scholarly journals Sensitivity of ensemble Lagrangian reconstructions to assimilated wind time step resolution

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 3155-3162 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Pisso ◽  
V. Marécal ◽  
B. Legras ◽  
G. Berthet
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Optimal Space

Abstract. We study the impact of temporal and spatial resolution and changes in modelled meteorological winds in the context of diffusive ensemble Lagrangian reconstructions. In situ tracer measurements are modelled based on coarse resolution global 3-D tracer distributions from a chemistry-transport model and on different time series of meteorological wind fields including a special set of 1-hourly analysed winds which is compared with 3 and 6-hourly operational analysed winds and with 3-hourly ERA-interim reanalysis. Increasing the time resolution of the advecting winds from three to one hour using the operational winds provides an improvement on diffusive reconstructions in the period studied but smaller than that obtained from six to three hours. The positive impact of using 1-hourly winds is similar to that obtained using ERA-Interim 3-hourly winds instead of the 3-hourly ECMWF operational analysis for the same period. This study sets out a technique to quantify differences in time series of meteorological wind fields here applied to assess the optimal space and time resolutions for ensemble Lagrangian reconstructions in the lower stratosphere.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of ensemble Lagrangian reconstructions to assimilated wind time step resolution

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 8619-8633
Author(s):  
I. Pisso ◽  
V. Marécal ◽  
B. Legras ◽  
G. Berthet
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Time Resolution ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Coarse Resolution ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
Atmospheric Tracers

Abstract. The aim of this study is to define the optimal temporal and spatial resolution required for accurate offline diffusive Lagrangian reconstructions of high resolution in-situ tracers measurements based on meteorological wind fields and on coarse resolution 3-D tracer distributions. Increasing the time resolution of the advecting winds from three to one hour intervals has a modest impact on diffusive reconstructions in the case studied. This result is discussed in terms of the effect on the geometry of transported clouds of points in order to set out a method to assess the effect of meteorological flow on the transport of atmospheric tracers.

scholarly journals Assimilation of IASI satellite CO fields into a global chemistry transport model for validation against aircraft measurements

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4493-4512 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Klonecki ◽  
M. Pommier ◽  
C. Clerbaux ◽  
G. Ancellet ◽  
J.-P. Cammas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Specific Treatment ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
High Concentrations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This work evaluates the IASI CO product against independent in-situ aircraft data from the MOZAIC program and the POLARCAT aircraft campaign. The validation is carried out by analysing the impact of assimilation of eight months of IASI CO columns retrieved for the period of May to December 2008 into the global chemistry transport model LMDz-INCA. A modelling system based on a sub-optimal Kalman filter was developed and a specific treatment that takes into account the representativeness of observations at the scale of the model grid is applied to the IASI CO columns and associated errors before their assimilation in the model. Comparisons of the assimilated CO profiles with in situ CO measurements indicate that the assimilation leads to a considerable improvement of the model simulations in the middle troposphere as compared with a control run with no assimilation. Model biases in the simulation of background values are reduced and improvement in the simulation of very high concentrations is observed. The improvement is due to the transport by the model of the information present in the IASI CO retrievals. Our analysis also shows the impact of assimilation of CO on the representation of transport into the Arctic region during the POLARCAT summer campaign. A considerable increase in CO mixing ratios over the Asian source region was observed when assimilation was used leading to much higher values of CO during the cross-pole transport episode. These higher values are in good agreement with data from the POLARCAT flights that sampled this plume.

scholarly journals Stratospheric age of air computed with trajectories based on various 3D-Var and 4D-Var data sets

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. P. Scheele ◽  
P. C. Siegmund ◽  
P. F. J. Velthoven
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Segment Length ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
Backward Trajectories ◽  
Forecast Data ◽  
The Difference

