scholarly journals Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 10421-10453 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Guillas ◽  
G. C. Tiao ◽  
D. J. Wuebbles ◽  
A. Zubrow
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Noise Component ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. In this paper, we introduce a statistical method for examining and adjusting chemical-transport models. We illustrate the findings with total column ozone predictions, based on the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 2-D (UIUC 2-D) chemical-transport model of the global atmosphere. We propose a general diagnostic procedure for the model outputs in total ozone over the latitudes ranging from 60° South to 60° North to see if the model captures some typical patterns in the data. The method proceeds in two steps to avoid possible collinearity issues. First, we regress the measurements given by a cohesive data set from the SBUV(/2) satellite system on the model outputs with an autoregressive noise component. Second, we regress the residuals of this first regression on the solar flux, the annual cycle, the Antarctic or Arctic Oscillation, and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. If the coefficients from this second regression are statistically significant, then they mean that the model did not simulate properly the pattern associated with these factors. Systematic anomalies of the model are identified using data from 1979 to 1995, and statistically corrected afterwards. The 1996–2003 validation sample confirms that the combined approach yields better predictions than the direct UIUC 2-D outputs.

scholarly journals Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 525-537 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Guillas ◽  
G. C. Tiao ◽  
D. J. Wuebbles ◽  
A. Zubrow
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Noise Component ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. In this paper, we introduce a statistical method for examining and adjusting chemical-transport models. We illustrate the findings with total column ozone predictions, based on the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 2-D (UIUC 2-D) chemical-transport model of the global atmosphere. We propose a general diagnostic procedure for the model outputs in total ozone over the latitudes ranging from 60° South to 60° North to see if the model captures some typical patterns in the data. The method proceeds in two steps to avoid possible collinearity issues. First, we regress the measurements given by a cohesive data set from the SBUV(/2) satellite system on the model outputs with an autoregressive noise component. Second, we regress the residuals of this first regression on the solar flux, the annual cycle, the Antarctic or Arctic Oscillation, and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. If the coefficients from this second regression are statistically significant, then they mean that the model did not simulate properly the pattern associated with these factors. Systematic anomalies of the model are identified using data from 1979 to 1995, and statistically corrected afterwards. The 1996–2003 validation sample confirms that the combined approach yields better predictions than the direct UIUC 2-D outputs.

scholarly journals A global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability prior to 1979

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 9623-9639 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Brönnimann ◽  
J. Bhend ◽  
J. Franke ◽  
S. Flückiger ◽  
A. M. Fischer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Observation Error ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Ozone Data ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. We present a vertically resolved zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1901 to 2007, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations with historical total column ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea surface temperatures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation). The historical total column ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. Assimilating observations provides additional skill for total column ozone. With respect to the vertical ozone distribution, assimilating observations increases on average the correlation with a reference data set, but does not decrease the mean squared error. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. The ENSO signature exhibits a much clearer imprint of a change in strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation compared to the post-1979 period. The imprint of the 11 yr solar cycle is slightly weaker in the earlier period. Furthermore, the total column ozone increase from the 1950s to around 1970 at northern mid-latitudes is briefly discussed. Indications for contributions of a tropospheric ozone increase, greenhouse gases, and changes in atmospheric circulation are found. Finally, the paper points at several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0.

scholarly journals Vertical structure of MJO-related subtropical ozone variations from MLS, TES, and SHADOZ data

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 425-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.-F. Li ◽  
B. Tian ◽  
D. E. Waliser ◽  
M. J. Schwartz ◽  
J. L. Neu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Vertical Movement ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Future Work ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. Tian et al. (2007) found that the MJO-related total column ozone (O3) anomalies of 10 DU (peak-to-trough) are mainly evident over the subtropics and dynamically driven by the vertical movement of the subtropical tropopause layer. It was then hypothesized that the subtropical total column O3 anomalies are primarily associated with the O3 variability in the stratosphere rather the troposphere. In this paper, we investigate the vertical structure of MJO-related subtropical O3 variations using the vertical O3 profiles from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), as well as in-situ measurements by the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) project. Our analysis indicates that the subtropical O3 anomalies maximize approximately in the lower stratosphere (60–100 hPa). Furthermore, the spatial-temporal patterns of the subtropical O3 anomalies in the lower stratosphere are very similar to that of the total column. In particular, they are both dynamically driven by the vertical movement of subtropical tropopause. The subtropical partial O3 column anomalies between 30–200 hPa accounts for more than 50 % of the total O3 column anomalies. TES measurements show that at most 27 % of the total O3 column anomalies are contributed by the tropospheric components. This indicates that the subtropical total column O3 anomalies are mostly from the O3 anomalies in the lower stratosphere, which supports the hypothesis of Tian et al. (2007). The strong connection between the intraseasonal subtropical stratospheric O3 variations and the MJO implies that the stratospheric O3 variations may be predictable with similar lead times over the subtropics. Future work could involve a similar study or an O3 budget analysis using a sophisticated chemical transport model in the near-equatorial regions where the observed MJO signals of total column O3 are weak.

