scholarly journals Sensitivity of ensemble Lagrangian reconstructions to assimilated wind time step resolution

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 8619-8633
Author(s):  
I. Pisso ◽  
V. Marécal ◽  
B. Legras ◽  
G. Berthet

Abstract. The aim of this study is to define the optimal temporal and spatial resolution required for accurate offline diffusive Lagrangian reconstructions of high resolution in-situ tracers measurements based on meteorological wind fields and on coarse resolution 3-D tracer distributions. Increasing the time resolution of the advecting winds from three to one hour intervals has a modest impact on diffusive reconstructions in the case studied. This result is discussed in terms of the effect on the geometry of transported clouds of points in order to set out a method to assess the effect of meteorological flow on the transport of atmospheric tracers.

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 3155-3162 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Pisso ◽  
V. Marécal ◽  
B. Legras ◽  
G. Berthet

Abstract. We study the impact of temporal and spatial resolution and changes in modelled meteorological winds in the context of diffusive ensemble Lagrangian reconstructions. In situ tracer measurements are modelled based on coarse resolution global 3-D tracer distributions from a chemistry-transport model and on different time series of meteorological wind fields including a special set of 1-hourly analysed winds which is compared with 3 and 6-hourly operational analysed winds and with 3-hourly ERA-interim reanalysis. Increasing the time resolution of the advecting winds from three to one hour using the operational winds provides an improvement on diffusive reconstructions in the period studied but smaller than that obtained from six to three hours. The positive impact of using 1-hourly winds is similar to that obtained using ERA-Interim 3-hourly winds instead of the 3-hourly ECMWF operational analysis for the same period. This study sets out a technique to quantify differences in time series of meteorological wind fields here applied to assess the optimal space and time resolutions for ensemble Lagrangian reconstructions in the lower stratosphere.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jouke de Baar ◽  
Gerard van der Schrier ◽  
Irene Garcia-Marti ◽  
Else van den Besselaar

<p><strong>Objective</strong></p><p>The purpose of the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) is to support society by providing information about the past, present and future climate. For the service related to <em>in-situ</em> observations, one of the objectives is to provide high-resolution (0.1x0.1 and 0.25x0.25 degrees) gridded wind speed fields. The gridded wind fields are based on ECA&D daily average station observations for the period 1970-2020.</p><p><strong>Research question</strong> </p><p>We address the following research questions: [1] How efficiently can we provide the gridded wind fields as a statistically reliable ensemble, in order to represent the uncertainty of the gridding? [2] How efficiently can we exploit high-resolution geographical auxiliary variables (e.g. digital elevation model, terrain roughness) to augment the station data from a sparse network, in order to provide gridded wind fields with high-resolution local features?</p><p><strong>Approach</strong></p><p>In our analysis, we apply greedy forward selection linear regression (FSLR) to include the high-resolution effects of the auxiliary variables on monthly-mean data. These data provide a ‘background’ for the daily estimates. We apply cross-validation to avoid FSLR over-fitting and use full-cycle bootstrapping to create FSLR ensemble members. Then, we apply Gaussian process regression (GPR) to regress the daily anomalies. We consider the effect of the spatial distribution of station locations on the GPR gridding uncertainty.</p><p>The goal of this work is to produce several decades of daily gridded wind fields, hence, computational efficiency is of utmost importance. We alleviate the computational cost of the FSLR and GPR analyses by incorporating greedy algorithms and sparse matrix algebra in the analyses.</p><p><strong>Novelty</strong>   </p><p>The gridded wind fields are calculated as a statistical ensemble of realizations. In the present analysis, the ensemble spread is based on uncertainties arising from the auxiliary variables as well as from the spatial distribution of stations.</p><p>Cross-validation is used to tune the GPR hyper parameters. Where conventional GPR hyperparameter tuning aims at an optimal prediction of the gridded mean, instead, we tune the GPR hyperparameters for optimal prediction of the gridded ensemble spread.</p><p>Building on our experience with providing similar gridded climate data sets, this set of gridded wind fields is a novel addition to the E-OBS climate data sets.</p>


2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 303-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. C. Privé ◽  
R. M. Errico