Abstract. The age of stratospheric air is computed with a trajectory model, using ECMWF ERA-40 3D-Var and operational 4D-Var winds. Analysis as well as forecast data are used. In the latter case successive forecast segments are put together to get a time series of the wind fields. This is done for different forecast segment lengths. The sensitivity of the computed age to the forecast segment length and assimilation method are studied, and the results are compared with observations and with results from a chemistry transport model that uses the same data sets. A large number of backward trajectories are started in the stratosphere, and from the fraction of these trajectories that has passed the tropopause the age of air is computed. First, for ten different data sets 50-day backward trajectories starting in the tropical lower stratosphere are computed. The results show that in this region the computed cross-tropopause transport decreases with increasing forecast segment length. Next, for three selected data sets (3D-Var 24-h and 4D-Var 72-h forecast segments, and 4D-Var analyses) 5-year backward trajectories are computed that start all over the globe at an altitude of 20km. For all data sets the computed ages of air in the extratropics are smaller than the observation-based age. For 4D-Var forecast series they are closest to the observation-based values, but still 0.5-1.5 year too small. Compared to the difference in age between the results for the different data sets, the difference in age between the trajectory and the chemistry transport model results is small.

The measurement of groundwater temperature in shallow piezometers and standpipes

2005 ◽  
Vol 42 (5) ◽  
pp. 1377-1390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew D Alexander ◽  
Kerry TB MacQuarrie
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Shallow Groundwater ◽  
Subsurface Temperature ◽  
Groundwater Temperature ◽  
Monitoring Well ◽  
Laboratory Results ◽  
The Impact

Accurate measurements of in situ groundwater temperature are important in many groundwater investigations. Temperature is often measured in the subsurface using an access tube in the form of a piezometer or monitoring well. The impact of standpipe materials on the conduction of heat into the subsurface has not previously been examined. This paper reports on the results of a laboratory experiment and a field experiment designed to determine if different standpipe materials or monitoring instrument configurations preferentially conduct heat into the shallow sub surface. Simulations with a numerical model were also conducted for comparison to the laboratory results. Statistical analysis of the laboratory results demonstrates that common standpipe materials, such as steel and polyvinylchloride (PVC), do not affect temperature in the subsurface. Simulations with a finite element flow and heat transport model also confirm that the presence of access tube materials does not affect shallow groundwater temperature measurements. Field results show that different instrument configurations, such as piezometers and water and air filled and sealed well points, do not affect subsurface temperature measurements.Key words: groundwater temperature, temperature measurement, conduction, piezometers, piezometer standpipes, thermal modelling.

Welfare Use in Japan: Trends and Determinants

2007 ◽  
pp. 88
Author(s):  
Wataru Suzuki ◽  
Yanfei Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Welfare Use ◽  
The Impact

This article represents the first step in filling a large gap in knowledge concerning why Public Assistance (PA) use recently rose so fast in Japan. Specifically, we try to address this problem not only by performing a Blanchard and Quah decomposition on long-term monthly time series data (1960:04-2006:10), but also by estimating prefecturelevel longitudinal data. Two interesting findings emerge from the time series analysis. The first is that permanent shock imposes a continuously positive impact on the PA rate and is the main driving factor behind the recent increase in welfare use. The second finding is that the impact of temporary shock will last for a long time. The rate of the use of welfare is quite rigid because even if the PA rate rises due to temporary shocks, it takes about 8 or 9 years for it to regain its normal level. On the other hand, estimations of prefecture-level longitudinal data indicate that the Financial Capability Index (FCI) of the local government2 and minimum wage both impose negative effects on the PA rate. We also find that the rapid aging of Japan's population presents a permanent shock in practice, which makes it the most prominent contribution to surging welfare use.

scholarly journals SMOS Neural Network Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in a Land Surface Model and Atmospheric Impact

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez ◽  
Patricia de Rosnay ◽  
Clement Albergel ◽  
Philippe Richaume ◽  
Filipe Aires ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Northern Asia ◽  
The Impact