scholarly journals Ozone trends derived from the total column and vertical profiles at a northern mid-latitude station

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 10373-10384 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Nair ◽  
S. Godin-Beekmann ◽  
J. Kuttippurath ◽  
G. Ancellet ◽  
F. Goutail ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Solar Flux ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Latitude Station ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. The trends and variability of ozone are assessed over a northern mid-latitude station, Haute-Provence Observatory (OHP: 43.93° N, 5.71° E), using total column ozone observations from the Dobson and Système d'Analyse par Observation Zénithale spectrometers, and stratospheric ozone profile measurements from light detection and ranging (lidar), ozonesondes, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II, Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). A multivariate regression model with quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), solar flux, aerosol optical thickness, heat flux, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a piecewise linear trend (PWLT) or equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) functions is applied to the ozone anomalies. The maximum variability of ozone in winter/spring is explained by QBO and heat flux in the ranges 15–45 km and 15–24 km, respectively. The NAO shows maximum influence in the lower stratosphere during winter, while the solar flux influence is largest in the lower and middle stratosphere in summer. The total column ozone trends estimated from the PWLT and EESC functions are of −1.47 ± 0.27 and −1.40 ± 0.25 DU yr−1, respectively, over the period 1984–1996 and about 0.55 ± 0.30 and 0.42 ± 0.08 DU yr−1, respectively, over the period 1997–2010. The ozone profiles yield similar and significant EESC-based and PWLT trends for 1984–1996, and are about −0.5 and −0.8% yr−1 in the lower and upper stratosphere, respectively. For 1997–2010, the EESC-based and PWLT estimates are of the order of 0.3 and 0.1% yr−1, respectively, in the 18–28 km range, and at 40–45 km, EESC provides significant ozone trends larger than the insignificant PWLT results. Furthermore, very similar vertical trends for the respective time periods are also deduced from another long-term satellite-based data set (GOZCARDS–Global OZone Chemistry And Related trace gas Data records for the Stratosphere) sampled at northern mid-latitudes. Therefore, this analysis unveils ozone recovery signals from total column ozone and profile measurements at OHP, and hence in the northern mid-latitudes.

scholarly journals Vertical structure of MJO-related subtropical ozone variations from MLS, TES, and SHADOZ data

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 24503-24533 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.-F. Li ◽  
B. Tian ◽  
D. E. Waliser ◽  
M. J. Schwartz ◽  
J. L. Neu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Vertical Movement ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Future Work ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. Tian et al. (2007) found that the MJO-related total column ozone (O3) anomalies of 10 DU (peak-to-trough) are mainly evident over the subtropics and dynamically driven by the vertical movement of the subtropical tropopause layer. It was then hypothesized that the subtropical total column O3 anomalies are primarily associated with the O3 variability in the stratosphere rather the troposphere. In this paper, we investigate the vertical structure of MJO-related subtropical O3 variations using the vertical O3 profiles from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), as well as in situ measurements by the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) project. Our analysis indicates that the subtropical O3 anomalies maximize approximately in the lower stratosphere (60–100 hPa). Furthermore, the spatial-temporal patterns of the subtropical O3 anomalies in the lower stratosphere are very similar to that of the total column. In particular, they are both dynamically driven by the vertical movement of subtropical tropopause. The subtropical partial O3 column anomalies between 30–200 hPa accounts for more than 50 % of the total O3 column anomalies. TES measurements show that at most 30 % of the total O3 column anomalies are contributed by the tropospheric components. This indicates that the subtropical total column O3 anomalies are mostly from the O3 anomalies in the lower stratosphere, which supports the hypothesis of Tian et al. (2007). The strong connection between the intraseasonal subtropical stratospheric O3 variations and the MJO implies that the stratospheric O3 variations may be predictable with similar lead times over the subtropics. Future work could involve a similar study or an O3 budget analysis using a sophisticated chemical transport model in the near-equatorial regions where the observed MJO signals of total column O3 are weak.