AbstractGeneral circulation models can now be run at very high spatial resolutions to capture finescale features, but saving the full-spatial-resolution output at every model time step is usually not practical because of storage limitations. To reduce storage requirements, the model output may be produced at reduced temporal and/or spatial resolutions. When this reduced-resolution output is then used in situations where spatiotemporal interpolation is required, such as the generation of synthetic observations for observing system simulation experiments, interpolation errors can significantly affect the quality and usefulness of the reduced-resolution model output. Although it is common in practice to record model output at the highest possible spatial resolution with relatively infrequent temporal output, this may not be the best option to minimize interpolation errors. In this study, two examples using a high-resolution global run of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), are presented to illustrate cases in which the optimal output dataset configurations for interpolation have high temporal frequency but reduced spatial resolutions. Interpolation errors of tropospheric temperature, specific humidity, and wind fields are investigated. The relationship between spatial and temporal output resolutions and interpolation errors is also characterized for the example model.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Donnelly ◽  
Rong Yu

<p>Direct in situ phenological observations of co-located trees and shrubs help characterize the phenological profile of ecosystems, such as, temperate deciduous forests. Accurate determination of the start and end of the growing season is necessary to define the active carbon uptake period for use in reliable carbon budget calculations. However, due to the resource intensive nature of recording in situ phenology the spatial coverage of sampling is often limited. In recent decades, the use of freely available satellite-derived phenology products to monitor ‘green-up’ at the landscape scale have become commonplace. Although these data sets are widely available they either have (i) high temporal resolution but low spatial resolution, such as, MODIS (daily return time; 250m) or (ii) low temporal resolution but high spatial resolution, such as, Landsat (16-day return time; 30m). However, the recently (2017) launched VENμS (Vegetation and Environment monitoring on a New Micro-Satellite) satellite combines both high temporal (two-day return time) and spatial (5-10m) resolution at a local scale thus providing an opportunity for small scale comparison of a range of phenometrics. The next challenge is to determine what in situ phenophase corresponds to the satellite-derived phenology. Our study site is a temperate deciduous woodlot on the campus of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, USA, where we monitored in situ phenology on a range of (5) native (N) and (3) non-native invasive (NNI) shrub species, and (6) tree species for a 3-year period (2017-2019) to determine the timing and duration of key spring (bud-open, leaf-out, full-leaf unfolded) and autumn (leaf color, leaf fall) phenophases. The monitoring campaign coincided with the 2-day return time of VENμS to enable direct comparison with the satellite data. The shrubs leafed out before the trees and the NNIs, in particular, remained green well into the autumn season when the trees were leafless. The next step will be to determine what exact in situ phenophses correspond to NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived start, peak and end of season from MODIS and VENμS data. In addition, we will determine if VENμS can detect differences in phenological profile between N and NNI shrubs at seasonal extremes. We anticipate that the high resolution VENμS data will increase the accuracy of phenological determination which could help improve carbon budget determination and inform forest management and conservation plans.</p>


2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1223-1257
Author(s):  
A. K. Miltenberger ◽  
S. Pfahl ◽  
H. Wernli

Abstract. A module to calculate online trajectories has been implemented into the non-hydrostatic limited-area weather prediction and climate model COSMO. Whereas offline trajectories are calculated with wind fields from model output, which is typically available every one to six hours, online trajectories use the simulated wind field at every model time step (typically less than a minute) to solve the trajectory equation. As a consequence, online trajectories much better capture the short-term temporal fluctuations of the wind field, which is particularly important for mesoscale flows near topography and convective clouds, and they do not suffer from temporal interpolation errors between model output times. The numerical implementation of online trajectories in the COSMO model is based upon an established offline trajectory tool and takes full account of the horizontal domain decomposition that is used for parallelization of the COSMO model. Although a perfect workload balance cannot be achieved for the trajectory module (due to the fact that trajectory positions are not necessarily equally distributed over the model domain), the additional computational costs are fairly small for high-resolution simulations. Various options have been implemented to initialize online trajectories at different locations and times during the model simulation. As a first application of the new COSMO module an Alpine North Föhn event in summer 1987 has been simulated with horizontal resolutions of 2.2 km, 7 km, and 14 km. It is shown that low-tropospheric trajectories calculated offline with one- to six-hourly wind fields can significantly deviate from trajectories calculated online. Deviations increase with decreasing model grid spacing and are particularly large in regions of deep convection and strong orographic flow distortion. On average, for this particular case study, horizontal and vertical positions between online and offline trajectories differed by 50–190 km and 150–750 m, respectively, after 24 h. This first application illustrates the potential for Lagrangian studies of mesoscale flows in high-resolution convection-resolving simulations using online trajectories.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Vionnet ◽  
Christopher B. Marsh ◽  
Brian Menounos ◽  
Simon Gascoin ◽  
Nicholas E. Wayand ◽  
...  