The assimilation of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) data into the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) H-TESSEL (Hydrology revised - Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) model is presented. SMOS soil moisture (SM) estimates have been produced specifically by training a neural network with SMOS brightness temperatures as input and H-TESSEL model SM simulations as reference. This can help the assimilation of SMOS information in several ways: (1) the neural network soil moisture (NNSM) data have a similar climatology to the model, (2) no global bias is present with respect to the model even if regional differences can exist. Experiments performing joint data assimilation (DA) of NNSM, 2 metre air temperature and relative humidity or NNSM-only DA are discussed. The resulting SM was evaluated against a large number of in situ measurements of SM obtaining similar results to those of the model with no assimilation, even if significant differences were found from site to site. In addition, atmospheric forecasts initialized with H-TESSEL runs (without DA) or with the analysed SM were compared to measure of the impact of the satellite information. Although, NNSM DA has an overall neutral impact in the forecast in the Tropics, a significant positive impact was found in other areas and periods, especially in regions with limited in situ information. The joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast for all the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere. The impact is mostly due to T2m and RH2m, but SMOS NN DA alone also improves the forecast in July- September. In the Northern Hemisphere, the joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast in April-September, while NNSM alone has a significant positive effect in July-September. Furthermore, forecasting skill maps show that SMOS NNSM improves the forecast in North America and in Northern Asia for up to 72 hours lead time.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Nightlight Gradients on Street Robbery and Burglary in Cincinnati of Ohio State, USA

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 1958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanlin Zhou ◽  
Lin Liu ◽  
Minxuan Lan ◽  
Bo Yang ◽  
Zengli Wang
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Infrared Imaging ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
Street Robbery ◽  
The Impact

Previous research has recognized the importance of edges to crime. Various scholars have explored how one specific type of edges such as physical edges or social edges affect crime, but rarely investigated the importance of the composite edge effect. To address this gap, this study introduces nightlight data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite sensor on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership Satellite (NPP-VIIRS) to measure composite edges. This study defines edges as nightlight gradients—the maximum change of nightlight from a pixel to its neighbors. Using nightlight gradients and other control variables at the tract level, this study applies negative binomial regression models to investigate the effects of edges on the street robbery rate and the burglary rate in Cincinnati. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of models show that nightlight gradients improve the fitness of models of street robbery and burglary. Also, nightlight gradients make a positive impact on the street robbery rate whilst a negative impact on the burglary rate, both of which are statistically significant under the alpha level of 0.05. The different impacts on these two types of crimes may be explained by the nature of crimes and the in-situ characteristics, including nightlight.

scholarly journals Simulating Secondary Inorganic Aerosols using the chemistry transport model MOCAGE version R2.15.0

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 3593-3651 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Guth ◽  
B. Josse ◽  
V. Marécal ◽  
M. Joly
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
In Situ Measurements ◽  
Aerosol Composition ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
Inorganic Aerosols ◽  
Modis Aod ◽  
Inorganic Aerosol

Abstract. In this study we develop a Secondary Inorganic Aerosol (SIA) module for the chemistry transport model MOCAGE developed at CNRM. Based on the thermodynamic equilibrium module ISORROPIA II, the new version of the model is evaluated both at the global scale and at the regional scale. The results show high concentrations of secondary inorganic aerosols in the most polluted regions being Europe, Asia and the eastern part of North America. Asia shows higher sulfate concentrations than other regions thanks to emissions reduction in Europe and North America. Using two simulations, one with and the other without secondary inorganic aerosol formation, the model global outputs are compared to previous studies, to MODIS AOD retrievals, and also to in situ measurements from the HTAP database. The model shows a better agreement in all geographical regions with MODIS AOD retrievals when introducing SIA. It also provides a good statistical agreement with in situ measurements of secondary inorganic aerosol composition: sulfate, nitrate and ammonium. In addition, the simulation with SIA gives generally a better agreement for secondary inorganic aerosols precursors (nitric acid, sulfur dioxide, ammonia) in particular with a reduction of the Modified Normalised Mean Bias (MNMB). At the regional scale, over Europe, the model simulation with SIA are compared to the in situ measurements from the EMEP database and shows a good agreement with secondary inorganic aerosol composition. The results at the regional scale are consistent with those obtained with the global simulations. The AIRBASE database was used to compare the model to regulated air quality pollutants being particulate matter, ozone and nitrogen dioxide concentrations. The introduction of the SIA in MOCAGE provides a reduction of the PM2.5 MNMB of 0.44 on a yearly basis and even 0.52 on a three spring months period (March, April, May) when SIA are maximum.