scholarly journals Indicators of Antarctic ozone depletion

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 3811-3845 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. E. Bodeker ◽  
H. Shiona ◽  
H. Eskes
Keyword(s):  
Data Base ◽  
Ozone Hole ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Antarctic Ozone ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Total Column ◽  
Antarctic Ozone Hole

Abstract. An assimilated data base of total column ozone measurements from satellites has been used to generate a set of indicators describing attributes of the Antarctic ozone hole for the period 1979 to 2003, including (i) daily measures of the area over Antarctica where ozone levels are below 150DU, below 220DU, more than 30% below 1979 to 1981 norms, and more than 50% below 1979 to 1981 norms, (ii) the date of disappearance of 150DU ozone values, 220DU ozone values, values 30% below 1979 to 1981 norms, and values 50% below 1979 to 1981 norms, for each year, (iii) daily minimum total column ozone values over Antarctica, and (iv) daily values of the ozone mass deficit based on a O3<220DU threshold. The assimilated data base combines satellite-based ozone measurements from 4 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instruments, 3 different retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME), and data from 4 Solar Backscatter Ultra-Violet (SBUV) instruments. Comparisons with the global ground-based Dobson spectrophotometer network are used to remove offsets and drifts between the different data sets to produce a global homogeneous data set that combines the advantages of good spatial coverage of satellite data with good long-term stability of ground-based measurements. One potential use of the derived indices is detection of the expected recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. The suitability of the derived indicators to this task is discussed in the context of their variability and their susceptibility to saturation effects which makes them less responsive to decreasing stratospheric halogen loading. It is also shown that if the corrections required to match recent Earth Probe TOMS measurements to Dobson measurements are not applied, some of the indictors are affected so as to obscure detection of the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole.

scholarly journals ML-TOMCAT: machine-learning-based satellite-corrected global stratospheric ozone profile data set from a chemical transport model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 5711-5729
Author(s):  
Sandip S. Dhomse ◽  
Carlo Arosio ◽  
Wuhu Feng ◽  
Alexei Rozanov ◽  
Mark Weber ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Profile Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Ozone Profile ◽  
Satellite Instruments

Abstract. High-quality stratospheric ozone profile data sets are a key requirement for accurate quantification and attribution of long-term ozone changes. Satellite instruments provide stratospheric ozone profile measurements over typical mission durations of 5–15 years. Various methodologies have then been applied to merge and homogenise the different satellite data in order to create long-term observation-based ozone profile data sets with minimal data gaps. However, individual satellite instruments use different measurement methods, sampling patterns and retrieval algorithms which complicate the merging of these different data sets. In contrast, atmospheric chemical models can produce chemically consistent long-term ozone simulations based on specified changes in external forcings, but they are subject to the deficiencies associated with incomplete understanding of complex atmospheric processes and uncertain photochemical parameters. Here, we use chemically self-consistent output from the TOMCAT 3-D chemical transport model (CTM) and a random-forest (RF) ensemble learning method to create a merged 42-year (1979–2020) stratospheric ozone profile data set (ML-TOMCAT V1.0). The underlying CTM simulation was forced by meteorological reanalyses, specified trends in long-lived source gases, solar flux and aerosol variations. The RF is trained using the Stratospheric Water and OzOne Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) data set over the time periods of the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) (1991–1998) and Aura (2005–2016) missions. We find that ML-TOMCAT shows excellent agreement with available independent satellite-based data sets which use pressure as a vertical coordinate (e.g. GOZCARDS, SWOOSH for non-MLS periods) but weaker agreement with the data sets which are altitude-based (e.g. SAGE-CCI-OMPS, SCIAMACHY-OMPS). We find that at almost all stratospheric levels ML-TOMCAT ozone concentrations are well within uncertainties of the observational data sets. The ML-TOMCAT (V1.0) data set is ideally suited for the evaluation of chemical model ozone profiles from the tropopause to 0.1 hPa and is freely available via https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5651194 (Dhomse et al., 2021).

scholarly journals Ozone trends derived from the total column and vertical profiles at a northern mid-latitude station