Abstract. The interaction of mountain terrain with meteorological processes causes substantial temporal and spatial variability in snow accumulation and ablation. Processes impacted by complex terrain include large-scale orographic enhancement of snowfall, small-scale processes such as gravitational and wind-induced transport of snow, and variability in the radiative balance such as through terrain shadowing. In this study, a multi-scale modeling approach is proposed to simulate the temporal and spatial evolution of high mountain snowpacks using the Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM), a multi-scale, spatially distributed modelling framework. CHM permits a variable spatial resolution by using the efficient terrain representation by unstructured triangular meshes. The model simulates processes such as radiation shadowing and irradiance to slopes, blowing snow redistribution and sublimation, avalanching, forest canopy interception and sublimation and snowpack melt. Short-term, km-scale atmospheric forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada's Global Environmental Multiscale Model through its High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) drive CHM, and were downscaled to the unstructured mesh scale using process-based procedures. In particular, a new wind downscaling strategy combines meso-scale HRDPS outputs and micro-scale pre-computed wind fields to allow for blowing snow calculations. HRDPS-CHM was applied to simulate snow conditions down to 50-m resolution during winter 2017/2018 in a domain around the Kananaskis Valley (~1000 km2) in the Canadian Rockies. Simulations were evaluated using high-resolution airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) snow depth data and snow persistence indexes derived from remotely sensed imagery. Results included model falsifications and showed that both blowing snow and gravitational snow redistribution need to be simulated to capture the snowpack variability and the evolution of snow depth and persistence with elevation across the region. Accumulation of wind-blown snow on leeward slopes and associated snow-cover persistence were underestimated in a CHM simulation driven by wind fields that did not capture leeside flow recirculation and associated wind speed decreases. A terrain-based metric helped to identify these lee-side areas and improved the wind field and the associated snow redistribution. An overestimation of snow redistribution from windward to leeward slopes and subsequent avalanching was still found. The results of this study highlight the need for further improvements of snowdrift-permitting models for large-scale applications, in particular the representation of subgrid topographic effects on snow transport.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Fischer ◽  
Bernd Seiser ◽  
Kay Helfricht ◽  
Martin Stocker-Waldhuber

Abstract. Eastern Alpine glaciers have been receding since the LIA maximum, but the majority of glacier margins could be delineated unambiguously for the last Austrian glacier inventories. Even debris-covered termini, changes in slope, colour or the position of englacial streams enabled at least an in situ survey of glacier outlines. Today the outlines of totally debris-covered glacier ice are fuzzy and raise the theoretical discussion if these glaciogenic features are still glaciers and should be part of the respective inventory – or part of an inventory of transient cryogenic landforms. A new high-resolution glacier inventory (area and surface elevation) was compiled for the years 2017 and 2018 to quantify glacier changes for the Austrian Silvretta region in full. Glacier outlines were mapped manually, based on orthophotos and elevation models and patterns of volume change of 1 to 0.5 m spatial resolution. The vertical accuracy of the DEMs generated from 6 to 8 LiDAR points per m2 is in the order of centimetres. calculated in relation to the previous inventories dating from 2004/2006 (LiDAR), 2002, 1969 (photogrammetry) and to the Little Ice Age maximum extent (moraines). Between 2004/06 and 2017/2018, the 46 glaciers of the Austrian Silvretta lost −29 ± 4 % of their area and now cover 13.1 ± 0.4 km2. This is only 32 ± 2 % of their LIA extent of 40.9 ± 4.1 km2. The area change rate increased from −0.6 %/year (1969–2002) to −2.4 %/year (2004/06–2017/18). The annual geodetic mass balance showed a loss increasing from −0.2 ± 0.1 m w.e./year (1969–2002) to –0.8 m ±0.1 w.e./year (2004/06–2017/18) with an interim peak in 2002–2004/06 at −1.5 ± 0.7 m w.e./year. Identifying the glacier outlines offers a wide range of possible interpretations of former glaciers that have evolved into small and now totally debris-covered cryogenic geomorphological structures. Only the patterns and amounts of volume changes allow us to estimate the area of the buried glacier remnants. To keep track of the buried ice and its fate, and to distinguish increasing debris cover from ice loss, we recommend inventory repeat frequencies of three to five years and surface elevation data with a spatial resolution of one metre.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Peng ◽  
Simon Dadson ◽  
Feyera Hirpa ◽  
Ellen Dyer ◽  
Thomas Lees ◽  
...  

