of TC IR on the square of the MPI in terms of the near-surface wind speed for any given relative intensity. Results from some numerical integrations of the new IR equation also suggest the finite-amplitude nature of TC genesis. In addition, the new IR theory is also supported by some preliminary results based on best-track TC data over the North Atlantic and eastern and western North Pacific. Compared with the available time-dependent theories of TC intensification, the new IR equation can provide a realistic intensity-dependent IR during weak intensity stage as in observations.

scholarly journals Integrated System for Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Estimation (ISABLE) using a ceilometer and microwave radiometer

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6965-6987
Author(s):  
Jae-Sik Min ◽  
Moon-Soo Park ◽  
Jung-Hoon Chae ◽  
Minsoo Kang
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Atmospheric Boundary Layer ◽  
Layer Structure ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Accurate Determination ◽  
Integrated System ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Boundary Layer Structure

Abstract. Accurate boundary layer structure and height are critical in the analysis of the features of air pollutants and local circulation. Although surface-based remote sensing instruments provide a high temporal resolution of the boundary layer structure, there are numerous uncertainties in terms of the accurate determination of the atmospheric boundary layer heights (ABLHs). In this study, an algorithm for an integrated system for ABLH estimation (ISABLE) was developed and applied to the vertical profile data obtained using a ceilometer and a microwave radiometer in Seoul city, Korea. A maximum of 19 ABLHs were estimated via the conventional time-variance, gradient, wavelet, and clustering methods using the backscatter coefficient from the ceilometer. Meanwhile, several stable boundary layer heights were extracted through near-surface inversion and environmental lapse rate methods using the potential temperature from the microwave radiometer. The ISABLE algorithm can find an optimal ABLH from post-processing, such as k-means clustering and density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) techniques. It was found that the ABLH determined using ISABLE exhibited more significant correlation coefficients and smaller mean bias and root mean square error between the radiosonde-derived ABLHs than those obtained using the most conventional methods. Clear skies exhibited higher daytime ABLH than cloudy skies, and the daily maximum ABLH was recorded in summer because of the more intense radiation. The ABLHs estimated by ISABLE are expected to contribute to the parameterization of vertical diffusion in the atmospheric boundary layer.

scholarly journals The Development of Boundary Layer Structure Index (BLSI) and Its Relationship with Ground Air Quality

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang Zheng ◽  
Jun Qin ◽  
Shengwen Liang ◽  
Zhengxuan Yuan ◽  
Yassin Mbululo
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Layer Structure ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Air Quality Monitoring ◽  
Ambient Air Quality ◽  
Vertical Diffusion ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Boundary Layer Structure ◽  
Structure Index

Ambient air quality monitoring data and radar tracking sonde data were used to study the atmospheric boundary layer structure (ABLS) and its changing characteristics over Wuhan. The boundary layer structure index (BLSI), which can effectively describe the ABLS, was accordingly developed and its ability to describe the near-surface air quality was analyzed. The results can be summarized as follows. (1) An analysis of the ABLS during seriously polluted cases revealed that the ABLS was usually dry and warm with a small ventilation index (VI); meanwhile, the ABLS during clean cases was usually wet and cold with a large VI. (2) The correlation between the air quality and BLSI at 100~300 m was good and passed the confidence level limit at 99%. Moreover, the correlation coefficient increased with the altitude at 10~250 m and showed a downward trend at 250~500 m. The correlation between the BLSI at 250 m and the ground air quality was the most significant (r = 0.312), indicating that the layer ranging from 0 to 250 m is essential for determining the ground air quality. (3) The BLSI considers both the vertical diffusion capability and horizontal removal capability of the atmosphere. Therefore, it is highly capable of describing the ABLS and the ground air quality.

The Impact of Outer-Core Surface Heat Fluxes on the Convective Activities and Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (11) ◽  
pp. 3907-3927
Author(s):  
Chin-Hsuan Peng ◽  
Chun-Chieh Wu
Keyword(s):  
Inner Core ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Outer Core ◽  
Surface Heat ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Core Surface ◽  
Surface Heat Fluxes ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe rapid intensification (RI) of Typhoon Soudelor (2015) is simulated using a full-physics model. To investigate how the outer-core surface heat fluxes affect tropical cyclone (TC) structure and RI processes, a series of numerical experiments are performed by suppressing surface heat fluxes between various radii. It is found that a TC would become quite weaker when the surface heat fluxes are suppressed outside the radius of 60 or 90 km [the radius of maximum surface wind in the control experiment (CTRL) at the onset of RI is roughly 60 km]. However, interestingly, the TC would experience stronger RI when the surface heat fluxes are suppressed outside the radius of 150 km. For those sensitivity experiments with capped surface heat fluxes, the members with greater intensification rate show stronger inner-core mid- to upper-level updrafts and higher heating efficiency prior to the RI periods. Although the outer-core surface heat fluxes in these members are suppressed, the inner-core winds become stronger, extracting more ocean energy from the inner core. Greater outer-core low-level stability in these members results in aggregation of deep convection and subsequent generation and concentration of potential vorticity inside the inner core, thus confining the strongest winds therein. The abovementioned findings are also supported by partial-correlation analyses, which reveal the positive correlation between the inner-core convection and subsequent 6-h intensity change, and the competition between the inner-core and outer-core convections (i.e., eyewall and outer rainbands).

Numerical Study on the Extremely Rapid Intensification of an Intense Tropical Cyclone: Typhoon Ida (1958)

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (11) ◽  
pp. 4194-4217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sachie Kanada ◽  
Akiyoshi Wada
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
Central Pressure ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Warm Core ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract Extremely rapid intensification (ERI) of Typhoon Ida (1958) was examined with a 2-km-mesh nonhydrostatic model initiated at three different times. Ida was an extremely intense tropical cyclone with a minimum central pressure of 877 hPa. The maximum central pressure drop in 24 h exceeded 90 hPa. ERI was successfully simulated in two of the three experiments. A factor crucial to simulating ERI was a combination of shallow-to-moderate convection and tall, upright convective bursts (CBs). Under a strong environmental vertical wind shear (>10 m s−1), shallow-to-moderate convection on the downshear side that occurred around the intense near-surface inflow moistened the inner-core area. Meanwhile, dry subsiding flows on the upshear side helped intensification of midlevel (8 km) inertial stability. First, a midlevel warm core appeared below 10 km in the shallow-to-moderate convection areas, being followed by the development of the upper-level warm core associated with tall convection. When tall, upright, rotating CBs formed from the leading edge of the intense near-surface inflow, ERI was triggered at the area in which the air became warm and humid. CBs penetrated into the upper troposphere, aligning the areas with high vertical vorticity at low to midlevels. The upper-level warm core developed rapidly in combination with the midlevel warm core. Under the preconditioned environment, the formation of the upright CBs inside the radius of maximum wind speeds led to an upright axis of the secondary circulation within high inertial stability, resulting in a very rapid central pressure deepening.

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