scholarly journals The influence of biogenic emissions on upper-tropospheric methanol as revealed from space

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (24) ◽  
pp. 6119-6129 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Dufour ◽  
S. Szopa ◽  
D. A. Hauglustaine ◽  
C. D. Boone ◽  
C. P. Rinsland ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Tropospheric Chemistry ◽  
Biogenic Emissions ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Oxygenated Compounds ◽  
Global Space ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The distribution and budget of oxygenated organic compounds in the atmosphere and their impact on tropospheric chemistry are still poorly constrained. Near-global space-borne measurements of seasonally resolved upper tropospheric profiles of methanol (CH3OH) by the ACE Fourier transform spectrometer provide a unique opportunity to evaluate our understanding of this important oxygenated organic species. ACE-FTS observations from March 2004 to August 2005 period are presented. These observations reveal the pervasive imprint of surface sources on upper tropospheric methanol: mixing ratios observed in the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere reflect the seasonal cycle of the biogenic emissions whereas the methanol cycle observed in the southern tropics is highly influenced by biomass burning emissions. The comparison with distributions simulated by the state-of-the-art global chemistry transport model, LMDz-INCA, suggests that: (i) the background methanol (high southern latitudes) is correctly represented by the model considering the measurement uncertainties; (ii) the current emissions from the continental biosphere are underestimated during spring and summer in the Northern Hemisphere leading to an underestimation of modelled upper tropospheric methanol; (iii) the seasonal variation of upper tropospheric methanol is shifted to the fall in the model suggesting either an insufficient destruction of CH3OH (due to too weak chemistry and/or deposition) in fall and winter months or an unfaithful representation of transport; (iv) the impact of tropical biomass burning emissions on upper tropospheric methanol is rather well reproduced by the model. This study illustrates the potential of these first global profile observations of oxygenated compounds in the upper troposphere to improve our understanding of their global distribution, fate and budget.

Improved impacts in observing system simulation experiments of radio occultation observations as a result of model and data assimilation changes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. CUCURULL ◽  
S. P. F. CASEY
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Radio Occultation ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Forward Operator

AbstractAs global data assimilation systems continue to evolve, Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) need to be updated to accurately quantify the impact of proposed observing technologies in weather forecasting. Earlier OSSEs with radio occultation (RO) observations have been updated and the impact of the originally proposed Constellation Observing Satellites for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate-2 (COSMIC-2) mission, with a high-inclination and low-inclination component, has been investigated by using the operational data assimilation system at NOAA and a 1-dimensional bending angle RO forward operator. It is found that the impact of the low-inclination component of the originally planned COSMIC-2 mission (now officially named COSMIC-2) has significantly increased as compared to earlier studies, and significant positive impact is now found globally in terms of mass and wind fields. These are encouraging results as COSMIC-2 was successfully launched in June 2019 and data have been recently released to operational weather centers. Earlier findings remain valid indicating that globally distributed RO observations are more important to improve weather prediction globally than a denser sampling of the tropical latitudes. Overall, the benefits reported here from assimilating RO soundings are much more significant than the impacts found in previous OSSEs. This is largely attributed to changes in the data assimilation and forecast system and less to the more advanced 1-dimensional forward operator chosen for the assimilation of RO observations.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document