Abstract. Droughts in Africa cause severe problems such as crop failure, food shortages, famine, epidemics and even mass migration. To minimize the effects of drought on water and food security over Africa, a high-resolution drought dataset is essential to establish robust drought hazard probabilities and to assess drought vulnerability considering a multi- and cross-sectorial perspective that includes crops, hydrological systems, rangeland, and environmental systems. Such assessments are essential for policy makers, their advisors, and other stakeholders to respond to the pressing humanitarian issues caused by these environmental hazards. In this study, a high spatial resolution Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought dataset is presented to support these assessments. We compute historical SPEI data based on Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) precipitation estimates and Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) potential evaporation estimates. The high resolution SPEI dataset (SPEI-HR) presented here spans from 1981 to 2016 (36 years) with 5 km spatial resolution over the whole Africa. To facilitate the diagnosis of droughts of different durations, accumulation periods from 1 to 48 months are provided. The quality of the resulting dataset was compared with coarse-resolution SPEI based on Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) datasets, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) calculated from the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) project, as well as with root zone soil moisture modelled by GLEAM. Agreement found between coarse resolution SPEI from CRU TS (SPEI-CRU) and the developed SPEI-HR provides confidence in the estimation of temporal and spatial variability of droughts in Africa with SPEI-HR. In addition, agreement of SPEI-HR versus NDVI and root zone soil moisture – with average correlation coefficient (R) of 0.54 and 0.77, respectively – further implies that SPEI-HR can provide valuable information to study drought-related processes and societal impacts at sub-basin and district scales in Africa. The dataset is archived in Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) with link: https://doi.org/10.5285/bbdfd09a04304158b366777eba0d2aeb (Peng et al., 2019a)


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jovan Kovačević ◽  
Željko Cvijetinović ◽  
Nikola Stančić ◽  
Nenad Brodić ◽  
Dragan Mihajlović

ESA CCI SM products have provided remotely-sensed surface soil moisture (SSM) content with the best spatial and temporal coverage thus far, although its output spatial resolution of 25 km is too coarse for many regional and local applications. The downscaling methodology presented in this paper improves ESA CCI SM spatial resolution to 1 km using two-step approach. The first step is used as a data engineering tool and its output is used as an input for the Random forest model in the second step. In addition to improvements in terms of spatial resolution, the approach also considers the problem of data gaps. The filling of these gaps is the initial step of the procedure, which in the end produces a continuous product in both temporal and spatial domains. The methodology uses combined active and passive ESA CCI SM products in addition to in situ soil moisture observations and the set of auxiliary downscaling predictors. The research tested several variants of Random forest models to determine the best combination of ESA CCI SM products. The conclusion is that synergic use of all ESA CCI SM products together with the auxiliary datasets in the downscaling procedure provides better results than using just one type of ESA CCI SM product alone. The methodology was applied for obtaining SSM maps for the area of California, USA during 2016. The accuracy of tested models was validated using five-fold cross-validation against in situ data and the best variation of model achieved RMSE, R2 and MAE of 0.0518 m3/m3, 0.7312 and 0.0374 m3/m3, respectively. The methodology proved to be useful for generating high-resolution SSM products, although additional improvements are necessary.


1979 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 269-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.W. Acton ◽  
J.M. Mosher

The purpose of this research is to investigate the temporal and spatial relationships of activated filaments, soft X-ray production, and Ha flares. The X-ray data are from the Lockheed Mapping X-Ray Heliometer (MXRH) on 0S0-8 (Wolfson et al., 1975, 1977). This instrument has been operating continuously since July 1975. It responds to radiation from solar plasma above about 2 × 106K, provides a time resolution of 20 sec, a spatial resolution of 2-3 arc min and has a basic sensitivity roughly equivalent to the 1-8 Å full disc monitors of, e.g., the SOLRAD and SMS/GOES satellites (threshold ≈ 2 × 10-9W/m2). However, because of its spatial resolution the MXRH permits study of small X-ray events in individual active regions even when the integrated solar X-ray emission is high.


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