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 7081-7112 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Nair ◽  
S. Godin-Beekmann ◽  
J. Kuttippurath ◽  
G. Ancellet ◽  
F. Goutail ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Solar Flux ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Latitude Station ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. The trends and variability of ozone are assessed over a northern mid-latitude station, Haute-Provence Observatory (OHP – 43.93° N, 5.71° E), using total column ozone observations from the Dobson and Système d'Analyse par Observation Zénithale spectrometers, and stratospheric ozone profile measurements from Light detection and ranging, ozonesondes, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II, Halogen Occultation Experiment and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder. A multi-variate regression model with quasi biennial oscillation (QBO), solar flux, aerosol optical thickness, heat flux, North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) and piecewise linear trend (PWLT) or Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) functions is applied to the ozone anomalies. The maximum variability of ozone in winter/spring is explained by QBO and heat flux in 15–45 km and in 15–24 km, respectively. The NAO shows maximum influence in the lower stratosphere during winter while the solar flux influence is largest in the lower and middle stratosphere in summer. The total column ozone trends estimated from the PWLT and EESC functions are of −1.39±0.26 and −1.40±0.25 DU yr−1, respectively over 1984–1996 and about 0.65±0.32 and 0.42±0.08 DU yr−1, respectively over 1997–2010. The ozone profiles yield similar and significant EESC-based and PWLT trends in 1984–1996 and are about −0.5 and −0.8 % yr−1 in the lower and upper stratosphere, respectively. In 1997–2010, the EESC-based and PWLT trends are significant and of order 0.3 and 0.1 % yr−1, respectively in the 18–28 km range, and at 40–45 km, EESC provides significant ozone trends larger than the insignificant PWLT results. Therefore, this analysis unveils ozone recovery signals from total column ozone and profile measurements at OHP, and hence in the mid-latitudes.

scholarly journals OMI total column ozone: extending the long-term data record

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 4845-4850 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. D. McPeters ◽  
S. Frith ◽  
G. J. Labow
Keyword(s):  
Cross Sections ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Retrieval Algorithm ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Ozone Data ◽  
Combining Data ◽  
Data Record ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. The ozone data record from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura satellite has proven to be very stable over the 10-plus years of operation. The OMI total column ozone processed through the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) ozone retrieval algorithm (version 8.5) has been compared with ground-based measurements and with ozone from a series of SBUV/2 (Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet) instruments. Comparison with an ensemble of Brewer–Dobson sites shows an absolute offset of about 1.5 % and almost no relative trend. Comparison with a merged ozone data set (MOD) created by combining data from a series of SBUV/2 instruments again shows an offset, of about 1 %, and a relative trend of less than 0.5 % over 10 years. The offset is mostly due to the use of the old Bass–Paur ozone cross sections in the OMI retrievals rather than the Brion–Daumont–Malicet cross sections that are now recommended. The bias in the Southern Hemisphere is smaller than that in the Northern Hemisphere, 0.9 % vs. 1.5 %, for reasons that are not completely understood. When OMI was compared with the European realization of a multi-instrument ozone time series, the GTO (GOME type Total Ozone) data set, there was a small trend of about −0.85 % decade−1. Since all the comparisons of OMI relative to other ozone measuring systems show relative trends that are less than 1 % decade−1, we conclude that the OMI total column ozone data are sufficiently stable that they can be used in studies of ozone trends.

scholarly journals Mid-latitude ozone changes: studies with a 3-D CTM forced by ERA-40 analyses

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 2357-2369 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Feng ◽  
M. P. Chipperfield ◽  
M. Dorf ◽  
K. Pfeilsticker ◽  
P. Ricaud
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Positive Anomaly ◽  
Small Decrease ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Abrupt Changes ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We have used an off-line three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model (CTM) to study long-term changes in stratospheric O3. The model was run from 1977–2004 and forced by ECMWF ERA-40 and operational analyses. Model runs were performed to examine the impact of increasing halogens and additional stratospheric bromine from short-lived source gases. The analyses capture much of the observed interannual variability in column ozone, but there are also unrealistic features. In particular the ERA-40 analyses cause a large positive anomaly in northern hemisphere (NH) column O3 in the late 1980s. Also, the change from ERA-40 to operational winds at the start of 2002 introduces abrupt changes in some model fields (e.g. temperature, ozone) which affect analysis of trends. The model reproduces the observed column increase in NH mid-latitudes from the mid 1990s. Analysis of a run with fixed halogens shows that this increase is not due to a significant decrease in halogen-induced loss, i.e. is not an indication of recovery. The model predicts only a small decrease in halogen-induced loss after 1999. In the upper stratosphere, despite the modelled turnover of chlorine around 1999, O3 does not increase because of the effects of increasing ECMWF temperatures, decreasing modelled CH4 at this altitude, and abrupt changes in the SH temperatures at the end of the ERA-40 period. The impact of an additional 5 pptv stratospheric bromine from short-lived species decreases mid-latitude column O3 by about 10 DU. However, the impact on the modelled relative O3 anomaly is generally small except during periods of large volcanic loading.

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